Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1133 PM MDT sun may 19 2013
Aviation...
06z taf cycle
scattered virga showers continuing overnight...with the potential
for wind gusts to near 45 miles per hour and short-lived MVFR visibility reductions
in blowing dust. Look for more of the same by Monday afternoon.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the taf
period with a moderate westerly low level flow. Winds will trend
down Monday compared to Sunday.
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&&
Previous discussion...714 PM MDT sun may 19 2013...
very minor update to zone forecast product to remove Wind Advisory
wording. No further updates anticipated.
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Previous discussion...259 PM MDT sun may 19 2013...
virga showers and gusty winds certainly got going a little earlier
than yesterday...and extended much further south than originally
thought. Appears now that the showers are waning south of I-40 and
the dry air is taking over. Put sprinkles with gusty winds in the weather
grids through 9 PM...though whats left may diminish before then.
Quite a bit of instability exists across the north...with laps
analysis indicated lifted indices between -2 and -4. A weak boundary
worked into northeast nm this morning...extending as far south as
ktcc for a time...but this boundary has largely washed out. A few
showers and thunderstorms have formed in its wake however...though they are
not producing much precipitation either.
Winds are still coming up...so will leave Wind Advisory intact for
now. So far...wind speeds have been a bit subadvisory...but peak
heating/mixing is still an hour or two away.
Otherwise...winds should subside this evening...and the boundary
across the northeast will push back into the area. It should hang up
in that area for much of the day tomorrow as westerly winds pick
back up with the secondary trough passage across the north. The
boundary/front should make some progress Monday evening once the
westerlies diminish a bit. Higher dewpoints should get ushered in by
the back door front...but it looks to largely mix out on Tuesday.
Thus...minimal precipitation chances continue for northern/NE areas
Monday and Tuesday.
Shortwave ridging still on tap for Wednesday...and temperatures will warm
accordingly. Precipitation potential will be the least on Wednesday.
Models continue having a hard time resolving what the West Coast
upper low will do for late in the week and weekend. What seems
certain is the diurnal sloshing of the dryline across the eastern
plains...but less certainty with how far west the moisture will make
it. So...there could be some storms...perhaps strong/severe...
across the plains...but just how much of the plains that could be
impacted remains up for debate. 12z Euro is back to being less
bullish on the moisture return...and keeps stronger west/SW winds
aloft.
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Fire weather...
..areas of critical fire weather through Monday then winds easing...
Breezy to windy conditions with low relative humidity again this afternoon for
central and southern areas...enough for a continuation of current
red flag warnings. Considered canceling for the northeast Highlands
and plains as back door front came into this area during the morning.
This has held down winds and temperatures. But the front has turned
back to the northeast and at least southern portions of the northeast
zones should receive red flag warning criteria late this afternoon
through early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
concentrated over the northern mountains and northeast this
afternoon. But some gusty showers have also developed over central
areas down to Interstate 40. Showers and storms will be a mix of wet
and dry through this evening...with wetting rains few and far
between. A few lingering rain and snow showers over the northern
mountains and far northeast late tonight. Fair to poor relative humidity recoveries
tonight.
It still looks like Monday will be the last critical fire weather day
for at least a couple of days. Main focus for Monday is portions of
the Rio Grande Valley east to the Texas border. Daytime highs will
ease down again...but only a little. With these cooler temperatures
the risk of widespread significant fire weather concerns covers a
more restricted area than today or Saturday. Will continue with
current red flag warning. Min relative humidity values from 8 to 15 percent in the
warning area...mostly teens through the 20s elsewhere. A few showers
and isolated storms will be confined to the northern mountains and
northeast. Excellent ventilation rates will again be the rule. Back
door cold front to slide down the eastern plains again Monday into
Tuesday morning...bringing some increase in dewpoints in its wake.
Dry and warmer with less wind across nearly all of forecast area Tuesday
and Wednesday. Just a few lingering showers over the northern
mountains Tuesday. The warmup will be delayed until Wednesday over
the east Central Plains. Min relative humidity values will not change much Tuesday
but will lower to the 5 to 15 percent range for Wednesday. Continued
excellent vent rates both days.
Interesting forecast for later this week through the upcoming
Holiday weekend. A big ol storm will set up over the Pacific
northwest by Wednesday of next week with a light to moderate
southwest flow over the state. It will be a battle between this
southwest flow aloft and ridging to the east...bringing either
enough wind and dry air to western New Mexico for potential critical
fire weather conditions...or weaker flow aloft and high enough low
level moisture to prevent any critical fire weather issues. Either
way...the surface flow will be from the south or southeast across
the eastern plains with the potential for dry line storms Thursday
into the Holiday weekend near the Texas border. So...we could end up
seeing a scenario where we get storms in the far east and critical
fire weather in the west or at least northwest. Right now the min
relative humidity values are plenty low enough in the west but wind is the limiting
factor.
Also seeing signs of super Haines over the west Thursday through at
least Saturday. High Haines values for sure. Mostly excellent vent
rates to continue into next weekend.
Chj
Aviation...
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions to remain the case through Monday morning with strong
and gusty winds being the main aviation weather issue. Low level
west to northwest flow will bring gusts to between 35 and 40 kts
at klvs and ktcc. Spotty instances of bldu across the eastern
plains with gusts to 45 kts possible. High based virga showers and
isolated storms across north half of forecast area this afternoon may
be capable of producing gusts as high as 50 knots. Rather robust
showers forming early over the northern and western mountains late
this morning and even around saf and abq. Will carry a vcsh in
gup...abq...saf and lvs for a couple of hours early this afternoon.
Otherwise no convection in taf forecasts but will have to monitor
fmn. Mountain obscurations not expected with high cloud bases forecast.
Winds and convection to subside early to middle evening leaving no
significant hazards most of tonight.
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones...nmz106>108.
&&
$$
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