Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
325 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Discussion...
interesting weather coming up for New Mexico with very dry weather
in the west with fire weather concerns...while increasing moisture
in the east will lead to showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the
weekend. In between...there could be a few mostly dry thunderstorms with
gusty winds and dry lightning strikes.
Ridge of high pressure overhead bringing nm a mostly sunny and
very warm day. Tonight will be dry and comfortable with mainly
clear skies.
The ridge aloft will shift east while a back door front slips into
NE nm Thursday. Surface winds will be from the S over much of the eastern
plains with an easterly component in the far NE. Low level moisture
will combine with good instability over the east to produce isolated
showers and storms in the PM...with scattered activity in the far
eastern plains Thursday evening. Included mention of small hail and gusty
winds during the PM and evening over the eastern plains. Meanwhile
the western edge of the convection could produce mostly dry showers
and storms with some dry lightning. West of the central mountains will
be very dry and warm with enough wind for some fire weather concerns
over the west central mountains.
Friday could end up being the most active day with low to middle level
moisture pressed up against the east side of the central mountains.
Isolated showers and storms for the central mountains and High
Plains and scattered farther east to the Texas border. Again included
small hail and gusty winds but held off on severe weather wording
for now. Continued dry and warm in the west. Mentioned some dry storms
over the western fringe of the probability of precipitation.
Downward trend in the convection to begin over the Holiday weekend
as the SW flow aloft increases enough to bring drier middle level air
into the eastern portions of the state. Sat may be just about as
active as Friday although more dry storms could be noted over the west
edge of the convection. Sun should see a noticeable downward trend
with Monday looking completely dry. Temperatures over the Holiday
weekend will remain mostly above normal. A trough of low pressure
will swing slowly through the SW U.S. For the middle of next week.
Chj
&&
Fire weather...
..red flag conditions will impact the northwest Highlands
Thursday with very dry and unstable conditions...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday
across portions of central and western New Mexico as a shortwave
ridge gives way to prolonged southwesterly flow aloft. A red flag
warning for the northwest Highlands is in effect for Thursday
between 19z and 02z as breezy southwesterly winds and very dry air
will create critical fire conditions. Several hours of single digit
relative humidity values and a couple hours with super Haines should be expected.
Dropped zones 101 and 103 from the watch as winds trended down below
thresholds and critical fire areas were more localized. However...a
few hours of red flag conditions will still be possible in each area.
Spotty areas of critical fire weather conditions are on going across
western New Mexico as stronger winds mix down to the surface this
afternoon. Cumulus cloud build up over the sangre Delaware cristos will
continue through the early evening...though only a brief gusty
outflow is expected. Otherwise...conditions will be calm overnight
with generally light winds and poor relative humidity recoveries across central
and western nm. A weak back door front will push into the far
northeast corner of the state...bringing a northerly wind shift
and increased moisture across the area. Fair to good relative humidity recoveries
will result from this moisture surge. Southerly flow across the
far southeast plains will help bring moisture from the Gulf and
lead to fair to good relative humidity recoveries.
Southwesterly flow will increase Thursday across the western two
thirds of New Mexico...as relative humidity values will again be in the lower teens
to single digits. A few hours of critical fire weather conditions
will impact the Rio Grande Valley...the eastern slopes of the sangre
Delaware cristo mountains near Las Vegas...and localized areas in the
northwest plateau along with the mentioned warned areas. Southerly
flow in the southeast plains and easterly flow in the northeast
will prevent a plummet of dewpoints east as a strong midlevel dry
slot pushes across the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will develop along and ahead of a dry line later in the day and
increase in coverage by Friday morning with additional moisture
advection. A dry lightning strike will be possible along the
eastern slopes of the sangres as wetting rain will be unlikely.
Vent rates and Haines values near 6 is expected across the state.
A few low clouds...patchy fog...and light showers are possible
Friday morning as a backdoor front makes a second surge into
northeast nm. Friday still appears to be the best chance for more
widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage as a more well defined
dry line will form. Dry lightning will be possible along the Central
Mountain chain where minimal wetting rain is expected. Otherwise...
another day of breezy southwesterly winds creating a few hours of
critical fire weather central and west. An hour or two of super
Haines in south central New Mexico is expected as well. Vent rates
remain excellent all areas with temperatures remaining above normal.
The upper level low over the Pacific northwest is slowing its
eventual push across the state. This will allow conditions to remain
fairly unchanged for Saturday and Sunday...though the dry line will
form further east each day and limit the amount of coverage of
shower and thunderstorm activity. Expect relative humidity values and mixing
heights to trend downward. Above normal temperatures and poor relative humidity
recoveries will persist into early next week...before a shortwave
trough crosses the state. The models are depicting the trough to be
deeper and slower than previous runs...and thus not passing the
state till middle week. 24
&&
Aviation...
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions to persist as a shortwave ridge passes over the
state. Some cumulus cloud buildup over the northern mountains is
expected this afternoon... though coverage will be less than
previous days. A gusty outflow or two from an isolated shower and
thunderstorm will be possible but primarily limited to the sangre
Delaware cristo mountains along the New Mexico Colorado border. Afternoon
winds will increase out of the southwest central and west with
more southerly winds east. A weak northerly and easterly wind
shift is expected early Thursday morning across northeast New
Mexico.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 47 87 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 37 82 38 80 / 0 0 5 0
Cuba............................ 42 84 41 83 / 0 0 5 0
Gallup.......................... 40 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 37 79 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 42 84 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 45 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 43 87 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 34 75 37 73 / 5 0 5 0
Los Alamos...................... 51 81 53 79 / 0 0 5 5
Pecos........................... 50 78 50 75 / 0 5 10 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 42 78 43 77 / 5 5 5 10
Red River....................... 35 68 37 67 / 5 10 10 10
Angel Fire...................... 32 72 34 70 / 5 10 20 20
Taos............................ 38 81 42 79 / 5 5 5 10
Mora............................ 45 77 46 74 / 5 10 20 20
Espanola........................ 48 86 49 84 / 0 0 5 5
Santa Fe........................ 49 80 51 78 / 0 0 5 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 47 87 50 84 / 0 0 5 10
Albuquerque foothills........... 56 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque heights............. 57 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque valley.............. 54 91 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 52 92 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 53 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 58 97 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 86 51 85 / 0 0 5 5
Tijeras......................... 53 87 53 85 / 0 0 5 5
Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 85 49 82 / 0 0 5 10
Clines Corners.................. 50 84 50 81 / 0 5 10 20
Gran Quivira.................... 54 86 53 84 / 0 0 5 10
Carrizozo....................... 55 89 54 87 / 0 0 5 10
Ruidoso......................... 53 81 52 77 / 0 5 20 30
Capulin......................... 46 72 51 78 / 5 20 30 20
Raton........................... 43 78 49 83 / 5 20 30 20
Springer........................ 44 81 49 82 / 5 20 30 20
Las Vegas....................... 47 81 47 78 / 0 10 20 20
Clayton......................... 50 76 55 82 / 5 20 40 30
Roy............................. 50 80 53 81 / 0 20 30 30
Conchas......................... 52 87 57 87 / 5 10 20 20
Santa Rosa...................... 56 89 58 86 / 0 10 20 20
Tucumcari....................... 57 93 62 89 / 5 20 30 30
Clovis.......................... 55 91 60 84 / 5 20 30 30
Portales........................ 57 92 62 85 / 5 20 30 40
Fort Sumner..................... 56 93 61 86 / 5 10 20 30
Roswell......................... 60 98 64 89 / 5 20 20 30
Picacho......................... 57 93 57 86 / 0 5 20 30
Elk............................. 56 88 56 81 / 0 5 20 30
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones...nmz105.
&&
$$
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