Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1143 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013
Aviation...
06z taf cycle
convection has moved out of eastern nm this evening...and at this
time...is not expected to redevelop overnight. Residual cloud
cover will continue to diminish...leaving mainly just high clouds
streaming across the state. Occasional gusty S/SW winds will
be possible overnight across the plains. Otherwise..expect west to SW
winds to quickly pick up between 17-19z Sunday areawide. Strongest
winds are expected east of the Central Mountain chain where gusts
to 40kt will be possible. Strong winds will create localized areas
of bldu...especially along and east of a line from ktcc to krow
that did not see appreciable rain this evening.
34
&&
Previous discussion...311 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013...
..extended period of critical fire weather conditions next 7 days...
A long wave trough will linger over the northwest US until Tuesday when
it will deepen and shift eastward over the Rocky Mountain states.
This will keep nm under SW flow aloft...which will gradually
strengthen and veer a little more westerly each day through
Monday. The dry line is far enough west today for scattered
thunderstorms to cross the east central and southeast plains this
evening. However...the stronger westerly component of the flow
Sunday should relegate dry line thunderstorms within about one
County of the Texas border. The dry line may only make it as far west
as Clovis and Portales on Monday. A surface Lee trough will
strengthen enough Sunday for southwest winds to gust around 40 miles per hour
from eastern Socorro to Union counties. Otherwise widespread
coverage of breezy conditions is expected Sunday...and these winds
will couple with very dry air for fire weather concerns in central
and eastern areas. Fire weather concerns may persist across eastern
areas Monday as breezy conditions linger. High temperatures
through Monday will generally vary from a few to 14 degrees above
normal...except for some slight cooling across the northwest
Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday...a deeper shortwave trough will rotate
through the long wave pattern and clip northern nm as it crosses
the central rockies. This will keep winds aloft strong over
nm with continued fire weather concerns across southern and
eastern areas. It may also bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the northwest half of the forecast area. The upper
trough could be deep enough to draw the dry line deeper into the
eastern plains Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. However...there is
some model disagreement on this since the westerly component of
the flow through a surface Lee trough could be strong enough to
shift the dry line east of New Mexico...especially Wednesday.
Temperatures are forecast to trend downward tueaday and especially
Wednesday as the upper level trough crosses. Highs Wednesday will
vary from around normal in the east to as much as 12 degrees below
normal in the west.
During the latter half of the coming work week...the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
are in good agreement that a broad upper level low pressure system
will pass slowly eastward across the northern and central rockies.
This should steer the polar jet stream from west to east over
northern and central New Mexico and keep our winds breezy to
windy with continued fire weather concerns. It should also keep
temperatures near to below normal. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday in case the upper
low can funnel moisture far enough south to spark a few cells.
44
Fire weather...
as was the case Friday...dryline storms are firing over the
eastern plains and these will consolidate into the late afternoon
and early evening with the best shot for wetting rains over the
east central and southeast plains. Farther west parched and breezy
conditions leading to isolated marginal critical conditions again
today. Recoveries tonight will trend even lower for a more
widespread area with lots of poor values along and west of the
central Montana chain. A deepening surface low over southeast Colorado Sunday
will force these poor recoveries into a 6 to 10 hour duration of
single digit relative humidity values for the Rio Grande Valley and surrounding
high terrain with breezy conditions. Have upgraded Fire Weather Watch
to red flag for most of watch...except the northern mts where
confidence on strength of winds is not high enough yet.
Monday and Tuesday will be repeats of Sunday with more widespread
hot...dry...breezy...unstable conditions for central and eastern nm.
Have included a watch as well for Monday across the east where winds
will be the strongest as the surface low deepens even further. It
looks most likely that Tuesday will be the peak critical day with
widespread potential. Relative humidity recoveries through this period will be just
downright poor for almost all areas...which leads into significant
duration of single digit relative humidity both Monday and Tuesday. Haines values
are 6 across the board and temperatures are above normal...especially at
night for the east.
Wednesday is trending more dry as medium range guidance is coming
into better agreement the upper wave will take shape across the
northern rockies. While the potential for a Pacific front and cooler
temperatures is still a good bet Wednesday...winds and very dry
conditions will continue for most areas with the exceptio of the
far northern high terrain. There will at least be a break with maximum
relative humidity recoveries Wednesday and Thursday mornings...but min values are
still forecast in the 10s and 20s.
Thursday and Friday look breezy to windy again as a potent dry slot
ejects east across nm in the base of the stationary upper trough in
the northern rockies. Coordination with Storm Prediction Center indicates a 6 day period
of critical conditions possible for the region...which may actually
be more like 7 to 9 days in reality. Interestingly models then force
a potent moist back door into the eastern plains Monday week after
next while the Summer high builds over the state. This forecasts a
monsoon type pattern for the region into the extended.
Guyer
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from 11 am to 9 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones...nmz103-104-106>108.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
the following zones...nmz103-104-108.
Fire Weather Watch from 11 am MDT Sunday through Sunday evening for
the following zones...nmz102.
&&
$$
