Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1045 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a cold front will slowly move south of the region overnight. Our
weather will improve for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
settles in with dry and pleasant conditions. Generally fair
conditions...along with a gradual warming trend...is expected for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 1040 PM EDT...shower activity only lingering across extreme
eastern Litchfield County. Other activity has moved south out of
the forecast area. Radiational fog has developed on kgfl already
so have expanded the time have patchy fog mentioned for overnight.
Adjusted temperatures...dew points and sky cover based on
observational data and trends.
As of 815 PM EDT...scattered showers continue to develop across
Dutchess...Ulster and Litchfield counties. This activity is
expected to come to an end this evening. Early flood advisories
all have been cancelled.
The cold front has presses southward...winds across southern New
England and Long Island have shifted to the northeast. The surface
low will move off the middle Atlantic coast this evening and out to
sea overnight taking the frontal boundary further away from the
region. Drier air will continue to work in from the north with
gradually clearing occurring as high pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes region. Have added patchy fog to the forecast for late
at night mainly for the river valleys with clearing skies...light
winds and wet ground.
As of 415 PM EDT...the cold front...and accompanying line of
showers and thunderstorms...continues to sag very slowly southward
across southeast New York state and western CT. Although the main boundary and
strongest thunderstorms have shifted south of the County Warning Area...locally
heavy rainfall continues to affect portions of southern Litchfield
County and Dutchess Colorado. Will need to watch this over the next few
hours in cast cells train across this region...leading to ponding
of water in low lying...poor drainage/urban areas...or any
isolated flash flooding.
Further north...some spotty light showers/sprinkles remain...and
will retain slight chance probability of precipitation to areas across central Berkshire
Colorado...west into the eastern Catskills...with high chance further S and
east. Will also keep mention of thunderstorms...possibly with heavy
rain across far southeast areas for another 1-3 hours.
Otherwise...we expect the showers across far southeast areas to
linger through this evening...before gradually ending around or
after midnight. Elsewhere...clouds should gradually thin/clear out
from northwest to southeast later tonight. For min temperatures...have sided with the
slightly warmer met MOS...especially given a relatively moist boundary
layer...and also wet soil conditions across the region.
Therefore...expect mins to fall into the 40s across the southern
Adirondacks...and upper 40s to middle 50s across the Hudson Valley
region and western New England...with some upper 50s to around 60
across portions of the middle Hudson Valley.
&&
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
Wednesday-Thursday nt...high pressure will build across the region during this
time frame...with mostly sunny/clear skies. Temperatures will be quite
cool on Wednesday...despite mostly sunny skies. Have sided with the
cooler met MOS for Wednesday maxes...since the NAM tends to handle
shallow cool air masses best. Expect maximum temperatures Wednesday to reach 70-75
in valleys...except for some upper 70s across the middle Hudson
Valley. Wednesday nt/Thursday am mins should fall into the 40s across much of
the north country...with even some isolated upper 30s across
sheltered valleys across the southern Adirondacks and possibly
southern Vermont. Elsewhere...expect mins to fall into the upper 40s to
middle 50s. On Thursday...expect temperatures to warm slightly...with 75-80 in
valleys...and 70-75 across higher elevations. Thursday nt mins should
be a bit milder than Wednesday nt/Thursday am...with mins mainly in the
50s...except 40s across the north country.
&&
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
for Friday/Friday nt...a weak upper level disturbance is expected to
pass across the region Friday. Moisture appears limited...and upper
level support is not terribly impressive. However...there might be
just enough shallow instability across southeast areas to allow for
isolated showers to form in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures should reach
the upper 70s to lower 80s in valleys...and middle 70s across higher
elevations. For min temperatures...expect mainly 50s.
For Sat-Tue...most global model guidance indicates a warm and increasingly
humid pattern developing during this time period...as upper level
ridging builds across eastern Continental U.S.. diurnal
instability...possibly combined with any weak upper level impulses
passing north of the Great Lakes into northern New England...and
developing low level boundaries could trigger scattered...mainly
diurnal convection for Sunday-Tuesday. The chances for convection
may be a little less on Sat...when only slight chance probability of precipitation are
indicated for isolated areal coverage of convection.
Temperatures will climb to above normal levels...with daytime maxes
mainly in the lower 80s in Sat...then middle/upper 80s for
sun-Tue...with even warmer maxes possible. Overnight mins should
fall into the 50s to lower 60s for Sat am...then mainly 60s in
valleys...with middle/upper 50s across higher elevations for sun am-Tuesday
am.
&&
Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
the cold front has presses southward...winds across southern New
England and Long Island have shifted to the northeast. The surface
low is moving middle Atlantic coast and will move out to sea overnight
taking the frontal boundary further away from the region. Shower
activity lingers across extreme eastern Litchfield County otherwise
it has moved south of the forecast area. Drier air will continue
to work in from the north with gradually clearing occurring as
high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. However with
the clearing skies...light winds and wet ground fog is expected to
develop. IFR fog has already formed at kgfl and will persist
through the overnight. MVFR/near MVFR conditions dominating at
kpsf and kpou overnight with a period of IFR expected at kpsf. At
kalb VFR conditions are expected to prevail with some MVFR
possible a period overnight. An improvement to VFR is expected
after sunrise Wednesday then continue through the day.
Light and variable to calm overnight will become northwest to
north at 5 to 10 knots Wednesday with a more northeasterly winds
at kgfl.
Outlook...
Wednesday night-Fri...mainly VFR. No sig weather. Possible bl late night
fog at kgfl/kpsf. Sat-sun...mainly VFR. Slight chance -tsra/-shra.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns at this time due to the recent wet
weather.
A cold front will slowly move south of the region tonight. Our
weather will improve for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
settles in with dry and pleasant conditions.
&&
Hydrology...
flows remain above normal for middle June across the Hydro service
area.
Scattered showers continue to develop across Dutchess...Ulster and
Litchfield counties. This activity is expected to come to an end
this evening. Early flood advisories all have been cancelled.
Dry weather is expected to return late tonight into
Thursday...allowing rivers to continue to gradually lower from the
very wet weather the past few weeks.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.
&&
Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...iaa/kl/gjm
near term...iaa/kl
short term...kl
long term...kl
aviation...iaa/NAS
fire weather...kl/gjm
hydrology...kl/gjm
