Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
822 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
a chilly...northerly flow of air will be over our area for the next
few days. This will cause cold nights and breezy days. Also...a low
moving though New England will bring a chance of showers...mainly
over the eastern areas...into Saturday.
&&
Near term /through Saturday/...
750 PM update...
temperatures were running slightly below plan, so made minor
adjustments to near term temperatures and overnight lows. Mins should
range from 31 to 36 degrees. However winds will stay up around 5
to 10 mph, making it difficult for frost to form.
4 PM update...
precipitation associated with the upper low continues to pull slowly
east. Back edge of the precipitation is mixed with sleet and snow at
times...making for an all time record for latest snow recorded at
bgm. Short term models show continued ewrd progress through the night bring
and end to the precipitation for all but the far east. Prblm arises as enough
dry air gets in that some clearing seems likely...especially over the western
zones...bringing the possiblity of frost. Wrkg against the frost will
be the wind...which is forecasted to remain at or above 10 kts at the surface
through the night. Have decided to go with caution and Post an advisory
for Steuben County...where gridded data suggest some of the deeper
valleys could go light and temperatures aprch 32f.
&&
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
models slowly coming into agreement with the slow mvmt of the upper
low...in fact backing it a bit bringing precipitation back to the west on
Sat. NAM is still the most optimistic with the GFS now siding with
the European model (ecmwf) with the track of the low. In any case...bit of a difficult
forecast with a sharp back edge to the clouds which could result in a
large dfrnc from west to east across the forecast area...from sun to
cold rain. Other cncrn is the continued threat of frost and which area
may be affected. As with tonight...position of the low will help keep
winds up in most clrd areas limiting the chance for frost. Xcptn
may be Sun night when the gradient finally relaxs as the upper low kicks
east. So...best chance for widespread frost may actually be
Memorial Day.
Model guidance was in rsnbl agree emt through the period ldg a higher than normal
confidence in the temperatures forecast. However...still remain tricky with a 10
to 15 degree hi temperature dfrnc easily possible across the area both Sat
and sun.
&&
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
fairly well advertised warm up expected this coming week as broad
upper ridging builds across the northeastern US. Before this
occurs however...forecast models continue to show a frontal boundary
remaining stalled southwest of the forecast area with developing
showers/possible thunder Tuesday through Thursday as a series of
weak shortwave disturbances ride along the developing East Coast
ridge axis building from our south. As a result...have maintained chance
thunder mention across the County Warning Area through the period before
advertising drying conditions by late week. Initial look at
developing synoptic pattern suggests conditions may become
favorable for a northwest flow severe convection setup with our
region residing on the northern periphery of developing middle-level
temperature anomaly to our southwest. Too early from this Vantage
Point to get too excited but trends will have to be monitored as
the timing nears. With forecast 850-hpa temperatures expected to warm well
into the upper teens...forecast highs by Thursday and Friday will likely warm
well into the 80s once the front finally passes.
&&
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a moist northwest upslope flow will continue over the region
through this taf period. Currently, widespread low MVFR/MVFR ceilings
exists over the terminals. Through 03z, brief IFR conditions are
possible at kith. Later tonight as some drier low level air
advects into the region ceilings will lift into the MVFR/low VFR
category. On Saturday, strato cumulus will continue around 4k feet.
Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming much stronger and gusty
by middle morning Saturday at 15-20 knots with gusts around 25-30 knots.
Outlook...
Sun-Wed...VFR.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...frost advisory from 2 am to 7 am EDT Saturday for nyz022.
&&
$$
Synopsis...dgm
near term...dgm/djp
short term...dgm
long term...cmg
aviation...rrm
