Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
136 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
other than a few evening showers...high pressure will provide dry
and seasonable weather to the region through Friday morning. A
weak frontal boundary sagging south into the region may spark a
few showers by Friday and Saturday afternoon...but most areas
should remain dry. Temperatures gradually warm through the period
with more humid conditions expected by later in the weekend and
into early next week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1249 am EDT Wednesday...going forecast in good shape and
very little changes needed. Tweaked temperatures to match current
conditions...but overnight lows still on track. Seeing some low
clouds and fog developing across Rutland County and have added
some fog to the forecast. Fog along the Connecticut River valley
already forming and grids have this covered well. Otherwise...rest of
grids remain untouched.
&&
Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday night/...
as of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...outstanding stretch of weather then
expected for the middle portions of the work week (wed/thu) as
aforementioned surface high pressure builds directly atop the
region. Thus clear to partly cloudy skies expected with some
shallow depth fair weather cumulus occurring each day over the
elevated terrain during the afternoon hours. Winds light.
Averaged 18-00z model blended 925 mb thermal forecasts support highs
from 68 to 74 on Wednesday...then 2-4 degrees milder 71 to 77 or
so by Thursday. Overnight lows 38 to 48 Wednesday night...though with
customary variability given expected nocturnal radiative effects.
By Thursday night clear to partly cloudy skies continue as high
pressure continues to remain dominant influence. Models maintain
the idea that a weak/dying frontal boundary will attempt to sag
southward toward the international border by sunrise Friday. Kept with the
idea of mainly dry weather...but did increase cloud cover just a
tad far north to account for uncertainty in the eventual location
of the boundary. Lows a tad milder as light south/southwesterly
return flow expected...mainly 45 to 55.
&&
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 415 PM EDT Tuesday...generally warm surface high pressure
will be over the north country through much of the extended
portion of the forecast. Maximum temperatures will start out in the upper
70s and trend towards middle 80s by early next week. Min temperatures will
trend from the middle 50s to the middle 60s. Initially region will be
under influence of progressive northwesterly upper level flow and
there will be several chances for showers from Friday through
Sunday with shortwaves passing through brisk upper level flow.
Difficult to time these small features at this point...therefore
have a lot of slight chance probability of precipitation. Large and hot upper level ridge
will slide eastward and across our forecast area during the early
part of next week and thicknesses approach 588. Think that with
heat and humidity moving into the area will have chance for some
instability showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours
next week...but again difficult to figure out timing and location
this far out.
&&
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 06z Thursday...surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to bring VFR conditions to the btv airspace through
the period. Only flight condition issues will be ongoing fog at
krut and possible br/fog at kmpv for the overnight hours through
about 12z. Otherwise...clear skies tonight will give way to some
diurnal cumulus from 15-00z before clearing again for Wednesday night.
Generally light north to northwest winds are expected through the
period...slightly stronger in the Champlain Valley.
Outlook 06z Wednesday through Sunday...
06z Wednesday through 06z Friday...VFR under high pressure with
patchy late night/early morning fog possible 06-12z each
morning...with the greatest potential at kslk/kmpv.
06z Friday through Sunday...generally VFR with isolated/scattered
afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible.
&&
Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...jmg
near term...evenson
short term...jmg
long term...neiles
aviation...lahiff
