Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
841 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Synopsis...
low pressure over the Great Lakes will move northeast into Quebec
Thursday morning. A cold front trailing this low will sweep east
across the local area early Thursday. A secondary cold front will
follow Thursday evening. An area of Canadian high pressure will
then build over the region from the north through the weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Just not enough
instability to get the activity going and drying in the column is
increasing. I can see out the window the ongoing entrainment in
the cumulus. That being said... there is plenty of wind aloft...30-35
knots at 3k and 50 knots at 20k...that some of the showers and
thunderstorms will still produce brief gusty winds. Will continue
to monitor in the event we may need to issue a short lived Severe
Thunderstorm Warning for any of the showers/storms ahead of the
trough crossing western Ohio.
Will taper precipitation chances down after midnight and also remove the
mention of thunder although a few showers will probably continue
across NE Ohio/northwest PA. It will take all night to get the weakening
trough past the eastern counties.
&&
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night/...
a cold front will settle across the area on Thursday ushering in a
distinct air mass change. Wrap around moisture behind the front
will lead to widespread showers developing. Will need 70 percent
or higher probability of precipitation all areas by midday. Drying will occur behind a
secondary front late in the day and most of the area should see
clearing tomorrow night. Some showers could linger in the east
into Thursday evening. After that the remainder of the period will
be dry. The air mass set to settle over the area for the weekend
will be very cold with 850 mb temperatures down to around zero. If winds
lessen as expected...we may have to contend with some
front...especially across the east. No mention yet but have got
low temperatures down into the middle 3os both Friday and Saturday
nights. High temperatures will struggle into the 60s the next couple of
days.
&&
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
upper level pattern trending toward amplification of the upper level
ridge into the central United States by Sunday. This will cause
trough over the eastern Seaboard to lift northeast away from the
region. As upper level ridge and associated surface high pressure
center builds over the region by Monday morning...expecting clearing
skies and good radiational cooling to take place...especially east.
This will likely bring a return threat for some frost over those
areas. Warm air advection should start to take place over the west
half of the area enough to prevent frost from developing. Will
mention patchy frost possible in the eastern portions of the area as
temperatures dip into the middle 30s by Monday morning.
Good news on the horizon will be the large broad ridge that develops
over the eastern two thirds of the United States by Wednesday. This
will set up a surface Bermuda high pressure allowing for a warm
south to southwest flow to develop into the middle of the week. This
means we could see our first potential stretch of very warm and
muggy air. Until then...a massive warm up is in store for the middle
of next week.
Latest model runs consistent in potential for severe weather next
Wednesday night. Will have to continue to see if the models remain
consistent through the next seven days.
&&
Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
across the area this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from
the west. A few storms have been strong enough to cause gusts to 45
knots but this threat is isolated and will decrease through
03z. Tafs will be updated as needed if a strong thunderstorm
approaches a terminal.
Otherwise winds will remain out of the southwest tonight with MVFR
clouds arriving between 10-14z. The colder air will push southeast
across the area between 16-21z and will be accompanied by showers
and a wind shift to the northwest. Ceilings will continue to fall on
Thursday night and may reach IFR at some sites.
Outlook...non VFR Thursday night and Friday morning.
&&
Marine...
winds will be from the southwest through tonight as low pressure
passes just north of the lake. Cold front will shift east into the
region Thursday and cause winds to become northerly by Thursday
afternoon. This will in turn cause Small Craft Advisory flags to
fly. I anticipate small craft advisories will likely be needed
through Friday when winds finally diminish and go light northwest. A
bit of an increase in the north to northeast winds till take place
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and then diminish once again
for Sunday into Monday.
&&
Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...kosarik/kubina
near term...kosarik/kubina
short term...kubina
long term...Lombardy
aviation...kec
marine...Lombardy
