Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
637 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Discussion...updated for 12z aviation.
&&
Aviation...MVFR ceilings will continue for a few more hours with
VFR conditions returning later this morning. Southeasterly winds
will increase by midday with gusts at or above 30 knots at ali/crp/vct
during the afternoon hours. Gusts expected not to be as strong at
lrd. Winds will diminish after 01z with another round of stratus
with MVFR ceilings developing at ali/crp/vct this evening.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT sun may 19 2013/
Short term (today through monday)...moderate onshore flow has
brought stratus into south Texas this morning. As with the last
several days...expect stratus to dissipate later this morning once
mixing commences and southeast winds increase. Forecast remains
similar to the last few days as warm and capped atmosphere will
prevail across south Texas. Above normal temperatures will
continue with lower 100s out west to near 90 across the northeast
zones. More haze also possible today and tonight as a result of
smoke from agricultural burning over Mexico. Convection not likely
today as well with 700mb temperatures at or above 12 to 13 degrees c so will keep
probability of precipitation below mentionable levels. More stratus expected this upcoming
night with overnight lows remaining in the 70s in all locations.
Persistence forecast continues into Monday with warm/hot
temperatures again.
Long term (monday night through saturday)...a benign summertime
pattern still expected over the area through much of the long term
period. High pressure ridge with capping inversion the rule through
most of the week. The one caveat is Tuesday night and Wednesday as
a surface boundary approaches with an upper level disturbance. There
is also some upper level jet support coincident with moisture
pooling and Theta-E ridge. Still unsure about cap strength
at this time 700mb temperatures though cooling slightly to around 11
degrees west...still warm enough to keep the area under a cap. The
Canadian model however would indicate slightly cooler temperatures. 850
temperatures still quite warm as well.
Otherwise things remain quiet. Hot temperatures early in the period
gradually cool a degree or two by late week. Light to moderate
onshore flow continues through period with high dewpoints and mild
min temperatures mainly in the 70s.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 92 76 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 89 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 101 78 102 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 95 74 96 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 84 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 100 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy corpus 84 76 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Tb/78...aviation
