Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
615 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Aviation...
an upper trough system to move across the Rocky Mountains tonight
and into the High Plains on Sunday. Southwesterly flow aloft will
continue to bring middle to upper level clouds across the region
through Sunday. At the surface...high pressure ridge across the
Gulf of Mexico will keep a southerly flow over south central Texas
for the entire forecast cycle with winds speeds of 10 to 20 knots
and gusting up to 25 knots...through early this evening and once
again Sunday afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected after
midnight with IFR conditions possible at or about 10z through 14z
Sunday along the i35 terminals. VFR conditions are expected to return
by 17z Sunday. Kdrt will remain VFR through the forecast period.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
weak elevated convection moving northeastward across S central Texas this
afternoon...with the high cloudiness from the Pacific keeping
temperatures down 5-10 degrees over this time Friday. Broad upper
trough over the western Continental U.S. For the next several days will keep
a southwesterly flow aloft across S Texas. Series of disturbances in the southwesterly
flow will track across west/SW Texas across central/North Texas...south
Texas will remain on the southern edge of more organized convection.
Therefore only expect isolated storms each late afternoon and
evening with heating over the higher terrain of The Hill Country
and along the dry line over the Edwards Plateau. Otherwise continued
unseasonably warm Sunday...although the Pacific moisture/clouds
should help keep temperatures shy of record highs.
Long term (monday through saturday)...
little change for Monday from Sunday. By Tuesday chances for
convection increase due to an upper trough dropping into West Texas
and bringing a cold front into central Texas Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate some spotty heavier quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts with the system Tuesday night/early Wednesday as middle level
flow parallels the stalling frontal boundary. However low level
moisture is fairly shallow so expecting average quantitative precipitation forecast amounts to be
fairly meager at a quarter inch or less. A few lingering
showers/storms across the central/eastern County Warning Area Wednesday with the
lingering boundary in the area. Have continued the drying trend
for Thursday-Fri-Sat of next week as upper ridge builds in from the
west and probability of a few airmass daytime storms will be too
low to mention. Have trended with higher guidance temperatures
for late next week into the weekend given the ridging aloft.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 94 73 94 72 / - 10 10 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 93 71 93 71 / - 10 10 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 94 71 94 71 / - 10 10 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 71 92 71 92 69 / - 10 10 10 20
del Rio International Airport 76 102 75 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 91 71 91 69 / - 10 10 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 71 97 71 97 72 / - 10 - 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 93 72 93 72 / - 10 10 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 - 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 72 94 72 94 72 / - 10 - 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 72 94 72 93 73 / - 10 - 10 10
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...17
synoptic/grids...04
public service/data collection...33
