Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
505 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will begin to slide east of the area today offering
dry weather to most of the region. The exception will be the lower
Ohio Valley...where a weak disturbance will result in a few rain
showers. An approaching warm front will provide a chance of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Memorial Day. Temperatures
will then rise above normal for the remainder of next week.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
amplified middle/upper level flow pattern with a large ridge over the
nations middle section. This places the region in northwest flow
regime. Surface high pressure of Canadian origin...to remain across the
Great Lakes. A weak disturbance and associated isentropic lift
resulting in showers across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. With this
feature dropping southeast through the Ohio Valley early...will carry a low
chance of a shower far SW early and then go dry there after. Middle and
high level clouds will thin some with the passage of the
aforementioned shortwave. Below normal temperature will continue
today with highs around 5 degrees below normal...ranging from the
upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
weak isentropic lift develops into the west late tonight. Thus
will allow for a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to
re- develop into west late. Given an increase in clouds...temperatures
will remain on the mild side. Overnight lows will range from the
lower 40s NE to the lower 50s SW where clouds are thickest.
Middle level ridge axis shifts east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
Monday. The GFS/sref mean and more so the European model (ecmwf) support a solution with
precipitation developing NE through iln forecast area with the northwest having the
best chance for rain. Will continue to trend forecast toward a blended
solution weighted toward the sref mean with probability of precipitation increasing early on
Monday but will keep probability of precipitation in chance category at this time due to
uncertainty regarding timing and placement of this complex. Temperatures
will continue to moderate with highs on Monday ranging from near
70 northwest to the middle 70s/upper 70s south.
With warm front lifting NE and middle level ridge building into the
Ohio Valley will diminish probability of precipitation across the south Monday night but hold
onto low chance probability of precipitation across the far north. Mild overnight lows to
continue with readings ranging from the middle/upper 50s north to the
lower 60s SW.
On Tuesday will continue low chance probability of precipitation across the north around the
periphery of the middle level ridge. In the warm sector temperatures will warm
to readings about 5 to 7 degrees above normal. Expect mondays highs
to range from near 80 north to the Lower/Middle 80s southwest.
&&
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
ridging builds in at the surface and aloft which will result in
dry conditions and above normal temperatures. An approaching
system could start to get close enough by Saturday to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far northwest counties.
But probability looks rather low at this point.
&&
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
though showers associated with a weak disturbance will remain in
the vicinity of luk and cvg for the next several hours...VFR
flight conditions will persist at all sites owing to the lack of
low level moisture. After this round of showers ends...middle and
high clouds will linger before showers recur with another
disturbance late in the forecast period. Winds will stay under 10
knots with direction variable in relation to the weak
disturbance.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
&&
Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Arkansas
near term...Arkansas
short term...Arkansas
long term...
aviation...coniglio
