Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
125 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry air over
the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. This high will move
off the East Coast Thursday night as an upper level ridge builds
over the eastern U.S. Through the weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will result in mostly
sunny skies today. In weak cold air advection pattern...expect highs only in the
upper 70s to around 80 today.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
dewpoints in the 50s for the remainder of the week will allow a
dry airmass to radiate nicely at night and exhibit a gradual
warming on highs each successive day after today. The low chance
of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday was removed at daybreak
but the flow will be turning back south on Friday if only weakly.
This will mostly be noted in the increased moisture in the Ohio
Valley for the weekend. If the dewpoints could rise to the middle 60s
as highs start topping 90...isolated showers/thunderstorms could
be the result. Did not feel that strongly in favor of them...but
the potential will be on the increase through the weekend into
next week. I did not however feel that that chance existed at
daybreak on Saturday and removed the chance for storms at this
time...in favor of the lower chances in the afternoon Saturday.
Nighttime lows in the 50s and low 60s Thursday and Friday will
increase to the middle 60s for the weekend as moisture increases over
the region. Highs will rise to the 80s on Thursday and Friday and
could approach 90 by the weekend.
&&
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
on Sunday and Monday...there is enough agreement of a building
ridge to limit probability of precipitation to 20...with a few pulse-type storms not out
of the question depending on how strongly capped we are. By
Tuesday...our heights begin lowering as upper ridging amplifies
over The Rockies. In addition...it seems low level moisture could
be on the increase. Therefore brought probability of precipitation back up to 30 for
everyone Tuesday afternoon.
For the entire Saturday-Tuesday period...the thermal profile does
not change appreciably. Highs will be 85-90...lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s...with fairly muggy dew points.
&&
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
area through the taf period. Light northeasterly flow and clear skies
could result in some patchy br at kluk late tonight...but given
the dry airmass will keep mention out of the taf.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
&&
Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...franks
near term...jgl
short term...franks
long term...Snyder
aviation...jgl
