Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
250 am EDT sun may 26 2013
..dry and mild with passing high clouds today & Monday...
..An extended period of dangerous rip currents expected along the
coast...
Short term...this morning...waves of high cirrus clouds were
spilling over the the forecast area around the periphery of an
upper level ridge positioned over the central Gulf of Mexico. The
passing high clouds combined with light southeast winds around 5 miles per hour or
less will bring mild min temperatures around sunrise in the low 50s well
inland to upper 60s coast. Could see some patchy fog inland but it
will be shallow and intermittent due to non-ideal radiational
cooling conditions.
Today...another dry and mild day with filtered sunlight as high
clouds increase over the area. Temperatures will be tempered somewhat by
the high clouds this afternoon...with highs ranging from the upper 70s
to near 80 coast to near 90 west of the Interstate 75 corridor.
Tonight...another cool night with mins falling into the middle/upper
50s inland to middle 60s coast under passing cirrus. Could see some
shallow patchy fog inland but significant development not
expected under passing high clouds.
Mon-Tue...high clouds persist over the area Monday then begin to thin
from the west late Tuesday as an upper level trough deepens over the
southeast Atlantic and shunts the southern stream jet and its moisture
plume south-southeast of the local area. Onshore flow will continue in the
lower levels with speeds near 15 miles per hour along the coast to 10-15 miles per hour
inland during the day. Mild temperatures and low humidities will
continue. High temperatures will range from near 80 coast to near 90 well
inland toward the Interstate 75 corridor. Min temperatures will be mild
Monday night due to high cirrus clouds with near 70 coast to low 60s
inland.
Long term...Wednesday through sun...an extended period of onshore flow
with an elevated rip current risk is expected with rain chances
gradually increasing from the south each day.
Low level east-southeast flow increases over the area between the persistent
high pressure ridge over the Atlantic and a tropical wave
approaching the Caribbean. Aloft an upper level trough positions
over the southeast Atlantic Seaboard. These forcing features combined
with increased moisture associated with the tropical wave will
progressively increase rain chances a bit each day through the
extended period. Advertised 20-30% chances of coastal showers
translating inland over night and early morning...then rain
chances increasing to 30-40% inland as diurnal instability and
forcing from the upper low over the region enhance convection with
isolated thunderstorms possible.
Due to onshore flow...high temperatures will be near to slightly below
climatology values with low/middle 80s coast to the upper 80s/near 90
farther inland toward the Interstate 75 corridor. Low temperatures will
be near to above climatology values with near 70 along the coast to middle
60s farther inland.
&&
Aviation...high cloudiness over the area with VFR conditions
continuing today.
&&
Marine...light east winds to continue today and tonight with weak
pressure gradient over the area. Winds and seas will gradually
increase the next few days as gradient starts to tighten between
ridge to the north and lowering pressure to the south. Headlines
possible by midweek.
Rip currents: moderate risk through Memorial Day due to easterly
swells.
&&
Fire weather...critically low rh's inland this afternoon. Winds
speeds and erc values will be too low for warning issuance.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 87 58 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
ssi 78 67 79 69 / 0 0 10 10
jax 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
sgj 77 65 80 68 / 0 0 0 0
gnv 87 56 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
ocf 87 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Enyedi/zibura
