AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
OUT AS DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...FILTERS IN ON LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
HUNG ON THE LONGEST TO THE MID 80S IN JONESBORO.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING THE MIDSOUTH IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MEMPHIS. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE RAIN FREE
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST NORTH
OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT HEADS
SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
TUE.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM AND KMKL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJBR AND
KTUP. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 66 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 68 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
