AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS...
&&
.AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE CIGS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN AFTER CLOUD DECK ERODES BY MID
MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AT BNA AND CSV WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS. DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CKV
WHICH COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
I FAILED TO ADDRESS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MY INITIAL AFD SO
HERE IS AN UPDATE. 850 TROUGH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE
WITH LOW DECK DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MID STATE AT 10Z. GOOD
NORTHERLY FEED INTO THE MID STATE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BACK EDGE
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT ON CLARKSVILLE AT 10Z. BACK EDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD AND FARTHER DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN BEHIND CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
AT CLARKSVILLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z WITH CLEARING AT NASHVILLE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AND CLEARING AT CROSSVILLE BY 15Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE US WILL KEEP MID STATE BASICALLY DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE THAT I
CAN FIND IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IT IS A LOW POP. BY
MID WEEK STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH 1025 MBAR RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRONG UPPER HIGH (590 DECAMETERS) OVER SOUTHEASTERN US.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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