Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
224 am PDT Sat may 18 2013
Synopsis...
Weak system moving through the Pacific northwest today will bring
isolated showers north of a Susanville-Gerlach line. Otherwise,
high pressure begins to build in for the remainder of the weekend
with mild and dry conditions. Another system is due to drop into
northern California/Nevada by the middle to end of next week
bringing an increase in winds, cooler conditions, and chances for
showers.
&&
Short term...
An area of high pressure is slowly expanding into the West Coast,
but will be held back by a shortwave digging through the Pacific
northwest today. This wave will bring isolated showers mainly
north of a Susanville-Gerlach line. While model soundings are
indicating decent instability and there is a jet maximum present,
thunderstorms are unlikely due to warming aloft helping to cap
deeper convection. As the wave passes, winds will turn from the
northwest to the north with gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour. This will bring
locally choppy conditions to area lakes, especially Pyramid Lake
which responds well to north winds. No lake wind advisories
planned at this time as wind speeds will remain below advisory
criteria.
High pressure will be in control for Sunday into Monday with mild
and dry conditions. Northeast to east flow will remain across the
area on Sunday, limiting the warming potential. Flow turns back
to the west Monday, and the increased mixing will allow
temperatures to climb to a few degrees above average. Df
Long term...Tuesday through Friday...
Models remain in good agreement with the overall trend to a cooler,
breezy pattern next week. However, they still differ on the depth of
the trough and thus how cold/rain chances Wednesday and beyond. Ec is
overall deeper this morning once again while the GFS is flatter
through Friday with the low in Washington. GFS has been a bit more
consistent overall as 12z ec kept the low further north. Overall,
continue a blend of the models/ensembles as the ensembles show a
large amount of spread with no preferred solution yet.
Tuesday still looks windy with the strong cold front set to move
through during the evening. It will be a dry cold front and models
are actually showing an impressive dry slot due to subsidence behind
the front. Winds could gusts to 40-45 miles per hour ahead of the front before
weakening behind. Wednesday looks less windy and cooler and still
dry as the dry slot will remain through the day.
For Thursday/Fri, ec brings low further south moving north of I-80
Thursday night supporting some precipitation chances while GFS remains dry.
Have kept the slight chance of showers north of Susanville/Gerlach both
days as a compromise and also kept temperatures slightly below average.
Regardless of solution, it will continue to be breezy in the
afternoons. With a decent thermal gradient remaining over Nevada.
Wallmann
&&
Aviation...
VFR conditions through Sunday. Breezy west-northwest winds this afternoon/evening
near 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts including terminals from 21-04z.
Winds to become more northerly Sunday as another weak cold front
passes through. Wallmann
&&
Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
&&
$$
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