Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
322 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
Kshv continues to show widely scattered to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity forming along a weak boundary in the
southern sections of the County Warning Area...mainly in deep East Texas. This
activity should dissipate with with sunset...but a few showers may
linger into the late evening. The other feature of concern on the
weather map is a mesoscale convective system in northwest Texas that continues to migrate
southeast. Although we are expecting this mesoscale convective system to lose energy
before it approaches East Texas...there still may be enough energy
and lift from an outflow boundary to produce some shower and
thunderstorm activity overnight. I am holding 20 central probability of precipitation in
overnight in parts of East Texas to respect this feature.
Models still show the upper ridge building across Texas in the
short term. The arklatex will be on the eastern fringe of the
upper ridge...so teaser 20 central probability of precipitation will be common in the
afternoon time period. However the overall forecast trend will be
turning dry...with temperatures will generally running near to slightly
above normal through the period.
Eleven
&&
Aviation...
Main concern for the 20/00z taf issuance will be flight hazards from
scattered thunderstorms which are expected to continue into the evening.
Best coverage for the convection will be south of a kjso to kaex
line. Otherwise...mostly VFR flight weather expected. However after
08z and continuing through 14z Thursday...portions of the area along
and south of Interstate 20 may experience MVFR to briefly IFR ceilings
and visibilities due to fog. Surface wind light and variable except in the
vicinity of convection. /14/
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 72 92 72 93 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
mlu 70 93 70 94 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
deq 68 90 69 93 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
txk 69 90 72 93 71 / 10 20 10 10 10
eld 67 92 69 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
tyr 73 93 73 93 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
ggg 71 93 72 93 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
lfk 73 94 72 93 71 / 30 20 10 20 10
&&
Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
11/14
