Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
240 am MST Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...hot and dry most of the week. Some moisture will seep
back into eastern areas late this week for a chance of mainly eastern
mountain thunderstorms by Friday into early next week.
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Discussion...clear and dry westerly westerly flow across Southeast
Arizona. Strong low pushing from the eastern Pacific into the
Pacific northwest and ridge axis just east of US with high center
anchored in Chihuahua. With the proximity of the ridge expect
temperatures to continue 6 to 9 degrees above climatology this week.
Surface dewpoints have cratered even more over the past 24 hours into
the single digits and teens. Precipitable water below 1/4 of an inch
with nearest deeper moisture still in southern Sonora...Chihuahua
and eastern New Mexico.
As the High Breaks down in north central Mexico and the ridge axis
shifts a little further east...expect stronger and more widespread
convection up the Sierra madres into Sonora and Chihuahua. Modest
fetch of moisture into southern New Mexico and West Texas with some
seeping into Southeast Arizona Thursday and Friday. Just enough for
mainly mountain buildups near the New Mexico and international
borders.
European model (ecmwf) amplifies the ridge downstream with secondary high center
reconsolidating in a favorable position to get more serious about
importing deeper moisture from the south next Monday or Tuesday.
Until then we'll stay hot as we struggle to restart even modest
mountain convection.
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Aviation...skc-few clouds above 20k feet above ground level through early Thursday
morning or 20/06z. Surface wind afternoon westerly/southwesterly 12-20 kts with
gusts to near 30 kts...strongest wind east and south of ktus.
Otherwise...surface wind less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
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Fire weather...hot and generally dry conditions will continue into
the upcoming weekend. Gusty winds can be expected during the
afternoon and early evening hours due to the strong solar heating.
Stronger winds are expected the next two afternoons. Thus...a red
flag warning remains in effect for the alpine district of zone 146
(far northern Greenlee county) from noon through 7 PM MST today with
a Fire Weather Watch in the same location Thursday. There may also
be a few mainly dry thunderstorms Friday into early next week for
mainly mountain areas east and south of Tucson.
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Twc watches/warnings/advisories...red flag warning from noon to
7 PM MST today for portions of azz146 (specifically the
alpine district of zone 146).
Fire Weather Watch from noon to 7 PM MST Thursday for portions
of azz146 (specifically the alpine district of zone 146).
&&
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