HS 100

marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1119 am EST sun 8 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

A high pres ridge extends SW to NE across the offshore water this afternoon. The last ascat pass and the latest sfc obs showed winds SW 10 to 20 kt from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod and SW to W 15 to 25 kt in the Gulf of Maine. From Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear winds variable 10 kt and S of Cape Fear E 10 to 15 kt. Seas across the waters were 3 to 6 ft with the highest over NE Gulf of Maine and far se nt2 waters.

A weak cold front will move se across the nt1 waters overnight then stall near Baltimore Canyon and lift back N as a warm front Mon. The next cold front will move se into the waters Tue night and Wed before stalling over the central and srn nt2 waters. The remnants of hurch Ida will move to just E of the NE FL coast by Thu morning then NE along the front Thu night and Fri.

The model trends have shifted from N to S over the past two day with the GFS going against the trend. In addition the trend has be slower. The NAM early and the ec and UKMET hold the remnants of Ida well S of the GFS. This has a significant affect on the offshore waters. A strong NE flow develops with the strongest winds from Baltimore Canyon S to 31n and counter to the Gulf Stream. The GFS take the low N across the North Carolina then off the mid Atlantic coast while intensifying it into a strong storm. For the fcst...for both nt1 and nt2 will use the ec/UKMET for day 3 to 5. This will end mention of gale for nt1 and be close to the HPC Med range charts. For nt2 will cape winds to 45 kt in the NE flow N of the front and any low traveling NE along the front. Wind may inc to strong with a strong counter flow to the Gulf Stream but prefer to be closer in time to the event before adding that much detail. If the ec is correct could easily see winds to 55 kt.

For seas through 60 hr the wave watch looks reasonable. Then through day 5 will have to adjust to fit conditions. The model is driven by the GFS winds so will be decreasing for nt1 and inc SW nt2.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...none. .Georges Bank...None. .S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...gale Wed into Thu...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale Wed into Thu...low to MDT confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale Wed into Fri...low to MDT confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale Wed into Fri...low to MDT confdc. .Cape Fear to 31n...Gale Wed into Fri...low to MDT confdc.

.Forecaster oszajca. Ocean forecast branch.