marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 404 am EDT Thu Jun 20 2013
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...and the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas.
...Gulf of Mexico... model preference: GFS/ECMWF consensus
Ts Barry nearing Mexican coastline attm per recent stlt estimates and continuity with a 0224z ssmis pass. A 0254z ascat pass missed the core of the circulation but depicted se flow 20-25 kt in the E Bay of Campeche and Ely winds 20-25 kt from N of the Yucatan wwd across N semicircle...which is feeding the nrn bands across the top of Barry. Barry expected to continue moving W and inland this morning with winds and seas gradually subsiding late this morning through this afternoon...and then more quickly tonight. High surf and minor runup to continue along the coast of Vera Cruz through late this morning...then rainfall threat will continue across the region through the weekend from Honduras W-NW to Vera Cruz as an elongated llvl convergence zone persists there. Alignment of wind field and small circulation not expected to produce much longer wave length swell energy propagating out of the SW Carib...with buoy 42055 showing peak energy centered on 7-8 sec attm.
Otherwise...weak ridge to drift N into nrn coastal waters by late Fri and begin to collapse as weak frontal zone sinks S into coastal plains and washes out next 48 hrs. Energetic tropical wave moving across NE Carib and adjancent Atlc attm to continue W-NW and across Florida Peninsula Sat and into far ern Gulf Sat evening through sun. Sufficient moisture and dynamics will remain with this wave as it enters the E Gulf to produce sct cnvtn shifting N and NW into FL Panhandle Sun night and early Mon.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic... model preference: GFS/ECMWF consensus
Fresh to strong trades persist across most of basin this morning with recent scat passes indicating only 25 kt peak winds 02-04z across S central portions...where seas are likely 8-11 ft. NE Carib tropical wave continues to interact with elongated upper vortex across Atlc along 68-70w...with cnvtn weakening past 6 hrs across se quad of upper low as wave is being stretched NW to se and thus weakening llvl convergence. A 0640z cryosat pass showed seas 7-8 ft across Puerto Rico coastal waters on both sides of island along about 66w...extending to W of buoy 41043. An 0206z ascat-b pass suggested surface troughing across and just W of leewards behind h7 wave axis...where a secondary vort center is trailing behind wave. Global models hand on to this feature through 72 hours. Wave to continue W-NW next 3 days and move across the Greater Antilles and adjacent Atlc...with most weather expected N of 17n. Winds and seas will begin to abate across tropical N Atlc and E Carib today behind wave...and gradually shift W to near 70w by Sat...before next tropical wave approaches tropical N Atlc waters early sun.
...SW N Atlantic W of 55w including the Bahamas... gmodel preference: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET consensus
Lower level reflection of central Atlc TUTT low weakening Atlc ridge to some degree along 50w...with narrow ridging extending N of this and SW to central Florida. Anticyclonic flow to prevail across the area through Fri morning before ridge lifts N and allows E to se flow to dominate S of 31n. NE Carib tropical wave will continue to shift W-NW...and reach Windward Passage and se Bahamas by 00z this evening...central Cuba and NW Bahamas around 00z Sat...and along W coast of Florida around 00z sun. Global models in reasonable agreement on this feature...showing best moisture convergence and mid level dynamics remains along N and NE portions of wave axis...with a secondary llvl vort and possible sfc reflection trailing to the se. This will likely shift strongest cnvtn across NW Bahamas Sat and through central FL N of Palm Beach Sat evening and night...with secondary vort shifting NW behind this and into far NW waters and FL coastal waters. Along this secondary vort is likely where squalls will be more prevalent than deep cnvtn associated with wave. Strong E to se trades 20-25 kt will occur along and just behind wave S of 22.5n as it treks through area today through Sat morning...with seas building 7-9 ft.
$$ .Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... Gmz011...none. Gmz013...none. Gmz015...none. Gmz017...none. Gmz019...none. Gmz021...none. Gmz023...Tropical Storm Warning early today into Mon night. Gmz025...none.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... amz011...none. Amz013...none. Amz015...none. Amz017...none. Amz019...none. Amz021...none. Amz023...none. Amz025...none. Amz027...none. Amz029...none. Amz031...none. Amz033...none. Amz035...none. Amz037...none. Amz039...none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... Amz111...none. Amz113...none. Amz115...none. Amz117...none. Amz119...none. Amz121...none. Amz123...none. Amz125...none. Amz127...none.
*For detailed zone descriptions please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information please visit: http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine
$$ .Forecaster stripling. National Hurricane Center.
There are no current maps for this region.
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NOT FOR NAVIGATION. DO NOT RELY ON THIS DATA FOR DECISIONS THAT CAN RESULT IN HARM TO ANYONE OR ANYTHING.