HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 649 am PST sun 8 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Update:

06z GFS has a rdg extndg over The Wash ofshr wtrs on Wed...while the 06z gefs mean/00z Gem/00z UKMET solns hv a low movg across these wtrs on Wed. 06z GFS dvlps a low over the calif cntrl CST Thu mrng...while the other Med rng mdls hv rdg bldg over this area.

00z GFS looks reasonable over the ofshr areas thru the fcst prd...and is in better agreemnt with the other Med rng mdls than the 06z GFS...so will be using the 00z GFS for the ofshr wtrs fcsts attm.

Seas...00z wavewatch iii mdl sea hts look reasonable thru the fcst prd...and will be closely followed. Large NW swell is expctd to affect the ofshr wtrs today...then again Wed into Thu.

Prev discussion:

Westerly flow is expected to continue across the pz5 waters tonight...then become more southwesterly by sun. Still expect gales across the Washington and Oregon waters Sun night into Mon as a cold front moves across the area. The NAM is showing a stronger system than the GFS...but attm will lean more towards the GFS solution.

Farther S...high pres W of the pz6 waters is combining with a thermal trof along the srn California coast to produce winds up to 30 kt across portions of the central and srn California offshore waters. Conditions will weaken by Mon...then strengthen again by Wed and Thu as a cold front drops S into the srn California waters. Minimal gales are possible by Thu...but attm will hold the winds at 30 kt.

The wavewatch model looks reasonable and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period. Large swell will continue to affect the waters tonight and sun.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tonight and Mon...MDT to high confdc. Gale Wed...low cnfdc. .Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale tonight and Mon...MDT to high confdc. Gale Wed...low cnfdc.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster Scovil/nolt. Ocean forecast branch.