Invest 93E likely to form into a tropical cyclone; Atlantic showing signs of life?
Invest 93E getting better organized and likely to become Calvin over the next few days
A rather compact, yet decently organized, area of low pressure about 300 miles SSE of Acapulco (Invest 93E) has been gradually getting better organized over the past couple of days. As of the 2:00 pm National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, Invest 93E was given a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours, and I do expect that Calvin will form from this area over the next few days. Satellite images reveal an organizing area of disturbed weather that appears poised for development, but does not yet have a well-defined area of low pressure and sufficient convective organization to warrant classification. However, environmental conditions are favorable for further development and most of the intensity models do show would-be Calvin reaching at least tropical storm intensity. The good news with this system is that all of the forecast models take it well offshore of the Mexican coast and out to sea. After enduring impacts from former storms Adrian, and more directly Beatriz earlier in the season, the Mexican coast can finally relax with this one, as whatever forms from Invest 93E is not a threat to land.
Figure 1. The current satellite image of an organizing Invest 93E.
Atlantic remains quiet
After a brief, but strong tropical storm (Arlene) made landfall last week very near Tampico, Mexico, the Atlantic has not had anymore activity and still remains quiet today and none of the global models indicate any significant development over the next few days. However, there are a few areas worth watching. A large area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, Cuba, South Florida, and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low interacting with a tropical wave. This area will be moving slowly north and does not appear likely to be much of a threat for development. This is the same disturbance that was trying to develop an area of low pressure yesterday near Cat Island in the Bahamas but failed to do so because of unfavorable conditions. The National Hurricane Center gives this a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I'd give this area a near 0% chance for development. Another tropical wave near 40W and south of 10N may need to be watched for trouble down the road in the Caribbean. Conditions may be favorable if it can avoid too much land interaction with the South American coast. The National Hurricane Center has not mentioned this area in their Tropical Weather Outlook, and it is just simply something to keep an eye on right now.
I'll try to have another entry tomorrow.