Blizzard conditions Feb. 9-10...

By: Zachary Labe , 20:21 GMT le 03 février 2010

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Most computer guidance is unanimous in a strengthening a double barrel low pressure setup redeveloping on the east coast. Climatology and past analogs support this, featuring a widespread precipitation event for the entire eastern seaboard. Due to animous blocking this will allow the storm system to affect southern areas more so than Northern New England.

Thoughts on February 5-7 Snowstorm...
A anomalous southerly flow is allowing cirrus clouds to stream overhead as 'the calm before the storm' infects the entire Middle Atlantic region. As this flow continues to increase, national water vapor loop is indicating over +4SD moisture anomalies streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of a low pressure developing in Louisiana. As the infrared and water vapor loops take on the classic comma head approach, cloud tops continue to cool towards Texas and Louisiana noting the actual intensity of this storm system. As the low deepens below 1004mb, plumes of moisture will stream up the eastern seaboard with PWATs (precipitate waters) rising to near 1.2in across the southern Middle Atlantic. As the low pressure attempts to move northeastward, a low undergoing bombogenesis in the northern Atlantic is slow pulling away. The simple physics element of uniform polars repelling will be the example set forth by the unusual blocking scenario to the north where the low is already progged to be near 944mb. The exact displacement of this low is critical to the northern extent of the SLP (surface low pressure) track. Also to note is the correlating negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) phase below -1 along with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) and negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) ridge. These all indicative of cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard. Located in southern Canada is also a polar vortex, which will slowly be retrograding northeastward, but will pose critical again to the northern progression of this storm system.

By Friday morning weak dbz (virga) will likely be across southern Virginia and West Virginia as mid levels around 10000ft are indicative of RH (relative humidity) less than 40% by GFS bufkit prognostics. But shortly thereafter moisture will stream into the region with the stratiform snowshield marching slowly to the north in contrast with a weakening and departing high over northern Pennsylvania. As the SLP tracks into South Carolina Friday mid morning precipitation will be into Washington DC and southern Maryland. A weak easterly flow at the surface will allow for thermals to favor rain for those south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, but increasing inversion heights will allow cold air damming to favor severe freezing rain in the foothills of the Appalachians. By Friday late morning things begin to get interesting as the 850hPa low tracks into southern North Carolina on a east-northeast trajectory. Using the typical rule of thumb of the heavy snow axis about 100+mi north of the 850hPa low track, heavy snow will likely be across northern Virginia into Maryland as a strong convergence zone develops across the region. Increasing isentropic lifts heights will favor precipitation rates over .1/hr for standard QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast). With a favorable low level jet near 60knots around 850-925mb aloft, strong vertical lift will favor frontogenesis heights increasing over Maryland and northern Virginia by early afternoon with snowfall totals already around 2-4in for parts of northern Virginia and into West Virginia. As the 700hPa low tracks through southern Kentucky, the stratiform precipitation shield will finally lift northward above the Pennsylvania I-76 turnpike by early afternoon with precipitation in the form of snow. As for temperatures during most of this event, use a simple rule of thumb... Take your wetbulb/dewpoint temperature at the onset of falling precipitation and add on 3-4F. That then will likely be the temperature for the most part during the entire system especially considering WAA (warm air advection) is confined to southern Virginia on southward.

By Friday evening, the northern extent of the precipitation shield will likely be between I-76 and I-80 with virga to the north. A strong convergence axis in northern Maine with increasing momentum transfer of air particles will favor cold air diving into the northern edge of the storm with favorable snow growth zones highlighted as followed. High resolution models are indicative of increasing dendritic growth along the Pennsylvania turnpike south to northern Maryland with H85s temperatures near (-5)-(-8)C during a majority of the event. With excellent snow growth levels around 10000ft, ratios in this region will be in the realm of 12:1 or 15:1 making for a fluffy snowfall once again. Take for instance KMDT (Middletown/Harrisburg, PA) QPF totals from December 19 at .66in, yet 8.8in of snow was officially measured. Keep in mind ratios are defined by temperatures aloft, and not boundary layer (2m-10m) temperatures. Another mesoscale feature will likely occur from Washington DC northward into northern Maryland and perhaps southern Pennsylvania with the formation of coastal/surface front which will serve as an axis for snowfall rates near 2-3in/hr. Finally the formation of a CIS/CCB band is likely towards central and northern Maryland also as a potential gravity wave forms in central Virginia along the northern right front quadrant north of the warm front as rising air parcels continue to rise and sink favoring anomalous precipitation rates. These mesoscale features will serve in isolated higher amounts of snowfall in the northern Middle Atlantic during the height of the event Friday night.

As pressure falls along the SLP track near the Virginia/North Carolina border increase to -3mb/hr, cyclogenesis will favor in a deformation axis towards Maryland and Virginia in particular adding an additional .5in of QPF that northern areas will not see in the precipitation shield. This axis will also be accompanied by strong vertical lift courtesy of the cold air covergence layer favoring mixing aloft allowing a transfer of winds to the surface with gusts over 35-40mph along the coast with blizzard thesholds being met potentially as far west as Annapolis.

As the low pulls away during the later half of Saturday, precipitation will quickly end from west to east leaving a sigificant snowfall in its wake especially over Maryland and northern Virginia into northern Delaware. The northern edge of this precipitation shield is highly uncertain with guidance recently trending to the south courtesy of anomalous blocking, so at this point those from the Pennsylvania turnpike and on northward should be playing on the conservative route. There will likely be a sharp cutoff between the horizontal lines of Indiana, Pennsylvania-Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-Allentown, Pennsylvania and Butler, Pennsylvania-Williamsport, Pennsylvania-Scranton, Pennsylvania. This exact location is yet to be determined, but guidance suggests this may even sink south especially looking at foreign models. In any case elevation and orographic lift along with higher snow ratios may favor heavy snow along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike. The bullseye appears to be in northern Maryland from southern to central Hartford County and a country east and west of that. Isolated snow totals may be near 30-32in in this region. See more information below on snow totals. Also for those in southern Pennsylvania, watch for the slim possibility of a mesoscale band forming along the cold conveyor belt of the northern end of the precipitation shield. This sometimes is a common factor in terms of strong blocking with limited northern extent of QPF. This was noted recently from the past light to moderate snowfall that 'overperformed.' At this point the highest "bust" potential so to speak exists from Altoona to Harrisburg to Allentown to New York City. There will be sharp line between 12in and 1-2in. In any case this will be a high impact event, but fortunately the low will not be cutoff from the jet allowing for a general quick motion of the SLP out into the Atlantic with the duration of the storm only around 18hrs or so for most locations as the storm is out of here for many areas especially in Pennsylvania north of the deformation by noon. Stay tune for any updates and/or changes during the day Friday. Have a great day!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...

Farmville, Virginia - Ashland, Virginia - Warsaw, Virginia - Salisbury, Maryland - Ocean View, Delaware

*Note this line is a general estimation for precipitation type (rain vs. snow) during the height of the precipitation. As the deformation axis departs, this line will likely drop southward. Also during any intense convection correlated with a gravity wave development may favor brief periods of sleet especially towards La Plata, Maryland and the southern suburbs of Washington DC. Also south towards the Appalachians in North Carolina a major freezing rain/ice storm is likely to occur with QPF amounts in excess of .5in of pure freezing rain. North of this line by about 20mi will definitely have all snow.

Storm Reports...
COMING WHEN PRECIPITATION COMMENCES!!!

Storm Impacts...
1. Impressive mesoscale banding in northern quadrant favoring isolated snow totals up to 30in in northern Maryland.
2. High winds near 40-60knots aloft will allow for mixing to filter gusts over 35mph especially within 50mi of the coast.
3. High impact on Friday evening commute with precipitation lasting through Saturday afternoon.
4. Heavy snow (+4in) will fall from western Virginia northward into southern New York state and southern Connecticut.
5. Sharp northern QPF gradient favoring a line horizontally across Pennsylvania between Mansfield, Pennsylvania and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Snow Map...

*Note the region at the 5-9in/12in line will more likely be in the range for 8-14in. There is a high bust potential in this event considering the sharp northern cutoff, so any swing of 25mi for the surface low track will change forecasts dramatically.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow, 18-26in isolated higher amounts
Baltimore, MD- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolate higher amounts
Salisbury, MD- Sleet/freezing rain/snow, 3-7in
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolated higher amounts
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow, 12-18in
Dover, DE- Heavy snow/sleet/freezing rain, 5-12in
Trenton, NJ- Heavy snow, 6-10in
New York City, NY- Moderate snow at times, 2-5in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Binghamton, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Albany, NY- Cloudy with flurries
Hartford, CT- Cloudy with light snow, C-1in
Concord, NH- Cloudy
Providence, RI- Cloudy
Worcester, MA- Cloudy
Boston, MA- Cloudy
Nantucket, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Hyannis, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Portland, ME- Mostly cloudy
Bangor, ME- Partly cloudy
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Computer model mayhem can best be describing this entire scenario with striking differences for the northern edge of the QPF shield. The GFS/ECMWF combo seems to have the best consistency, but the NAM/ETA/MM5 seem a good deal further south highlighting strong confluence to the north. For now I took a general 1.0in QPF line from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Reading with 2.0in QPF along the Mason-Dixon line. This fits well with local SREFs except for a bit of tweaking. The biggest concern is the NAM and GGEM runs, but for now the NAM seems to have have some initiating issues illustrating 5 vortices of energy at the height of the storm indicative of QPF problems. It also has a east-southeast trajectory at one point which is suspicious to say the least. The GFS seems to have a better hold on the system, but looking back at similarities in the December 19th event, the GFS did have the precipitation shield well too far northwest with the NAM scoring on the chalkboard so this arises some concern. In any case high resolution models for the 0z cycle will be interesting, but probably siding more towards the NAM. I also took my .1in line about as far north as KUNV with little QPF towards IPT. In any case this event is marginal in terms of confidency so stay tuned to the latest.

After the storm...
Interesting potential lies ahead in the medium and long range as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to be well below normal negative values diving once again into off the charts territory. With a similar negative AO oriention I expect a constant feed of cold Canadian air into the northern half of the United States. With above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic blocking will continue to favor favorable conditions for east coast cyclogenesis and below normal temperatures. The first threat appears quickly on the horizon for Monday-Tuesday with ECMWF taking a miller B scenario with 6-10in amounts across the entire northeast on the 12z 2/4/10 run. The GFS takes a less amplified approach with light amounts scraping New England perhaps with some higher totals. In any case wavelengths have also favored this time period for an east coast storm threat. I have not really focused, as expected, on this scenario, but it is the next threat posed towards the east coast. Also towards Sunday-Tuesday upslope from weak shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes will favor 1-4in of light snow over the snow belts of northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands into Garret County, Maryland. Cold air advection will also be widespread across the northern Middle Atlantic with highs Sunday-Tuesday ranging 7-14F below normal into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits courtesy of 850mb temperatures around -10C or below and 1000-500mb thicknesses below 530dm. After the Monday-Tuesday threat, wavelengths favor a day 8 threat with foreign guidance such as the JMA posing a Miller A winter storm threat with a low pressure ejecting out of the gulf of Mexico. In any case the next two weeks are likely to feature well below normal temperatures with several threats of snow from coastals to clippers. On a side note Lake Erie surface ice has definitely increased especially towards the shallow portions of the lake near Cleveland so the heavy lake effect snow is likely done for the season.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

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"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 20.75in
Monthly Total- 43.25in
Seasonal Total- 61.35in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 43.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 11.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in

Weather wizard (Patriot News)Link.

Sure has been a long cold spell" is a lackluster comment you'd hear at a social gathering when a person can't think of anything else to say.

Not so with Zachary Labe. The 17-year-old junior at Central Dauphin High School is passionate about weather. So passionate that he's one of just 28 high school students who've been accepted for membership in the American Meteorological Society, the association for radio and television forecasters.

If that isn't passionate enough, there are the weather instruments in Labe's bedroom. They make noise. Day and night. One goes off if the temperature makes an abrupt change, another when a storm begins, and there are more.

Even if it's 2 a.m. and snow or rain snow begins, the alarm wakes Labe. In seconds he's out of bed, running through the upstairs hall yelling, "There's a storm!" And out he goes in the middle of it. In a rainstorm, he takes a lightning detector.

Among Labe's large collection of weather equipment is a top-of-the-line weather station that the federal government uses, but he doesn't use it. "It's not very accurate," he said.

After taking a National Weather Service class, Labe could get an account from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which gives him information to interpret for a weather forecast. And Labe is usually right on. In fact, his prediction is accurate more often than professional forecasters,' he said.

Take the night of Jan. 22-23. Several meteorologists said we'd have rainstorms, perhaps thunder. Labe's prediction said nothing about precipitation. Not a drop fell.

"It's impossible to be perfect in predicting," Labe said. "But you can be less imperfect than others."

Forecasts can't be perfect because forecasters make interpretations. NOAA's "super computers" take information such as wind velocity and humidity and use mathematical equations to transfer the results onto maps and graphs.

Labe interprets NOAA's information, figures out a forecast, then color codes several of NOAA's blank maps of the U.S. to indicate information including temperatures, the jet stream swish and humidity.

In 2007, at age 14, Labe started forecasting with about 10,000 other amateur meteorologists on the Web site Weather Underground -- www.wunderground.com -- under the name "Blizzard92," which he used because he was young and the Internet can be a dangerous place.

The folks at the California-based site noticed Blizzard92's accuracy and in 2009 sent Labe an e-mail asking if he'd be one of nine featured forecaster bloggers in the country, taking on Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. Of course, he would.

As a featured blogger, Blizzard92 had to upload a photograph of himself. This took the cat that was his age right out of the bag. Not only were the Weather Underground people amazed that he was 17 and had expert knowledge, Labe received thousands of comments on the site.

And the other eight people selected? They all have degrees in meteorology.

Labe's interest in weather ignited long before he was 12. He often heard his grandparents and uncle discussing the weather. They were farmers, and weather was vital to their livelihood.

Labe didn't say a whole lot, but he started accumulating books on meteorology and weather history. He stayed up nights watching the skies during storms, recorded information in a weather journal and asked for a weather station. His parents bought him an inexpensive one to start. It, of course, led to more equipment.

Labe belongs to Skywarn Storm Spotter for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When there's a storm and tree branches fall or other damage happens, he reports it to NOAA.

Among his other memberships are the Mount Washington Weather Observation Service in New Hampshire and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, to which he sends precipitation amounts every 24 hours.


Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...

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Palmyra, she graduated in May 2007. So in the four year periopd she was there, my wife and I must have been there at least a dozen times. By me here the Baro. is 30.31", too high! it is starting to fall abit, got to get the pressures lower so the storm can come further north.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
267. P451
Looks like models coming northward, leaving lingering precip on the west side, and QPFs are higher.

Looking very healthy for us now.
Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
and I'm also a big fan of the "mention of tension" this place is turning into. if you catch my drift. ha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting buggyinitscripts:
Aaah! You bad bad models I think you need a time out. Share the wealth, don't be giving bonuses to the already rich and famous. Glorious igloo skyscrapers the cement that holes them together is heavysnot.


Barack? Is that you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
264. zotty
Quoting 717WeatherLover:
Ohhh, it's all so exciting! Will it-won't it, little-lots, when start-when stop......my husband thinks I'm a freak for getting so excited over weather! I don't think he's complaining about my outlet for all this anticipatory energy though. LOL I've read studies about the effects of approaching lows on headaches but wonder if there are any correlating libedo to weather? So glad I have all you weather junkies for a support group!


what on earth? you and MdGirl... Hey Heavy- that igloo is going to get crowded.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Aaah! You bad bad models I think you need a time out. Share the wealth, don't be giving bonuses to the already rich and famous. Glorious igloo skyscrapers the cement that holes them together is heavysnot.
Bug, this things gonna continue to shift like a sharks tail through water. It will even shift as the event is long underway, and won't stop until the very last flake has fallen where the shoreline meets the sea...

The insanity of it is that there will be such a sharp cuttoff.
Member Since: 17 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Your daughter went to Dickinson? How long ago? I'm asking this because I MAY owe you an apology for driving down High Street and College Street on a daily basis (especially in spring and summer) with the windows down payin' all the ladies my compliments. HAHAHAHAHAHA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't give up Silverships, I still think you guys will receive at least 8-12", you are far enough south. You are in Carlisyle (SP) right.? My duaughter went to Dickinson so we were there many times to visit.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
I guess central PA will have to wait for snow until next time . . . again.


What are you talking about?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Let's be honest here, the models are having no consistency. This waffling all over the place is nuts. It indicates that they can't figure it out, they just don't know... Expect more waffling.


Exactly what I said to my dad this morning when he asked me why the keep changing the forecast. Also I said it is now-casting. Ed Hanna has said now-casting a lot.
MarylandGirl - Yea!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's be honest here, the models are having no consistency. This waffling all over the place is nuts. It indicates that they can't figure it out, they just don't know... Expect more waffling.
Member Since: 17 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Ohhh, it's all so exciting! Will it-won't it, little-lots, when start-when stop......my husband thinks I'm a freak for getting so excited over weather! I don't think he's complaining about my outlet for all this anticipatory energy though. LOL I've read studies about the effects of approaching lows on headaches but wonder if there are any correlating libedo to weather? So glad I have all you weather junkies for a support group!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess central PA will have to wait for snow until next time . . . again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winter Storm Warning just issued for us. Ice pellet forcast has been removed and now they are saying 16-24" of heavy snow! That is a huge change from earlier! What is happening? I'll take the snow but it was a surprise change in forcast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a yellow Labrador Retriever who's name is Bubbles who loves the snow but hates getting wet in the rain or swimming.

And now since I posted that off topic remark Verizon Online will cancel my service. "Sarcastic quotes"
Im going nuts with these model runs, starting tomorrow I'll just be "old school" and watch the radar and satellite presentations and movement to see where the precip. is going.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7873
Torrents of snow, come on! Phase and bomb close to the Jersey shore. Aaaah! Grr Argh.
249. zotty
PP, P451- do we want phasing to occur in this system, or no? (I know heavy does) i guess there is some doubt about whether even that will happen now. just wondering...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
buggyinitscripts

I like bugs and the other part is computer lingo. Actually both have to do with programming.

Anyway bring on the snow. These models are a pain in our bottoms.

Hvysnow's igloo should be put in a museum after this historic winter.
Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...

"Subject to Change"

You might as well put a goose egg total for Bangor, ME. My contribution toward 2000 comments...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
246. zotty
Quoting HeavySnow:


HeavySnot huh?

zotty is snotty. There I said it. hahaha
But you are green with envy, kinda like a booger.

BULLSEYEVILLE, VA here.
3 feet still on my table.

Palmyra, get in your car now and head south. I'll meet you at the new igloo construction site.


what, you nose doesn't run when outside in 25 degree weather when building an igloo? maybe I'll send a few of John Gotti's goons down to help you build it...

loved the poem yesterday- toddy potty snotty- but computer at home needs to be wiped so i struggled getting on. just as well, with you basking in your new found snow magnetism, while the rest of us are scrambling for a few token flakes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HeavySnow:


Every time I hear them say heavy snow on tv I whip around thinking they're talking about me. ha

I couldn't be the only igloo maker out of all of the snowlovers out there.


You are the only one I have heard of..LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breald:


There was a story a few weeks ago on my local news channel about a guy who built an igloo in his backyard. I thought it was you but realized he was located out west and not on the east coast.


Every time I hear them say heavy snow on tv I whip around thinking they're talking about me. ha

I couldn't be the only igloo maker out of all of the snowlovers out there.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
Dust of Snow

by Robert Frost (1923)

The way a crow
Shook down on me
The dust of snow
From a hemlock tree

Has given my heart
A change of mood
And saved some part
Of a day I had rued.
Quoting HeavySnow:


HeavySnot huh?

zotty is snotty. There I said it. hahaha
But you are green with envy, kinda like a booger.

BULLSEYEVILLE, VA here.
3 feet still on my table.

Palmyra, get in your car now and head south. I'll meet you at the new igloo construction site.


There was a story a few weeks ago on my local news channel about a guy who built an igloo in his backyard. I thought it was you but realized he was located out west and not on the east coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zotty:
Wow, WU has me back down to a 50% POPS Fri night and Sat. but that is similar to 12/19 as well. regardless, it seems everyone is going through the models ups and downs... except HeavySnot. Freakin' guy is in the bullseye in every model. I look forward to the architectural sketches of your proposed McIgloo. Did you get any permits yet?


HeavySnot huh?

zotty is snotty. There I said it. hahaha
But you are green with envy, kinda like a booger.

BULLSEYEVILLE, VA here.
3 feet still on my table.

Palmyra, get in your car now and head south. I'll meet you at the new igloo construction site.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
240. zotty
oh- that was from 6am...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. zotty
NYC Metro forecast from Upton Sinclair- boo

HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE ON FRI WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...JUST TIMING AND STRENGTH REMAIN IN QUESTION.
INTERESTINGLY...MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL ENERGY
SEPARATE WITH ITS SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF STATES TONIGHT
AND LIFTING TO A POINT NEAR CAPE HATTERAS FRI NIGHT..WHILE A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW FORMS NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FROM
THERE...THE COASTAL LOW IS STEERED TO THE ENE DUE TO A BLOCKING
CUTOFF LOW OVER SERN CANADA. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD GRAZING NYC...LI AND PORTIONS OF NE NJ. THERE IS SUCH A
FINE LINE IN THE PRECIP SHIELD...THAT IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT DON`T SEE ANYTHING AT ALL.

NOT WILLING TO BUY COMPLETELY INTO THAT JUST YET...SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN NYC/LI/PARTS OF
NE NJ WITH AN AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH...FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
THIS WOULD BE MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS. IF THE TRACK DOES SHIFT TO
THE NORTH...THEN HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
P451,

Thank you for the pretty maps.

I don't know this storm just feels different than the Dec 19 one which was kind sucky for my area. But after 3 or so years without much snow I'll take anything I can get.
Looks like NYC and L.I. will escape the worst of the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
236. P451
Quoting shipweather:
p451, do you have concerns about this? or just saying?


I think there is a chance it gets ejected ENE earlier than we want it to as all the 500mb models have a pretty solid WNW flow over NJ which would force an earlier ENE trend of the storm.

However I still think the models are over-doing that flow, have it too steep WNW to ESE, and that is due to the over-predicted strength of the blocking high 36-42 hours out.

Models did trend a bit back north at 06Z and if we see that trend continue at 12Z then maybe we do have our "northward correction".

In my honest opinion I don't think we can put much trust into the model runs until tomorrow - or until we see consistent trends run to run.

Every other run flip flops. 18z north, 00z south, 6z north, etc.. if 12z is south then I'd really discount the solutions at this time. If 12z is north again then maybe we have something to go on.

Models really do have a desire to keep that solid 500mb flow intact however.

Several models: 42 hours out. When the storm exits NC, if that flow exists, then yes, the cutoff for plowable (4-6") snow will probably be around I-78 in NJ. If the models trend northward after forecasting the blocking flow to be weaker than they think now then you're talking NYC in the 4-6"+ range.


HRW-NMM (very less generous)





ECMWF (less generous)



NAM (average generosity)



GEFS (more generous)



SREF (more generous)




Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting zyphor:
OMG, I just heard a co-worker ask another co-worker if the upcoming storm is a nor'easter. He said no, it's an El Nino.

Going to put my headphones on now. La La La....


LOL blame El Nino
El Nino is one contributing factor, among other things, not the cause.


Ed Hanna used to be a Wundergrounder. I don't think he was really a member of this blog, but I do remember he was a regular in Dr. Master's blog and then for a short time, Sulli's blog (NE Weather). I actually still have quite a few e-mails from him sitting around my inbox somewhere.

Ed Hanna was a very cool guy when I had to interview him over the phone for of all things a Public Speaking class when I went to NCC about 5 (correction 7) years ago.
OMG, I just heard a co-worker ask another co-worker if the upcoming storm is a nor'easter. He said no, it's an El Nino.

Going to put my headphones on now. La La La....
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"Local mets use Accuweather WFMZ say 6-8 inches but the main Accuweather website says around 6-10 inches for my area. My dad calls Ed Hanna, Ed Hoona Hanna."

Ed Hanna used to be a Wundergrounder. I don't think he was really a member of this blog, but I do remember he was a regular in Dr. Master's blog and then for a short time, Sulli's blog (NE Weather). I actually still have quite a few e-mails from him sitting around my inbox somewhere.
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231. zotty
Wow, WU has me back down to a 50% POPS Fri night and Sat. but that is similar to 12/19 as well. regardless, it seems everyone is going through the models ups and downs... except HeavySnot. Freakin' guy is in the bullseye in every model. I look forward to the architectural sketches of your proposed McIgloo. Did you get any permits yet?
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230. P451
The NCEP ensembles have the low reaching Cape Hatteras heading NE then immediately bending ENE out to sea from there. I think that is not correct.

The SREF ensembles have the low reaching Cape Hatteras and continuing NE from there then bending ENE off of the Delmarva.

NCEP means 6" of snow for me.
SREF means 12"+ of snow for me.

So who do you trust?

How about neither for now?

Know what I mean....but I'd lean towards SREF because they lean more towards everything we've seen all year with these storms and the NCEP shows the overdone SE bias we've seen models TRY to force storms towards.

(get ready for spaghetti)

NCEP:



SREF:



See the difference? If the NCEP were correct we'd all be freezing cold today. Anyone think that's happening? Didn't think so.

Also I even think these runs are a bit too South and East. Still over-doing that blocking high.

Nature is going to do what it wants to do so we can pour over these models all we want but I think, like every other storm we've all had, the models trended too far south and east only to recorrect at the last moment because the blocking high they were all over-doing was now moving out of the picture as the storm approached.

Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
229. zotty
Quoting shipweather:
I was hoping to wake up and see north trends and WSW!!! And I got it!

AND today is my birthday!! Thanks mothernature please keep it up.

My track team is leave for NYC at 4pm. We're supposed to be heading home around 3 SAT from NYC, the one coach doesn't believe it's going to snow that much.....haha. Oh boy, we may not be coming home.


Ship Ship- Hooray! Ship Ship Hooray!

Happy Birthday- and if you get stuck in NYC and are of age (or have ID that says you are)- sneak out to Continental- they have a great happy hour
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This morning's report from Aberdeen Proving Ground Maryland:

Issued At 2/4/2010 - DISCUSSION AND FORECAST: Issued on 4 Feb 2010 at 0802 by G. Luft

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING!

Enjoy today's "calm" as a major winter storm is still on track to wallop APG and the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow into Sat. Cold High pressure, now centered over western OH, slides across our region today to bring fair weather. Clouds increase tonight as the storm, now getting organized over S TX, strengthens rapidly on Fri. while tracking to the VA Capes by Sat. morning. Copious moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is already being drawn into it over the Gulf coast, with Atlantic moisture joining in late Fri. into Sat. as the storm tracks to the NC coast. Discussion write-ups by the National Weather Service suggest this storm looks rather similar to the Feb '83 storm that brought 22" to our region with "thundersnows" during the height of the storm (I remember it well!). The current guidance is suggesting we may receive 1.5 to 2 feet of snow and has been showing at least 1.5 feet the past few runs. We'll review the next set of information early this afternoon and provide an update later today, so stay tuned!

TODAY (THURSDAY): Mostly sunny this morning, increasing high clouds late this afternoon, high 39°F, wind NW at 8G14 MPH by mid-morning decreases to 4 MPH by evening. Increasing high clouds this evening lower and thicken after midnight, low 28°F, light and variable winds overnight.

TOMORROW (FRISDAY): Cloudy with light snow developing around midday, accumulating 1" to 3" by evening, high 32°F, light winds in the morning become ENE at 7G12 MPH by evening. Snow, heavy at times overnight, could be embedded "thundersnow" towards dawn Sat., turning windy with blowing and drifting snow, low 26°F, wind becomes NE at 15G23 MPH by late evening, then shifts to NNE at 20G30 MPH late at night, 8" to 10" additional accumulation likely.

REMARKS: A temperature inversion around 3200' holds most of today with NW wind resulting in noise propagation to the S and E this afternoon
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Long time lurker here around the east Allentown very close to Bethlehem, PA area. Wanting to contribute to 2000 posts. I love this blog. I've been interested in the weather since I saw my first hailstorm when I was 5 or 6 (1985 or 1986).

FRIDAY NIGHT
SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY
SNOW LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

Okay whatever WUG.

Local mets use Accuweather WFMZ say 4-8 inches but the main Accuweather website says around 6-10 inches for my area. My dad calls Ed Hanna, Ed Hoona Hanna.
226. P451
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
I don't know, breald... I think New England as a whole is out of this one as the storm is just going too far south for you guys to get much more than passing showers. Your concerns may be more wind and coastal flooding if this thing really bombs it over the water.



Such a sharp QPF cutoff means 50 miles is the difference between 2 inches and 10.

So those of us on the northern fringes of the system should watch these model fluctuations most intently. One run has you dry the next has you 6". And that's just 6 hour model run differences.

So, well, today is going to be a bad day to try to forecast this storm.

Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
p451, do you have concerns about this? or just saying?
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
224. P451
Oh, one more tidbit, if this storm does pass further south...giving us all say 6" or so...we can blame not the high but that little system that gave us all 1-3" Tuesday night. For the more that system winds up off shore the better chance an WNW flow develops to our north forcing this weekend storm to turn ENE sooner than we'd want it to.

However, there is always next Tuesday with the potential for a second 6-12" event.

Got a little pipeline setup going on here.
Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
I was hoping to wake up and see north trends and WSW!!! And I got it!

AND today is my birthday!! Thanks mothernature please keep it up.

My track team is leave for NYC at 4pm. We're supposed to be heading home around 3 SAT from NYC, the one coach doesn't believe it's going to snow that much.....haha. Oh boy, we may not be coming home.
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
222. P451
NY, NY 430am Discussion

THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY STILL
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.


---

Yeah, PP, in fact I expect model fluctuations at least into tomorrow AM.

Remember, Dec 18th did the same thing with the Dec 19 storm. Had me slated for 4-8... TWC had me in for 1-3.

Why? Because these guys now adjust their forecasts to match the models directly - and not only that - models they FAVOR.

So prepare for more flip flopping.

Today probably won't yield the answers we are looking for.

Tomorrow will. It's a shame that the Dec 19th storm wasn't properly predicted until the actual onset of the heavy precip! We're talking less than SIX HOURS before the storm really started hitting me hard!!!

So, I'm not putting much stock into these models yet.

They are all basing the track on the strength and position of the high...which I think they are overdoing.

If they weren't I'd be sitting at 24F not 34F.

Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
I don't know, breald... I think New England as a whole is out of this one as the storm is just going too far south for you guys to get much more than passing showers. Your concerns may be more wind and coastal flooding if this thing really bombs it over the water.

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I watched my local met this morning in Southern New England who said the latest model runs are putting us in a dusting to maybe a few inches of snow. But nothing significant.

So, from what I can gather from you guys we have to wait and see how far south the storm exits the east coast? So it is possible we will get more snow here in New England?
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Well like Blizz said... 12Z should tell the tale. We'll probably know at noon who wins and who loses. The sudden shift south last night with 0Z and the return north with 6Z baffles me, but hopefully Blizz's reasoning behind that is right. The statement I just posted from CTP makes it seem as if they believe a northern shift is likely and that our beloved Lower Susquehanna Valley is going to do very well.

I'm still a bit worried, but I also think we'll do alright in the end.
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218. P451
Quoting Blizzard92:
PalmyraPunishment- I would like to make sure 12z do not re-adjust back towards 0z, but this is probably the typical bias to overstrengthen blocking to the north. 6z guidance is pretty impressive!


I definitely think the models are over-doing the blocking feature and thus want to trend South and East.

It was 9 degrees warmer overnight than predicted here.

That tells me something right there. It's already 34 here. We're almost at our predicted high.

I bet once that blocking high moves the models will pick up on it being weaker than they forecasted and they will trend the storm back north.

We've seen this time and again this season.
Member Since: 16 décembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202

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