The Northeast Weather Blog...

Blizzard conditions Feb. 9-10...
Posted by: Zachary Labe, 20:21 GMT le 03 février 2010 +0
Most computer guidance is unanimous in a strengthening a double barrel low pressure setup redeveloping on the east coast. Climatology and past analogs support this, featuring a widespread precipitation event for the entire eastern seaboard. Due to animous blocking this will allow the storm system to affect southern areas more so than Northern New England.

Thoughts on February 5-7 Snowstorm...
A anomalous southerly flow is allowing cirrus clouds to stream overhead as 'the calm before the storm' infects the entire Middle Atlantic region. As this flow continues to increase, national water vapor loop is indicating over +4SD moisture anomalies streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of a low pressure developing in Louisiana. As the infrared and water vapor loops take on the classic comma head approach, cloud tops continue to cool towards Texas and Louisiana noting the actual intensity of this storm system. As the low deepens below 1004mb, plumes of moisture will stream up the eastern seaboard with PWATs (precipitate waters) rising to near 1.2in across the southern Middle Atlantic. As the low pressure attempts to move northeastward, a low undergoing bombogenesis in the northern Atlantic is slow pulling away. The simple physics element of uniform polars repelling will be the example set forth by the unusual blocking scenario to the north where the low is already progged to be near 944mb. The exact displacement of this low is critical to the northern extent of the SLP (surface low pressure) track. Also to note is the correlating negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) phase below -1 along with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) and negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) ridge. These all indicative of cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard. Located in southern Canada is also a polar vortex, which will slowly be retrograding northeastward, but will pose critical again to the northern progression of this storm system.

By Friday morning weak dbz (virga) will likely be across southern Virginia and West Virginia as mid levels around 10000ft are indicative of RH (relative humidity) less than 40% by GFS bufkit prognostics. But shortly thereafter moisture will stream into the region with the stratiform snowshield marching slowly to the north in contrast with a weakening and departing high over northern Pennsylvania. As the SLP tracks into South Carolina Friday mid morning precipitation will be into Washington DC and southern Maryland. A weak easterly flow at the surface will allow for thermals to favor rain for those south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, but increasing inversion heights will allow cold air damming to favor severe freezing rain in the foothills of the Appalachians. By Friday late morning things begin to get interesting as the 850hPa low tracks into southern North Carolina on a east-northeast trajectory. Using the typical rule of thumb of the heavy snow axis about 100+mi north of the 850hPa low track, heavy snow will likely be across northern Virginia into Maryland as a strong convergence zone develops across the region. Increasing isentropic lifts heights will favor precipitation rates over .1/hr for standard QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast). With a favorable low level jet near 60knots around 850-925mb aloft, strong vertical lift will favor frontogenesis heights increasing over Maryland and northern Virginia by early afternoon with snowfall totals already around 2-4in for parts of northern Virginia and into West Virginia. As the 700hPa low tracks through southern Kentucky, the stratiform precipitation shield will finally lift northward above the Pennsylvania I-76 turnpike by early afternoon with precipitation in the form of snow. As for temperatures during most of this event, use a simple rule of thumb... Take your wetbulb/dewpoint temperature at the onset of falling precipitation and add on 3-4F. That then will likely be the temperature for the most part during the entire system especially considering WAA (warm air advection) is confined to southern Virginia on southward.

By Friday evening, the northern extent of the precipitation shield will likely be between I-76 and I-80 with virga to the north. A strong convergence axis in northern Maine with increasing momentum transfer of air particles will favor cold air diving into the northern edge of the storm with favorable snow growth zones highlighted as followed. High resolution models are indicative of increasing dendritic growth along the Pennsylvania turnpike south to northern Maryland with H85s temperatures near (-5)-(-8)C during a majority of the event. With excellent snow growth levels around 10000ft, ratios in this region will be in the realm of 12:1 or 15:1 making for a fluffy snowfall once again. Take for instance KMDT (Middletown/Harrisburg, PA) QPF totals from December 19 at .66in, yet 8.8in of snow was officially measured. Keep in mind ratios are defined by temperatures aloft, and not boundary layer (2m-10m) temperatures. Another mesoscale feature will likely occur from Washington DC northward into northern Maryland and perhaps southern Pennsylvania with the formation of coastal/surface front which will serve as an axis for snowfall rates near 2-3in/hr. Finally the formation of a CIS/CCB band is likely towards central and northern Maryland also as a potential gravity wave forms in central Virginia along the northern right front quadrant north of the warm front as rising air parcels continue to rise and sink favoring anomalous precipitation rates. These mesoscale features will serve in isolated higher amounts of snowfall in the northern Middle Atlantic during the height of the event Friday night.

As pressure falls along the SLP track near the Virginia/North Carolina border increase to -3mb/hr, cyclogenesis will favor in a deformation axis towards Maryland and Virginia in particular adding an additional .5in of QPF that northern areas will not see in the precipitation shield. This axis will also be accompanied by strong vertical lift courtesy of the cold air covergence layer favoring mixing aloft allowing a transfer of winds to the surface with gusts over 35-40mph along the coast with blizzard thesholds being met potentially as far west as Annapolis.

As the low pulls away during the later half of Saturday, precipitation will quickly end from west to east leaving a sigificant snowfall in its wake especially over Maryland and northern Virginia into northern Delaware. The northern edge of this precipitation shield is highly uncertain with guidance recently trending to the south courtesy of anomalous blocking, so at this point those from the Pennsylvania turnpike and on northward should be playing on the conservative route. There will likely be a sharp cutoff between the horizontal lines of Indiana, Pennsylvania-Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-Allentown, Pennsylvania and Butler, Pennsylvania-Williamsport, Pennsylvania-Scranton, Pennsylvania. This exact location is yet to be determined, but guidance suggests this may even sink south especially looking at foreign models. In any case elevation and orographic lift along with higher snow ratios may favor heavy snow along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike. The bullseye appears to be in northern Maryland from southern to central Hartford County and a country east and west of that. Isolated snow totals may be near 30-32in in this region. See more information below on snow totals. Also for those in southern Pennsylvania, watch for the slim possibility of a mesoscale band forming along the cold conveyor belt of the northern end of the precipitation shield. This sometimes is a common factor in terms of strong blocking with limited northern extent of QPF. This was noted recently from the past light to moderate snowfall that 'overperformed.' At this point the highest "bust" potential so to speak exists from Altoona to Harrisburg to Allentown to New York City. There will be sharp line between 12in and 1-2in. In any case this will be a high impact event, but fortunately the low will not be cutoff from the jet allowing for a general quick motion of the SLP out into the Atlantic with the duration of the storm only around 18hrs or so for most locations as the storm is out of here for many areas especially in Pennsylvania north of the deformation by noon. Stay tune for any updates and/or changes during the day Friday. Have a great day!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...

Farmville, Virginia - Ashland, Virginia - Warsaw, Virginia - Salisbury, Maryland - Ocean View, Delaware

*Note this line is a general estimation for precipitation type (rain vs. snow) during the height of the precipitation. As the deformation axis departs, this line will likely drop southward. Also during any intense convection correlated with a gravity wave development may favor brief periods of sleet especially towards La Plata, Maryland and the southern suburbs of Washington DC. Also south towards the Appalachians in North Carolina a major freezing rain/ice storm is likely to occur with QPF amounts in excess of .5in of pure freezing rain. North of this line by about 20mi will definitely have all snow.

Storm Reports...
COMING WHEN PRECIPITATION COMMENCES!!!

Storm Impacts...
1. Impressive mesoscale banding in northern quadrant favoring isolated snow totals up to 30in in northern Maryland.
2. High winds near 40-60knots aloft will allow for mixing to filter gusts over 35mph especially within 50mi of the coast.
3. High impact on Friday evening commute with precipitation lasting through Saturday afternoon.
4. Heavy snow (+4in) will fall from western Virginia northward into southern New York state and southern Connecticut.
5. Sharp northern QPF gradient favoring a line horizontally across Pennsylvania between Mansfield, Pennsylvania and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Snow Map...

*Note the region at the 5-9in/12in line will more likely be in the range for 8-14in. There is a high bust potential in this event considering the sharp northern cutoff, so any swing of 25mi for the surface low track will change forecasts dramatically.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow, 18-26in isolated higher amounts
Baltimore, MD- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolate higher amounts
Salisbury, MD- Sleet/freezing rain/snow, 3-7in
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolated higher amounts
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow, 12-18in
Dover, DE- Heavy snow/sleet/freezing rain, 5-12in
Trenton, NJ- Heavy snow, 6-10in
New York City, NY- Moderate snow at times, 2-5in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Binghamton, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Albany, NY- Cloudy with flurries
Hartford, CT- Cloudy with light snow, C-1in
Concord, NH- Cloudy
Providence, RI- Cloudy
Worcester, MA- Cloudy
Boston, MA- Cloudy
Nantucket, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Hyannis, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Portland, ME- Mostly cloudy
Bangor, ME- Partly cloudy
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Computer model mayhem can best be describing this entire scenario with striking differences for the northern edge of the QPF shield. The GFS/ECMWF combo seems to have the best consistency, but the NAM/ETA/MM5 seem a good deal further south highlighting strong confluence to the north. For now I took a general 1.0in QPF line from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Reading with 2.0in QPF along the Mason-Dixon line. This fits well with local SREFs except for a bit of tweaking. The biggest concern is the NAM and GGEM runs, but for now the NAM seems to have have some initiating issues illustrating 5 vortices of energy at the height of the storm indicative of QPF problems. It also has a east-southeast trajectory at one point which is suspicious to say the least. The GFS seems to have a better hold on the system, but looking back at similarities in the December 19th event, the GFS did have the precipitation shield well too far northwest with the NAM scoring on the chalkboard so this arises some concern. In any case high resolution models for the 0z cycle will be interesting, but probably siding more towards the NAM. I also took my .1in line about as far north as KUNV with little QPF towards IPT. In any case this event is marginal in terms of confidency so stay tuned to the latest.

After the storm...
Interesting potential lies ahead in the medium and long range as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to be well below normal negative values diving once again into off the charts territory. With a similar negative AO oriention I expect a constant feed of cold Canadian air into the northern half of the United States. With above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic blocking will continue to favor favorable conditions for east coast cyclogenesis and below normal temperatures. The first threat appears quickly on the horizon for Monday-Tuesday with ECMWF taking a miller B scenario with 6-10in amounts across the entire northeast on the 12z 2/4/10 run. The GFS takes a less amplified approach with light amounts scraping New England perhaps with some higher totals. In any case wavelengths have also favored this time period for an east coast storm threat. I have not really focused, as expected, on this scenario, but it is the next threat posed towards the east coast. Also towards Sunday-Tuesday upslope from weak shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes will favor 1-4in of light snow over the snow belts of northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands into Garret County, Maryland. Cold air advection will also be widespread across the northern Middle Atlantic with highs Sunday-Tuesday ranging 7-14F below normal into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits courtesy of 850mb temperatures around -10C or below and 1000-500mb thicknesses below 530dm. After the Monday-Tuesday threat, wavelengths favor a day 8 threat with foreign guidance such as the JMA posing a Miller A winter storm threat with a low pressure ejecting out of the gulf of Mexico. In any case the next two weeks are likely to feature well below normal temperatures with several threats of snow from coastals to clippers. On a side note Lake Erie surface ice has definitely increased especially towards the shallow portions of the lake near Cleveland so the heavy lake effect snow is likely done for the season.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 20.75in
Monthly Total- 43.25in
Seasonal Total- 61.35in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 43.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 11.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in

Weather wizard (Patriot News)Link.

Sure has been a long cold spell" is a lackluster comment you'd hear at a social gathering when a person can't think of anything else to say.

Not so with Zachary Labe. The 17-year-old junior at Central Dauphin High School is passionate about weather. So passionate that he's one of just 28 high school students who've been accepted for membership in the American Meteorological Society, the association for radio and television forecasters.

If that isn't passionate enough, there are the weather instruments in Labe's bedroom. They make noise. Day and night. One goes off if the temperature makes an abrupt change, another when a storm begins, and there are more.

Even if it's 2 a.m. and snow or rain snow begins, the alarm wakes Labe. In seconds he's out of bed, running through the upstairs hall yelling, "There's a storm!" And out he goes in the middle of it. In a rainstorm, he takes a lightning detector.

Among Labe's large collection of weather equipment is a top-of-the-line weather station that the federal government uses, but he doesn't use it. "It's not very accurate," he said.

After taking a National Weather Service class, Labe could get an account from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which gives him information to interpret for a weather forecast. And Labe is usually right on. In fact, his prediction is accurate more often than professional forecasters,' he said.

Take the night of Jan. 22-23. Several meteorologists said we'd have rainstorms, perhaps thunder. Labe's prediction said nothing about precipitation. Not a drop fell.

"It's impossible to be perfect in predicting," Labe said. "But you can be less imperfect than others."

Forecasts can't be perfect because forecasters make interpretations. NOAA's "super computers" take information such as wind velocity and humidity and use mathematical equations to transfer the results onto maps and graphs.

Labe interprets NOAA's information, figures out a forecast, then color codes several of NOAA's blank maps of the U.S. to indicate information including temperatures, the jet stream swish and humidity.

In 2007, at age 14, Labe started forecasting with about 10,000 other amateur meteorologists on the Web site Weather Underground -- www.wunderground.com -- under the name "Blizzard92," which he used because he was young and the Internet can be a dangerous place.

The folks at the California-based site noticed Blizzard92's accuracy and in 2009 sent Labe an e-mail asking if he'd be one of nine featured forecaster bloggers in the country, taking on Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. Of course, he would.

As a featured blogger, Blizzard92 had to upload a photograph of himself. This took the cat that was his age right out of the bag. Not only were the Weather Underground people amazed that he was 17 and had expert knowledge, Labe received thousands of comments on the site.

And the other eight people selected? They all have degrees in meteorology.

Labe's interest in weather ignited long before he was 12. He often heard his grandparents and uncle discussing the weather. They were farmers, and weather was vital to their livelihood.

Labe didn't say a whole lot, but he started accumulating books on meteorology and weather history. He stayed up nights watching the skies during storms, recorded information in a weather journal and asked for a weather station. His parents bought him an inexpensive one to start. It, of course, led to more equipment.

Labe belongs to Skywarn Storm Spotter for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When there's a storm and tree branches fall or other damage happens, he reports it to NOAA.

Among his other memberships are the Mount Washington Weather Observation Service in New Hampshire and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, to which he sends precipitation amounts every 24 hours.


Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Categories: Winter Storm Blog
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351. RkTec 19:39 GMT le 04 février 2010    
I've been reading about a lot of people from New England traveling to Virginia, Delaware, and New Jersey for this event. That's how snow starved those folks are.
Member Since: 27 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
352. shipweather 19:41 GMT le 04 février 2010    
amazing...Mt. Holly is calling for mix across much of eastern PA/NJ.
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
354. snowkitty 19:43 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Closing announcements have begun...
Carroll County MD schools will close 2 hrs 45 mins early Friday...

Member Since: 18 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
355. breald 19:44 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting RkTec:
I've been reading about a lot of people from New England traveling to Virginia, Delaware, and New Jersey for this event. That's how snow starved those folks are.


Hey we still have a 40% chance of snow here in Southern New England...LOL.
Member Since: 28 mai 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298
356. shipweather 19:46 GMT le 04 février 2010    
if you check the NWS map all counties have WSW, that must be a graphic error
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
357. shipweather 19:49 GMT le 04 février 2010    
BLIZZ!?!?! WHERE ARE YOU!?!
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
358. PalmyraPunishment 19:57 GMT le 04 février 2010    
NWS Conference call in 5 mins. Wonder if CTP will upgrade at that time.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
359. originalLT 19:59 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Blizz is probably on his way home from school. Yeah, it must have been a very distracting day at school for him, tough to concentrate on school work!
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048
360. MarylandGirl 19:59 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Not sure of Blizz'z bus ride but he should be on the way home now. Our high schools get out at 2:45......he should be on real soon.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 483
361. shipweather 19:59 GMT le 04 février 2010    
PP how did you find out that info?
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
362. engtchde 20:00 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Winter storm warning cancelled in DE. We are now under a blizzard warning!!!
363. shipweather 20:00 GMT le 04 février 2010    
MDGirl you're another weather wonderkid? Amazing. I hate that 22 makes me old on this blog (and it's my birthday!)
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
364. monymony 20:04 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting P451:
I love the rogue county in Northern Virginia that refuses to post any watches or warnings. Surrounded by winter storm warnings calling for feet of snow. LOL.



The NWS recently split Fauquier County into two separate zones. I suspect that source site for the maps are not handling the new zone designations.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/fauquier_change.php
365. 717WeatherLover 20:05 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Once Blizz & Heavy show up we should all sing Happy Birthday to shipweather!! I think I know what ship is gonna wish for when he blows out his candles!
Member Since: 18 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
366. shipweather 20:06 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting 717WeatherLover:
Once Blizz & Heavy show up we should all sing Happy Birthday to shipweather!! I think I know what ship is gonna wish for when he blows out his candles!


no doubt!
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
368. originalLT 20:07 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Happy birthday Ship. Take it from me , 22 is NOT old! What I wouldn't give to be 22 again. Happy Birthday!.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048
369. TraderRon 20:08 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Geez 22. I'm 68.

Remember the Blizzard of 1947..They called for Snow Flurries..25 inches fell. I didn't see a plow for a week We dug ourselves out...whew..
370. MarylandGirl 20:09 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Oh Ship not me. I worked for our local bd of ed for 30 years! I am far older than you!
Member Since: 10 septembre 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 483
371. MarylandGirl 20:09 GMT le 04 février 2010    
And Ship HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
Member Since: 10 septembre 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 483
372. shipweather 20:11 GMT le 04 février 2010    
haha, thanks everybody!!!! I can't wait until I can say, oh, I remember back in '10 we had a HUGE storm, way bigger than the old models thought. We only had 6 models to work off of in those days, not the 10,000 average systems we have now etc etc etc nostalgia.
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
373. shipweather 20:12 GMT le 04 février 2010    
WINTER STORM WATCH just posted for NYC and surrounding areas. Interesting stuff no doubt.
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
376. TraderRon 20:14 GMT le 04 février 2010    
We have Global Warming. There won't be any snowstorms in 50 years. :)
377. shipweather 20:14 GMT le 04 février 2010    
WINTER STORM WARNINGS POSTED
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
378. shipweather 20:15 GMT le 04 février 2010    
IT'S GAME TIME!!!!!!
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
380. shipweather 20:15 GMT le 04 février 2010    
it's amazing, it's just slowly starting to get cloudy here, it's as if they wait for the clouds to move in before they put the warnings out!
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
381. zotty 20:16 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting shipweather:
WINTER STORM WATCH just posted for NYC and surrounding areas. Interesting stuff no doubt.


Happy birthday, and thanks for the heads up!

towards the pole, storm of '10! come to butthead...
Member Since: 19 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
382. PalmyraPunishment 20:17 GMT le 04 février 2010    
I win. 3:00 PM

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 PM Friday to 6 PM EST
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect
from 2 PM Friday to 6 PM EST Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is
no longer in effect.

A storm system developing over the northern Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon will track northeast to the Outer Banks of North
Carolina by late Friday night... before moving out over the
Atlantic Ocean Saturday.

Snow will move into the Laurel Highlands during the late morning and
early afternoon hours Friday... overspreading the remainder of the
region by nightfall. Snow is then expected to become heavy at
times... especially over the area south of Interstate 80 Friday night
into Saturday morning.

The snow will taper to scattered snow showers over most locations by
mid day Saturday.

Snowfall totals by the time the storm winds down Saturday are
expected to average in the 7 to 10 inch range in areas such as
Johnstown... Altoona and Lewistown. Amounts will be higher across
far southern Pennsylvania... possibly exceeding a foot over the
area from Bedford to Chambersburg east to cover much of the lower
Susquehanna valley. Amounts could approach two feet near the Maryland
border in Franklin... Adams... Lancaster and York counties.

The exact track of the storm is still uncertain. A slight jog to
the north would push heavy snow further north into the
state... perhaps closer to Interstate 80.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means a significant amount
of snow is forecast that will make travel dangerous. If you must
travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... blanket and a cellular
phone in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Stay tuned to NOAA
Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for
the latest updates. Additional details can also be found
at... weather.Gov/statecollege.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
383. TraderRon 20:17 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Woo Woo..Rubs hands.
384. PalmyraPunishment 20:18 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting zotty:


Happy birthday, and thanks for the heads up!

towards the pole, storm of '10! come to butthead...


hey... *looking at chelsea clinton* i noticed you have braces. i have braces too. huhhuh huh huhuh huh
Member Since: 31 janvier 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
385. zotty 20:21 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


hey... *looking at chelsea clinton* i noticed you have braces. i have braces too. huhhuh huh huhuh huh


excellent- I was hoping you would know what I was saying there.

2' for you! and they seem to be more concerned about a track further north. excellent
Member Since: 19 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
386. shipweather 20:21 GMT le 04 février 2010    
I'm going to be leaving for NYC at 4pm. I'll be staying in Parsippany which is under a WSWarning. I'll try to give updates from there when I'm not at the meet.

To keep track of weather at Ship check this link: http://webspace.ship.edu/weather/

there is also a link to a webcam. Will be valuable link. Enjoy this storm everyone! It's going to be awessssssome.
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
387. Paul0108 20:23 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Winter Storm Warning for Virginia
Statement as of 2:10 PM EST on February 04, 2010


... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 am Friday to
10 PM EST Saturday...

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 am Friday to
10 PM EST Saturday.

* Precipitation type... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... storm total accumulations of 20 to 28 inches.

* Timing... snow will begin around daybreak Friday... and will
continue through Saturday evening. Conditions will deteriorate
rapidly by early Friday afternoon... with heaviest snowfall
occurring from late Friday afternoon through sunrise Saturday.

* Visibilities... heavy snow will reduce visibilities to below one-
quarter mile at times Friday night and Saturday morning.

* Temperatures... highs around 30 Friday. Temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 20s Friday night and Saturday.

* Winds... becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph Friday with gusts to
25 mph Friday night and Saturday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Conditions in this storm are expected to be comparable to those
in the storm of 19 December. Plan for substantial disruptions to
travel Friday afternoon through the weekend.

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow are
expected or occurring. Strong winds are also possible. This will
make travel very hazardous or nearly impossible Friday night.


388. 717WeatherLover 20:24 GMT le 04 février 2010    
We'll miss you, ship!
Member Since: 18 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
389. PalmyraPunishment 20:25 GMT le 04 février 2010    
track meet in a blizzard? that... i would like to see.

Voice over PA: Up next is the pole vault. All pole vaulters take place for the pole vault.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
390. shipweather 20:26 GMT le 04 février 2010    
INDOOR TRACK!!! still need to warm up outside haha.
Member Since: 15 décembre 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 946
392. MarylandGirl 20:29 GMT le 04 février 2010    
P451-you're right. According to that map I will get less than about 6" and our warning is for 16+. Who do they get their stuff from? Al Gore?
Member Since: 10 septembre 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 483
393. PalmyraPunishment 20:32 GMT le 04 février 2010    
actually, MdGirl... they do

TWC has gone to hell since jumping on the Global Warming train. I live in hell... I see TWC every day at Turkey Hill buying powerball. Miserable existence TWC lives.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
395. zotty 20:32 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Blizz- I hope you are pouring over the models before popping on here. You've been jumping on around 2:30 most days, but not so today. Sully is AWOL, and now your conspicuous absence. hmmm...

anyone think the Accuweather guys are kidnapping our fearless leaders? someone might want to check that out.

Then again, maybe you got detention for bouncing out of your chair b/c you are soooo pumped!
Member Since: 19 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
396. 717WeatherLover 20:33 GMT le 04 février 2010    
I suspect Blizz is currently typing as fast as his fingers will to get his two cents in. We Blizz groupies sit waiting with baited breath.....
Member Since: 18 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
397. originalLT 20:33 GMT le 04 février 2010    
You may be stranded in NYC. Ship. Getting back to Pa. Sat. will be impossible!
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048
398. zotty 20:33 GMT le 04 février 2010    
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
actually, MdGirl... they do

TWC has gone to hell since jumping on the Global Warming train. I live in hell... I see TWC every day at Turkey Hill buying powerball. Miserable existence TWC lives.


lol... no, lmao
Member Since: 19 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
399. GoldsboroPA 20:34 GMT le 04 février 2010    

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY..


PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-050815-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0001.100205T1900Z-100206T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.100205T1900Z-100206T2300Z/
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
309 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION BY NIGHTFALL. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST LOCATIONS BY
MID DAY SATURDAY.

SNOWFALL TOTALS BY THE TIME THE STORM WINDS DOWN SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 7 TO 10 INCH RANGE IN AREAS SUCH AS
JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA AND LEWISTOWN. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING A FOOT OVER THE
AREA FROM BEDFORD TO CHAMBERSBURG EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH TWO FEET NEAR THE MARYLAND
BORDER IN FRANKLIN...ADAMS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A SLIGHT JOG TO
THE NORTH WOULD PUSH HEAVY SNOW FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
STATE...PERHAPS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...BLANKET AND A CELLULAR
PHONE IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND
AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

Member Since: 11 octobre 2009 Posts: 15 Comments: 54
400. TheRasberryPatch 20:34 GMT le 04 février 2010    
snowkitty - if the snow starts in the morning sometime i think you will be seeing more counties in Maryland closing early. If the temp is below 32F and it starts to snow before noon they will all be shutting down and they won't wait for lunch to be over either.
Member Since: 26 janvier 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5633
401. SilverShipsofAndilar 20:34 GMT le 04 février 2010    
18z NAM only prints out 1.25" QPF for central PA. QPF numbers are dropping with this storm. I'm not liking this.
Member Since: 1 décembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

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About Blizzard92
Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations
Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Température: 64.6 ° F
Point de rosée: 51.3 ° F
Humidité: 62%
Vent: Calme
Rafale de vent: 0.0 mph
Updated: 22:01 EDT le 17 mai 2013
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