October Color Reflections...
Autumnal equinox has finally signaled the transition season before winter fastens its grip across the entire northern United States. October is an interesting month weatherwise and often noted for foreshadowing winter patterns down the road. Seasonal high temperatures often drop from near 70F to in the upper 50s by the month's end with most areas receiving their first frost and freeze. Fall festivals have begun including the almost wonderful Apple Festivals of the Pennsylvania dutch country. Fall leaves are changing rapidly for northern Pennsylvania courtesy of the anomalous dry period from August through the third week of September. These drought conditions with less than 0.1in of rain for many areas in combination with the near record highs of early September created the catalyst for a dull color seasons. Foresters are predicting peak color conditions for the northern mountains in Pennsylvania for the first week of October. Maples are near peak already with oaks just a bit behind. Farther south across the ridge and valley region, colors are at about 20% especially at or above 1800ft with Virginia Creepers, Birch, Red Maple, etc reaching peak by about the second week of October. Across southern Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delware, Fall colors will be early this year, but remain dull for another few weeks. Colors likely regionwide will be dull and more brown/yellows than reds/oranges thanks to the lack of rain. The recent flooding rain is just a few weeks too late to help the local forests. Oaks of the highlands in northcentral Maryland and southcentral Pennsylvania will likely reach peak by Halloween. Out across western Maryland in Garret and Alleghany County, peak conditions are occuring with ideal picture taking likely this week along Deep Creek Lake near McHenry. Towards the Poconos leaves will be reaching peak by about October 10, but already many leaves are down courtesy of 30-40mph winds above 1500ft and heavy rain from the coastal low. World's End State Park and the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon will remain ideal locations to visit for foliage for this weekend and next.
As the leaves shed and begin to Fall, the dark grayness of winter is already evident. While I focused my last blog on my winter outlook, it is critical to note that at this point the science behind long term forecasting is minimal. While accuracy has greatly improved in the last five or so years, forecasts are based on general trends and patterns with correspondance to several select indices focusing on past analogs. SO conditions have remained steadfast in the department of La Nina, but SST anomalies have begun to wane from their impressive decreasing trend. A bit of a WWB (Westerly Wind Burst) has been noted in Nino 3.4, which has allowed for a hint of warming SSTs, but this is nothing that calls for alarm of the Nina's end. In fact recent CFS ensemble runs indicate some of the lowest SST anomalies for DJF that I have ever seen progged. It is important to note that while Ninas have often been considered detrimental to snow chances in the northern Middle Atlantic, statistics on past data are so varied that correlations are extremely weak. Each Nina year seems provided with extremes both temperature and precipitation wise. It is also important to make remark on the lack of southeast ridge at this point. Typically we begin to see signs of a building southeast ridge by about October, and at this point this remains absent. Temperatures have been mild courtesy of continental warmth from Pacific maritime airmasses as the cold remained bottled up in the Arctic circle. Recent sea ice and snow cover anomaly charts have started their upswing in coverage with snowfall accumulations already being reported in parts of Alaska and into the higher Rockies. In fact standard deviation charts show that snow cover is actually above the mild winter years of 2007 and 2008, which is a good sign. Teleconnections indicate a near neutral NAO and AO, which should allow the cold to continue to build. Atlantic SST anomalies have also begun to finally wane in response to the recurving series of hurricanes in September as cool waters hundreds of feet below churned up by high surf to the surface. The problems remain in the Pacific with a stark negative PDO once again and the continued trend of global mild temperatures. None the less I have a feeling the very, very mild forecasts for the winter from some will not pan out.
(Fig 1- 12z ECMWF/GFS 10-day 850hPa thermal mean anomalies)
Finally, a near normal temperature pattern will exist across much of the eastern northern United States as ridging strengthens over the northern Midwest and Pacific Northwest with weak troughing in Ontario. The warmest temperatures for the next two weeks look to be in the October 8-9th time frame and October 13-15 with temperatures back into the 70s and 50s for lows. GFS has been signaling a cold regime after a stark cold frontal passage around mid October with regionwide frosts. The GFS has some support from the ECMWF and GEFS, especially for the mild period in early mid month. Link. Precipitation chances remain about near normal with 16 day GFS meteograms averaging about 1-4in QPF for the period.
In the nearer term, another wet week is possible for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Many areas are still drying out from near record rainfall in the region, especially along a narrow corridor along the Chesapeake Bay coast up through eastern Pennsylvania. A weak offshore wave will meander off the coast in the Monday to Wednesday time frame. This is response with a strong east-northeast flow will allow for a positive correlation maritime flow off the Atlantic with light rain chances in the Monday to Wednesday time frame. A large cold pool of air over Newfoundland with a 1024mb high pressure to the west will set the stage for a cold air damming flow east of the mountains with well below normal high temperatures. In fact Monday high temperatures may not even reach 55F for areas as 850mb heights remain below 5C with pockets of 1-2C across the central Appalachians...
Rain will not be too heavy at one period, but a steady drizzle to moderate rain shower activity will allow for QPF totals to possibly build to above 1in or so for many areas especially along and east of the Hagerstown-State College-Lock Haven line. Inversion levels will allow for very low ceilings below 900ft creating IFR conditions for much of Monday through Wednesday. East of the mountains, slightly warmer temperatures and higher stratus will keep aviation conditions at MVRF. Going with a ECMWF/GGEM split with the GFS being an outlier (just a bit too progressive). 2 October 2010 12utc ECMWF run actually prints out QPF totals of 1-5in for areas in the east, so this heavy rain potential will need to be monitored. The lack of coastal low organization and lacking influence of an anomalous low level jet should inhibit heavy precipitation rates despite PWATs at +2SD. As the 850hPa low tracks south of the region and pulls out by Thursday, clearing skies and warmer temperatures will be present for the week's end. Temperatures will average slightly above normal as 850mb heights rise back to near 8-10C with weak upper level ridging in a response to a quick blurp positive NAO. The weekend will feature temperatures in the low 70s regionwide with sunshine and lows in the 50s with a cold front approaching for early of that next week.
"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 12
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 18
(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 4
Monthly Precipitation- 1.05inches (October)
Yearly Precipitation- 33.08inches
(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 38
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)
"National Radar"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17
KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 13
TheRaspberryPatch - October 16
Wunderstorm87- October 18
KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 20
Wunderstorm87- September 27
TheRaspberryPatch - October 1
Tazmanian- October 12th
KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 21
Wunderstorm87- October 1
TheRaspberryPatch - October 3
Tazmanian- October 10th
KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 22
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5th
KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17
Blizzard92- November 1
Wunderstorm87- November 5
Tazmanian- November 5th
KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch- October 17
Wunderstorm87- October 23
Blizzard92- October 25
Tazmanian- Oct 26th
KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
weathergeek5- October 22
Tazmanian- October 25th
TheRaspberryPatch - October 28
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 5
KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - November 4
Blizzard92- November 12
Tazmanian- November 12th
Wunderstorm87- November 23
KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
Tazmanian- October 17th
Reader Comments
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Seems that way as far as certain areas that were forecasted to have a mild winter (e.g. upper southeast or the mid-atlantic states) is concerned. One thing that I'm watching for now is the snowcover taking place, with special attention toward Siberia. As of today, gains were explosive in that country, as well as a good bit of gains in other areas and sea ice coverage is now above last year's, approaching toward the 2005 total around this time.
Aside from that, this exactly reminds me of the big debate back in 2002-2003 where most people said it will be a warm winter and it turned out to be cold instead, especially for the eastern half of the U.S. and parts of the Pacific NW and SW region. Of course, there was an el nino occurring then, but here we're dealing with a non-typical la nina, which will not bring its normal conditions for the U.S., despite its strength. This will be a season to bring a few surprises for sure.
looks like the day will be clear and sunny after all
Heat lightning last night with light showers this am. Temp 82, calm winds 82% Hu overcast.
we are on the fringe bands of TS Otto looking at the Sat pics.
waves 0-6 in out of the west.
...A NEW MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE STATE OF WEST VIRGINIA WAS
SET IN FEBRUARY 2010...
A MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 158.2 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT BAYARD WEST
VIRGINIA (COOP ID 460527) THIS PAST FEBRUARY...BREAKING THE OLD
STATE RECORD OF 104.0 INCHES AT TERRA ALTA WEST VIRGINIA (COOP ID
468777) SET IN JANUARY 1977 FOR THE SNOWIEST MONTH. A STATE CLIMATE
EXTREMES COMMITTEE (SCEC) CONSISTING OF MEMBERS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE (NWS)... NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER (NCDC)...
NORTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER (NRCC) AND THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST REVIEWED THE RELEVANT METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO ENSURE
THAT OBSERVATIONS AT THE SITE FOLLOWED NWS PROTOCOL FOR SNOWFALL
MEASUREMENTS. FOLLOWING INITIAL APPROVAL BY THE SCEC AND FINAL
APPROVAL BY THE DIRECTOR OF NCDC...THE FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWFALL TOTAL
OF 158.2 INCHES AT BAYARD IS NOW RECOGNIZED AS THE OFFICIAL MONTHLY
SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE STATE OF WEST VIRGINIA.
I saw that. They really shattered the old record!
awesome site, looks much better than TWC.
Beautiful day ahead everyone, loving the cool crisp air this morning.
EDIT: about 58 degrees here
For the most part Pittsburgh, does not get much winter weather until at least mid November. That being said a stark cold blast is likely for the end of October into early November. But even with that, the chance of snow and ice is low.
Maybe the possibility of a few flakes flying? I love to see those first flakes even if they don't stick. Most years I've seen flakes here toward the end of October and often with an Indian summer immediatley following.
Nah I like the late Decemeber(24th-30th) and Mid-Janurary 18-Feb 12) cold blasts much better for significant winter precip.
SST Anomalies will moderate heading into December and the La Nina will weaken quite noticably in Janurary.
...I also had 80-85 for this weekend back on October 1st.
A low of 40F this morning. a bit chilly
what is your outlook for the week, Blizz?
TheRasberryPatch- Yep 12:30pm we entered the long line into the parking lot and finally parked by 2pm something, ugh! New blog will be coming out tomorrow morning.
Morn P et al
12.5N, 70W
88 now few clouds breezy
12.5N; 70W
Sunny, temps 88 and rising, waves zilch, 70% hu
Tomorrow more of the same
Get to trade this for rain and cold in the PA mts this weekend
Quiz: How pink does a white irish kid with freckles get under the shade of a palm tree in 5 hours at this latitude with full sun
After today, I doubt it gets too warm this month.
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