Widespread Winter Storm; January 11-12...
Thoughts on January 11-12 Snowstorm...
A 1008mb low pressure is developing off the coast of Texas spreading of plethora of moisture northward along the Gulf Coast states. The low is courtesy of a deep trough sinking south towards the middle of the nation with an accompained strong 500mb low. With the trough axis being situated relatively far west, a low pressure will develop along a weak jet streak towards Missouri and slowly move northward. This low pressure will weaken and shear apart the Gulf of Mexico low pressure. Both lows will begin to lift northeastward with moisturing favoring the primary low and coastal low near Georgia. In between a dry slot will affect parts of the central Appalachians with moisture less than .15in. As the double barrel low complex continues to progress, the primary low over the Ohio valley will begin to weak and shear apart courtesy of significant blocking across northern Canada with a near record low Arctic Oscillation and negative NAO. This will begin an energy transfer restrengthening the coastal low. The timing of this transfer of energy remains highly uncertain at this point and will be very important to the evolution of this system as it traverses up the coastline with a heavy snowstorm across New England.
By Tuesday morning widespread light snow will begin across the Middle Atlantic reaching the Mason-Dixon line. Snow will be relatively light with rates only about .25in per hour as model QPF suggests less than .25in south of the Mason-Dixon line as this region will essentially be in a dry slot. As the coastal low continues to develop, the precipitation shield will begin to intensify from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with moderate snow by early afternoon as far north as the Mason-Dixon line in a widespread manner with rates around .5in per hour. Given the retreating high over Canada, the system will be a relatively quick mover. Current high resolution model guidance shows excellent dendritic growth over much of Pennsylvania west the New Jersey/Pennsylvania border coinciding with H85 thermals below -6C. This will allow favorable snow ratios of 15:1 or slightly higher over central and western Pennsylvania. Current QPF for the state of Pennsylvania through Tuesday night will be around .25-.4in from the overrunning, warm air advection precipitation.
By Tuesday night the low will begin to rapidly intensify off the coast throw a strong CCB across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York. Favorable dendritic growth accompanied by enhanced frontogenesis will allow snow rates to increase to 1in/hr especially northeast of Trenton, New Jersey. The low will rapidly intensify to +-992mb by Wednesday morning with heavy snow across much of New England with several enhanced mesoscale bands. A tight pressure gradient will also allow surface winds to increase to 35mph+ gusts along the coast courtesy of a 50knot+ low level jet mixing occasionally down to the surface in heavy precipitation. The low will continue to move northeast with storm total QPF in excess of 1in from just northeast of New York City up through much of New England. Orographic lift across the Berkshires up through the Presidentials will enhance snowfall with storm totals upwards of 14in across the favored upslope regions. Given the relatively fast movement of the storm, snow totals should remain below 18in for all areas.
Many questions remain on the exact track and intensity of the low along with the question of timing on the transfer of energy. But the above summary gives a general basis to the evolution of the storm system. Expect more updates coming tomorrow.
Radar...
Warnings...
NAO...
This is my current rain/snow line...
Salisbury, Maryland - Georgetown, Delaware - Atlantic City, New Jersey - Islip, Long Island - Nantucket, Massachusetts
*Note west of this line will stay all snow for the entire duration of the storm. Along the line the snow will vary to sleet and perhaps rain for a point. But given the rapid cyclogensis the coastal low will undergo, most all areas even along the rainn/snow line will receive large snowfall accumulations especially as one moves north of Atlantic City.
Storm Reports...
STAY TUNED!
Storm Impacts...
1. Widespread snow accumulations in excess of 1in from Georgia to Maine.
2. Gusty winds as low pressure bombs out off of Long Island with gusts exceeding 35mph within 50mi of the Atlantic coast.
3. Heavy snow accumulations of 12in+ in parts of New England.
4. Embedded snow bands from New York City on northeastward with 2-3in/hr rates.
5. Very cold temperatures west of I-95 barely rising out of the low to mid 20s during the bulk of the snow accumulation.
Snow Map...
The more difficult locations for the forecast include central Pennsylvania and northern parts of New England across northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. These areas have the highest bust potential in this storm.
Selected City Snowfall Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Light to moderate snow; 1-3in
Baltimore, MD- Moderate snow at times; 2-5in
Salisbury, MD- Wet snow and sleet mix; 1-4in
Washington, DC- Light to moderate snow; 1-4in
Wilmington, DE- Moderate snow, heavy at times; 4-8in
Dover, DE- Moderate snow; 3-7in
Trenton, NJ- Moderate to heavy snow; 5-10in
Pittsburgh, PA- Moderate snow; 2-5in
State College, PA- Light to moderate snow; 1-4in
Harrisburg, PA- Moderate snow; 2-6in
Philadelphia, PA- Moderate to heavy snow; 5-9in
Scranton, PA- Moderate snow; 3-6in
New York City, NY- Heavy snow; 6-12in, locally more
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate to heavy snow; 4-8in
Binghamton, NY- Moderate snow; 3-6in
Albany, NY- Moderate to heavy snow at times; 3-7in
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow; 10-15in
New London, CT- Heavy snow; 10-15in
Concord, NH- Moderate to heavy snow; 6-12in
Providence, RI- Heavy blowing snow; 10-16in
Worcester, MA- Heavy snow; 12-16in
Boston, MA- Heavy snow, windy at times; 8-14in
Nantucket, MA- Heavy snow mixing with sleet at times, windy; 4-9in
Hyannis, MA- Heavy snow, windy with drifting snow; 7-13in
Portland, ME- Heavy snow; 6-12in
Bangor, ME- Moderate to heavy snow; 4-9in
"Final Forecast Above"
Model Analysis
A very dynamic storm setup is creating model chaos with polarizing views dependent on the models. The high resolution models including the NAM, NMM, and ARW are indicating this storm becoming a bit more amplified allowing for a further west track. This allows the low to intensify quicker with heavier precipitation. Several mesoscale boundaries are being indicated especially towards southern New England particularily just northwest of New York City with an increased area of upward vertical velocities are present based on the NAM 700mb. The mesoscale boundaries will feature the heaviest snow rates accompanied by the best dendritic growth with hourly rates up to 2in per hour. Current GFS/NAM combination indicates a deep area of frontogenic forcing with an embedded CCB band across central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. Further south, the less dynamics will be available especially south of New York City with a weaker portion of the deformation band. The overrunning precipitation associated with the primary low over Ohio will spread light to moderate snows developing from Washington DC northward stretching from Columbus, OH to Reading, PA. Shortly, HIRES NMM simulated radar indicates a collapsing precipitation shield as energy is transferred off the coast. The simulated radar shows a large strengthening deformation band from about Harrisburg on eastward quickly moving north and east. The GFS and NAM differ on the strength of this axis as for QPF placement. Again the mesoscale, high resolution models show significantly more precipitation than the operational models of the GFS, ECMWF, and GGEM. Now the mesoscale models have a precipitation wet bias, but still the differences are quite significant in QPF in when taking in account the wet bias. The H5 charts are quite similar on all the guidance, but the surface plots differ. Given the general theme of declining QPF in antecedent runs leading up to the event, I am actually using GFS/ECMWF QPF has my primary blend. While yes the mesoscale models are quite wetter along with the SREF blend, the recent poor model QPF performance leads me to blend a bit conservative at this point. Considerable questions remain to where the dry slot occurs in Pennsylvania and how far north the heavy precipitation gets across northern New England. These nuisances will likely only be discovered upon actual evaluation of the radar. For further reference, after tracking the RUC QPF during the December 26 storm, I found it to be highly inaccurate. Overall QPF performance has been very poor recently, so I am sticking with the low QPF blend.
After the storm...
As the low pressure zips northeast out of the region, an anticyclonic flow will resume with a bit of lake effect snow. The air mass left in its wake will be very dry likely preventing a widespread lake effect snow outbreak. The flow also favors a northerly trajectory, keeping a hold on the lake effect machine. A few areas downwind of the lakes in the Syracuse-Finger Lake belt may receive a quick 3-6in in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Further south across Maryland and Pennsylvania the snow belts will likely get a minimal 1-5in including the Laurel Highlands. A weak disturbance will move across the area Friday with some light snow showers and flurries across the Northeast especially towards New York state. Little to no snow accumulation is likely. A very strong high pressure, 1038mb, will slowly move east out of the middle of the nation bringing clearing skies across the entire region towards Saturday. This high pressure will center itself across the Middle Atlantic likely bringing some radiational cooling Saturday night for one of the coldest nights of the winter. With a widespread snow cover over the entire east coast coupled with a below normal trough and low dewpoints, lows below zero are likely in the colder spots near Bradford, Pennsylvania and up across northern New York state along with parts of Maine. High temperatures much of the week will be around (-3)-(-7)F below normal for the entire Northeast, but especially for those with a solid snow pack. By Sunday, things begin to get interesting as a -3SD trough moves south over the Northern Plains with H85 thermals near -25C accompanied by a 1038mb high pressure. Lows over the Midwest may drop to near -20F or so in some areas across the north country. This arctic front will center itself across the Mississippi Valley along the steep temperature contrast. A low pressure will develop along the front, but it remains uncertain with regards to the track. In any case it is likely some light snow will exist along the arctic front as it cross through the Northeast with several heavy squalls given what appears a decent WINDEX event. The low pressure over the mouth of the Mississippi will just play another role. The ECMWF delays this arctic air mass a bit later in the week, so the long range definitely remains uncertain post Saturday, January 15. Following that I am expecting a slight rebound in temperatures to close the month of January with slightly above normal temperatures as the pattern reloads. The key word there is reloads. Current wavelengths support another wintry blast for an above normal snowfall February. At this point if this forecast holds, most all winter predictions will completely bust. As we say last year, an anomalous -AO will dominate despite whatever the ENSO conditions.
Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...
Please take an opportunity to vote in the new poll!
"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 6in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 7.75
Seasonal Total- 8.35in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 24.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 12.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
Dawn arises on a wintry landscape full of mystery and solitude.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 — Blog Index
Ugh. Slush fest :( Back to normal around here...
Meanwhile, Doc's blog is as dramatic as ever. I feel like it's starting to turn into the "Jersey Shore" of weather/climate enthusiasts, hahaha.
P451- Thanks for the list!
Come on P you are being a little disingenuous don't you think?
These situations usually result in prolonged mixed bags here, don't they, Blizz? As a result of CAD?
Norwalk is a tough town? I guess parts, but South Norwalk is as white bread/ gentrified as it gets. What town haven't you gotten into trouble in? :)
Thanks for posting those loops. They are great to see.
It is very complex and even the track is highly uncertain. The GFS would signal some 2-4in overrunning snow for us and then some icing before some plain rain. ECMWF is drastically different and eliminates the snow with just plain rain for us.
A GENERAL NWLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK
STORM SYSTEM WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR /-30 TO -40C AT H85/
BUILDING UP OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE IF IT
VERIFIES AS -30 TO -40C AIR AT 850MB HAS BEEN SEEN MUCH OVER THE
LAST 10 YEARS.-- End Changed Discussion --
I do have a question though for anyone who has an answer... If we've been breaking records for negative AO and negative NAO, why are we not shattering record low temperatures? Shouldn't we be seeing some negative teens down here in the coastal plain? The lowest temperature I had last year was a mild 14F and the lowest so far this year only 15F. Records here are generally -5F to -16F. If not breaking daily low temperatures, than why not getting close to or breaking record cold months/winters. In addition, when those features are starkly negative, shouldn't we be suppressing things out to sea? I know not every one should go out to sea, but the 6th Snowmaggedon to dump over 30" in 1 year and less than a month?
Those maps are created from extensive ice corps data that tell you a world of information. It's the DNA of climate. Don't you believe in science?
Yep, just use your own two eyes and you will see all need to see. It is scary what is happening. I just don't understand why people say this is ok. It is not ok.
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
He is a master of meteorology! He knows what he's talking about! Masters in every aspect of the earth sciences are watching it happen before their eyes, I don't even care what kind of earth science it is. Atmospheric sciences, Coastal Geography, Climatography, Biogeography, Glaciology, Hydrology, Oceanography just to name a few of many more who are all lining up by the droves to the same inescapable solution.
How did we get rid of all the ice from past ice ages? how about England back about 1500 years ago having the best wines in the world only to have the climate change again for France to have them again. and they still have the best climate for the best wines.
i have always wonder that...they say the globe has warmed by a fraction of a degree in so many years. They base it on a time when i have to question the accuracy of their equipment. How far back does a thermometer go that can reliably read a fraction of a degree? My guess is not long enough to base a world altering trend upon.
basically i question the comparison of readings taken now vs. 150 years ago vs. ice cores etc.
I remember driving from Flagstaff, Arizona to Las Vegas. Crystal clear sky all the way until we got to Las Vegas where the sky became hazy with smog. You cannot tell me 1) that does not have an adverse effect on the environment. 2)Humans are not causing the smog.
never quite considered Norwalk a tough town - Bridgeport maybe. But yes, it depends on what section of Norwalk you're in.
Congratulations to all who wanted snow and got it and to all who didn't and didn't. I, for one, am very grateful that we did not have a mess here on the VA/NC border. It is still so very cold and I don't think the warmth is predicted until Tuesday. There are still icy patches and snow-like crusts in shady spots.
So when is the next storm? Blizz, I bet you are working on the next blog (at least thinking about it) even as we speak
It should not, in fact, be called Global Warming. Something like Global Climatic Disruption would be much more accurate. Humans adversely disrupting the Earth, especially since the Industrial Revolution, whether through waste - often toxic - on land, in air or in water, is a FACT. We do it, have been doing it for some time and continue to do it. This should not be argued about. What we don't know is HOW it's affecting the Earth. It can't be all positives, that's for sure. Will temps rise and rise until we become a Venus like planet at some point in the future, whether it's 100 years or 1,000,000 or even 1,000,000,000 years? Possibly. Or will all these changes just push us into back into the Ice Age we're currently on reprieve from. Another possibility. Or will none of this be settled in our lifetimes and even 50 or 100 years from now we will still be as clueless and lost as we are now, ripping each other apart for their beliefs, as we do with religion and politics as well. A very real and unfortunate likelihood, that last one.
What irks me most is believers and non believers of so-called Global Warming (misnomer) using individual weather events, or even one or two seasons, or even a decade, to boost their argument and chastise those on the opposite side of the aisle. Anyone with a rational mind and solid logic knows that climate data cannot be derived from such an insignificant period of time.
What we need to do is realize the error in our ways. That we are indeed hurting the earth in significant and perhaps irreversible ways. whether it affects humanity now or a billion years from now. We try to change to a 'greener' world, and those who don't play along do so because they believe we can do whatever we want without repercussions. That's the mentality of humans, act now, worry later...or never. We are a young and ignorant race of humanoids who don't know any better, but somehow continue to evolve mentally and therefore have the ability to move beyond the petty arguments and divisive attacks that seem to threaten who we are as a species. We're still babies in this vast and mysterious cosmos.
Whether you believe in GW doesn't matter, it's knowing that we're here and we can work together on repairing the mess we've made that should be on the minds of every one of us. And I believe it is. I believe most people witness, often on a daily basis without even noticing because it's taken for granted, the countless blemishes we continually give to this only rock we call home. We're lucky to exist, of all the known and unknown stars in the universe, we came to be here, next to this one, third one over, with just the exact conditions for life as we know it.
"I've had my say, now here's Blizz with the weather..."
Am I right that this is the time of the year that not only are you snow watching but you are feed and seed browsing? Is there a correlation that you have noticed between winter weather and the crops for the coming season? Someone gave me some packets of "heirloom" seed. I wonder what that means and if that is accurate. I would like to get some soil turned over in a spot on the bay this year and maybe grow something... tomatoes, cucumbers, at least. But you know what I really want is some celery
The overwhelming majority of weather station used to be located in the heart of downtown city centers, right smack in the middle of the Urban Heat Islands. It wasn't until airports were built that they started getting smart and moving these stations from inner cities and out to the wide-open meadows of the airports where temperatures are much cooler. One example is the Philadelphia station movement from the Franklin Institute, smack in the middle of Center City, to the wide open Philadelphia International Airport in 1940. Another example is the Trenton NJ station, which was located in the cities urban center, moved to the wide open Mercer County Airport in the border suburb of Ewing on December 1st, 1981. Both stations contain records into the 1800's. I compared and averaged out the data from Trenton and Philadelphia prior to 1940. I then compared the data from 1940 to 1981 and found that Philadelphia's station move cooled by a couple of degrees. I then compared the data from 1981 to 2009. I found that Trenton's station moved cooled its average lows by 4 degrees, and cooled its record lows by an average of 6 degrees. I found that Trenton's average and record highs cooled by an average of 2 degrees.
Result Summary: In Philadelphia prior to 1940 and Trenton prior to 1981, normal and record lows are too warm and their normal and record highs are also too warm when compared with their movement to cooler locations. Fact is that average temperatures continue to rise and we continue to break record highs with each passing decade. We seldomly break record lows even though almost all of our stations are now located in cooler climates. The movement of stations from warmer inner cities to cooler airport climates is overwhelmingly the same story throught the rest of the country.
Ok. Good idea.
TT - there are just as many scientists lining up in droves to counter.
hurigo - I wish I could help you. I usually buy the plants from a farm and then plant them in my garden. As for celery, what I would suggest is get some celery seeds and start them in your house. Then when they get big enough transplant them to your garden. My celery this past season was very bitter. I didn't like it one bit. I will have to look into why and how you can maybe get it to be sweet.
I agree with you, LT. It would be great if we could discuss issues calmly for the purpose of greater understanding, and that's hard to do with emotional topics. I'll repeat Blizz's request that we maintain composure on the blog. All friends, with differing perspectives of course, which could be enlightening. I like learning the science and the historical context, since I don't know that much of it.
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 — Blog Index