Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...
Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...
Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.
The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.
The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.
Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.
The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.
At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.
While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.
The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!
Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...
-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event
-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs
-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF
Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.
As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.
A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX
Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...
-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm
-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper
-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php
-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm
-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm
-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#
The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.
I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.
"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!
"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Reader Comments
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Looks like you even have a slight chance of some mixing.
btw, "composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7" image isn't working.
Again remember that is the ECMWF verbatum, not what will likely actually happen.
Also that is strange; I see the chart just fine.
It is crazy early, and much earlier than I usually put forth any prediction. Things can and will change. The threat potential is certainly high enough that everyone needs to monitor the latest updates.
717WeatherLover- Yep, I am slightly excited for inland areas this time around. I guess more model watching this weekend, haha, along with tracking to see if we get below zero Monday morning.
The lowest temperatures recorded in the NWS Duluth county warning area were -46 degrees at both International Falls, MN (ASOS) and Babbitt, MN (CO-OP).
The -46 degree low was tied for the 5th lowest on record at International Falls. Temperature records date back to 1897. The record is -55 degrees which was recorded on January 6, 1909.
The -46 degree low was tied for the lowest on record at the International Falls Airport. The official observing station was moved to the airport in 1939. This is tied with the -46 degree reading from January 6, 1968.
The -25 degree low at Duluth is tied for the 5th lowest minimum temperature in the last decade (since 2000). The lowest minimum temperature of the 2000s thus far has been -30 on January 29, 2004.
The state record low temperature in Minnesota was recorded at Tower, Minnesota on February 2, 1996. The low was -60 degrees. That was also the coldest temperature ever recorded east of the Mississippi River.
The state record low temperature in Wisconsin was recorded at Couderay on February 2nd and February 4th of 1996. The temperatures dipped down to -55 degrees both nights.
List Of Coldest Morning Lows
Link
First time posting however I have been watching this blog since about Dec. 22 when Blizz pegged the forecast for the Christmas storm and my local mets were saying 1-2 in. We ended up with 14" here in Norfolk! So what are your thoughts this time for my area Blizz? All rain? NWS indicates some snow then a change over on Tues.
that's random. sunny in white plains, ny
Yeah, looks like you're barely missing out, Zotty.
LT too!
Welcome aboard! There is a great group of people here with a better sense of community than other boards.
Yep, you are correct. My temperature has been falling slowly all day after those snow showers moved through here this morning. Down to 20.7F.
I would guess for LSV to get hit the hardest we almost need a setup like you suggest where the storm hugs the coast and coastal areas will see temps close to 50F and heavy rain.
One question...what would make a storm to sit and spin off the coast? like the ones that would bomb off the NC coast and dump snow.
Welcome! Does your name imply that you are a Captain of a Sea Towing vessel?
Thanks! Yep, I think the great part about the blog is discovering these storm systems and tracking them for a while despite radical unhealthy mood swings, lol. But at least we can pinpoint storm threats even though details are uncertain.
Our best storms are ones that feature changeovers along I-95 with the heavy snow axis across the Blue Ridge Valley region. To get a storm to creep up along the coast requires a strong banana high to the north with intense upstream blocking. Interestingly enough we are lacking all these features and still many of the models are suggesting this be a long event 24-36 hours. I forgot to mention this in the blog.
Forecast for me is beginning to reflect your thinking...it was all snow yesterday and now rain has entered. Eventually we may lose most of that snow, haha:
Tuesday
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Not as cool. Near steady temperature around 30.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Breezy with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain in the evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Looks like rain here, and it will be what it is. I've decided to not get emotionally involved with this storm, but just to watch how it evolves. Learn a bit. :)
Welcome aboard, SeaTowCapt!
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD IS ON A
POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD
ADVERSELY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE
SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF
THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE. THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT IS
COUNTERED BY A WESTWARD TREND/SHIFT OF THE GEFS MEAN CYCLONE
TRACK...COMBINED WITH THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL AND UKMET. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ROCK SOLID IN
A STORM TRACK OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE THAT WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE EC TIMING
COMPARES VERY WELL TO THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE BUT IS SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE UKMET/GEM GLOBAL CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LOW CENTER NEAR THE VA TIDEWATER
AT F120 AND NEAR CAPE COD AT F144. PUTTING THE TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTIES ASIDE AT THIS RANGE...THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING IN
THE COMING DAYS AS IT HAS SOME OF THE CLASSIC ATTRIBUTES/ANOMALIES
THAT ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS. OVERALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
STORM SYSTEM...BUT OF COURSE THE DETAILS AND EXACT TRACK WILL
NEED TO BE RESOLVED. FOR NOW WILL MENTION 35-45 PCT HIGH CHC POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion -
If we are lacking those features, what makes this look like a big east coast storm. I read your blog, but I don't get if we don't have a ham bone and beans and heat how can we make bean soup? that is a long event. just off the top of your head what is the longest event we have had in the area? any lately?
I do not think so considering the amount of warm air from the southeasterly flow along within 75-100mi of the coast. I did some analysis and I cannot find a single major snowstorm along I-95 in the KU monograph that has a high pressure sliding to the east like we do. Now if for some reason the models are moving the high too quickly out, then things may trend colder. But for now, I do not see any evidence of that occuring.
I try to keep a quick memory of dates of major storms, but I do not have any recollection on timing. The models show the low becoming so strong/amplified that it becomes vertically stacked. This allows it to stall for a time period as it undergoes bombogenesis and almost creates its own cold air. But in reality I think that amplified of an approach to the forecast will not be the end result. I doubt it lasts as long as some guidance suggests and probably won't be as amplified either.
Lol, don't say that. The GGEM still shows a solution like that and considering the lack of blocking, it is possible this tracks even farther west.
Hampton Roads is a great boating area. I graduated from High School in Hampton, Va in 1983. Great memories of sailing and fishing the Hampton Roads area.
I read the blog and am totally confused -- due to my ignorance and impatience, not Blizz's excellent presentation nor the high caliber commentary. So let's see if I have this right. A storm is coming to the east coast on Tuesday and it will be a big one and it will move slowly. Lots of rain and or snow from NC/VA border north, with effects mostly ?east or west of 95. With the usual disclaimer that this is what it looks like now but its a long way off and ....
Ditto for Philadelphia, from what I can see. It's helpful, though, to see the general layout of what would be expected from current models.
Thanks for the answers Blizz. When you mentioned about lacking all the ingredients it kind of sets off an alarm
One day, he will be writing NWS analyses of major storm events. In the meantime, we should petition Jeff Masters to appoint him as an official Wunderground Meteorologist. Blizz is clearly one of the most gifted analysts on this entire site.
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