Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 20:16 GMT le 21 janvier 2011

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Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...

Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.

The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.

The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.

Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.

The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.

At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!

Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)



This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow

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Quoting originalLT:
Blizz, not to be a pest, but why, if any further East, would it be rain? Wouldn't the winds remain out of a NE componant?

Without that high, there is a continuation of a pure easterly flow. In fact the 2m 0C 12z ECMWF line is all the way well northwest of I-95. For areas within 100mi of the coast, they usually need a high pressure to the north to lock in the cold especially with a departing cold air mass such as this.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Blizz, not to be a pest, but why, if any further East, would it be rain? Wouldn't the winds remain out of a NE componant?
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
Quoting MoCoMd:


Yeah, but when Bob Ryan get's it wrong, he still claims he was right.


LOL, so true! And I still remember Bob crowing about his 1996 big snow prediction for years after.
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Quoting HeavySnow:
Bob Ryan likes snow, he just doesn't treat it like Topper. Topper unabashedly roots for snow. Bob usually just tells the truth which is often too painful to listen to.


Wasn't sure if Doug Hill or Bob was on last night, sometimes they switch off for 11PM. Bob has really downplayed any snow events so far this winter, so I've been thinking he doesn't like snow as much as I thought he did back when he was on the other station. Topper gets all wound up, I love it (and the Bread-O-Meter)! I do like Chuck Bell, I wish they had made him head met.
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Thanks Blizz. You are right MoCoMD
Member Since: 7 juillet 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
276. RkTec
We are in that time frame when things begin to look a little whacky. I believe the "players" are going to be in a better sampling environment in time for the RAOB data to be ingested into models beginning with the 12Z runs on Sunday. At least that is what I hear.
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Quoting HeavySnow:
Bob Ryan likes snow, he just doesn't treat it like Topper. Topper unabashedly roots for snow. Bob usually just tells the truth which is often too painful to listen to.


Yeah, but when Bob Ryan get's it wrong, he still claims he was right.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
The ECMWF is the perfect solution for those along I-95. In the end verbatum it probably would be wet snow. Any further east and it is definitely rain. Any farther east or west and I-95 will not do very well. I stand by my preliminary thoughts for now.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:
Wow, 12z ECMWF shifted pretty far east and is actually a bit close to the 12z GFS. I am very surprised. Very little QPF makes it to inland/western areas just like the whole winter season so far. I think this eastern shift was overdone by the ECMWF. I still like a track just east of the 0z ECMWF.


Nah that sounds about right.
Member Since: 28 août 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3602
Quoting Beachllama:


Missed the local 11PM forecasts last night, which one doesn't like snow? Just their first initial will clue me in. I know who #3 is, don't like his winter forecasting so far.
Bob Ryan likes snow, he just doesn't treat it like Topper. Topper unabashedly roots for snow. Bob usually just tells the truth which is often too painful to listen to.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
After this is all over, this could be another "case study". The models are having a tough time. When we see what actually happens, then maybe Blizz and other knowledgible people will be able to explain what really went down, and more importantly, why.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
Okay, I was out all morning and I just read the morning rollercoaster ride continuing. What about now for me Blizz?
Member Since: 7 juillet 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
Quoting NYCvort:

Same here! The pattern is too progressive for the now outlier GEM solution in my opinion. Something doesn't look right about it.

With limited blocking and a tight area of baroclinicity along the coast, I just do not see this tracking that far east as the GFS and now ECMWF. Even with the eastern ECMWF, coastal areas and I-95 suffer some warm surface temperatures. So even with an eastern track there are temperature issues, let alone a low closer to the coast. We will see though, I definitely lost a bit of confidence as the ECMWF came out.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting originalLT:
As Horace Greeley said(really John Babsone), "Go East young man, go East" ( Or was it go West)? I like East in this case!!

Same here! The pattern is too progressive for the now outlier GEM solution in my opinion. Something doesn't look right about it.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

New England, especially towards Boston is pummeled on this run.


Yes, East! GO EAST!!
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266. Finky
Blizz,

How is it looking down here in Gettysburg for a good snowfall? Thanks
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Quoting originalLT:
As Horace Greeley said(really John Babsone), "Go East young man, go East" ( Or was it go West? I like East in this case!!

New England, especially towards Boston is pummeled on this run.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
As Horace Greeley said(really John Babsone), "Go East young man, go East" ( Or was it go West)? I like East in this case!!
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
Quoting RkTec:
Euro sounds like it is real compact. Sharp gradient starting to show up again which seems to be the theme this season and last.

Yea, it looks nothing at all like any of the other ECMWF runs. Very strange indeed.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
262. RkTec
Euro sounds like it is real compact. Sharp gradient starting to show up again which seems to be the theme this season and last.
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Wow, 12z ECMWF shifted pretty far east and is actually a bit close to the 12z GFS. I am very surprised. Very little QPF makes it to inland/western areas just like the whole winter season so far. I think this eastern shift was overdone by the ECMWF. I still like a track just east of the 0z ECMWF.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
260. RkTec
I have no idea whats going to transpire with this one and I won't even take a guess until Sunday night. lol
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Quoting Blizzard92:
12z ECMWF coming out soon!


And it went a little east. Dang.
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12z ECMWF coming out soon!
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:

Excellent for now!


YEAH! Looking for a 2-3footer here. HAHA. I cant wait! By the way what timing are we looking at with this storm? Early Tues? Later Tues?
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Quoting Snowlover2010:
How do you think we are looking up here in State College Bliz?

Excellent for now!
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
How do you think we are looking up here in State College Bliz?
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Wild winter!

Hatteras, Mitchell Field
Lat: 35.23 Lon: -75.62 Elev: 10
Last Update on Jan 22, 11:51 am EST

Snow Fog

34 F
(1 C) Humidity: 85 %
Wind Speed: NE 14 G 30 MPH
Barometer: 29.84" (1010.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 30 F (-1 C)
Wind Chill: 25 F (-4 C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Group dynamics are so interesting! Now more than ever there are people on this blog from all over the Northeast and yet the atmosphere is still one of community. We seem to be able to cheer for each other even when we get left out. Well most of us, PP & Heavy, JK. There really seems to be an interest in learning how the different factors come together to create a storm. On other forums and blogs it's like a competition and people are so nasty to each other. I only go there because there are some really good meterologists who post play-by-plays as the models come in and I like comparing their take with my own. Congratulations, Blizz on drawing a civil, interesting group of weather lovers to your blog! Maybe we should all bombard Cornell with recommendations that they give Blizz some GREAT scholarships.
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Nice forecast. Seems in line with BMG. It'd be nice to use my elevation to add to the bomb. So I hope she rolls a bit west. Rain to Morris county NJ; Mix to Honesdale. Course it's just selfishness on my part. Lol


-2 this morning.
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Thanks for the computer model introduction, Blizz! I've printed it out and will struggle through. :)

I'm glad you had it already prepared, since I'll add to LT and pittsburghnurse's excellent suggestions that you also rest. The body heals itself when we give it what it needs.
Member Since: 18 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1237
Of course I'm in the QPF bullseye and I'm getting rain. #$*&$(*&$&*%#!
Member Since: 28 août 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3602
Hopefully the ECMWF does not go as far west as the GGEM or else we will be all traveling towards Pittsburghnurse, lol.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks for giving Blizz that advice, I defer to you Pittsburghnurse!


HAHA chicken soup always good medicine!
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Cloudless with some high cirrus just at the horizon. 19.4F in Scott Township, a local suburb. Loving the sunshine.

The weather is so different here west of the mountains. Even though many of us in the same state, it's like being in a totally different region. Blizz's blog has absorbed so many new names and locations East of the mountains. It's so good to get to know all of you.

Blizz, you think you can post the Lake Erie temps like you used to? When you're feeling better of course.
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well the 12z ECMWF is fastly approaching. wonder if it will hold suite?/
Member Since: 5 novembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Thanks for giving Blizz that advice, I defer to you Pittsburghnurse!
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
Hey, appreciate that Blizz. I'm busy most of the day today, but will check out tonight or tomorrow.

Thanks :)

BTW, Cirrus clouds moved in and temp dropped back down to 26.
Member Since: 20 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Quoting originalLT:
I'm sorry not feeling better, I recommend plenty of hot tea/with lemon&honey, and of course, CHICKEN SOUP! As my Grand Ma used to say "It can't hurt".. to have those two things.


If you can get some Chinese oolong tea, it has healing antioxidants and is easy on the tummy. If you've got the stomach thing that's going around, then its Bananas, rice, applesauce and toast as able to tolerate.
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12z GGEM...

Well inland with rain until you get well west into the Appalachians. I think this is too far west, but I certainly cannot rule it out. The one evidence is does argue for is that odds of snow along I-95 on eastward are dwindling.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting HeavySnow:
I saw 3 of 4 local tv mets just now. The oldest, probably most trusted said it looked like a weak storm for us, actually he never said for us. The second oldest, and big snow lover, said it was our best chance for a good snow all year. The newest, unknown said the latest US model(whatever that is) said it would phase up too late for us once again, but then said everything was still on the table. So, screw #1 and #3.

How spicy would you like your Chang sauce?
No your a towel.


Missed the local 11PM forecasts last night, which one doesn't like snow? Just their first initial will clue me in. I know who #3 is, don't like his winter forecasting so far.
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***For those looking for some more informatoin on the computer models often mentioned here, I posted an introduction on them in the blog above at the bottom. I typed this introduction up a few years ago to a blogger via wundermail. Hope it assists in some understanding!
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I'm sorry you are not feeling better Blizz, I recommend plenty of hot tea/with lemon&honey, and of course, CHICKEN SOUP! As my Grand Ma used to say "It can't hurt".. to have those two things.
Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
Quoting Blizzard92:

Thanks; do you know the exact date?
Quoting Blizzard92:

Thanks; do you know the exact date?


i didn't keep good records back then like a do now lol. my memory tells me it was toward spring though as it didn't last long.

now march 93 was the all-time heavy wet snow event.(of course right)
Member Since: 5 novembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting Blizzard92:

No, not really fealing much better, thanks for asking. Ah, I remember her too. She used to stop by here alot too. How cold did you get last night?


-3 this morning at 9am
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20.5 here in seaford,de. got down to 17.1 at 7am.Hope you feel better soon blizz:)
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Quoting Mason803:
back to the heavy wet snow question, i had a 10" heavy wet snow back in 1999. That's the last time a had a double digit wet snow. there were some smaller 6" or less events during the past couple of years however.

Thanks; do you know the exact date?
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
back to the heavy wet snow question, i had a 10" heavy wet snow back in 1999. That's the last time a had a double digit wet snow. there were some smaller 6" or less events during the past couple of years however.
Member Since: 5 novembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
R u feeling better Blizz? Love your solution snow map if that's what we're still holding on to. Light to moderate is good for me. I too am too old and out of shape to handle the epic stuff. My favorite is 3". But it does look like there will be some very happy people out in Central PA.

Glad P451 has checked in. We had someone drop off her own Western PA blog and vanish just about a year ago. She had a great daily picture blog. Worried about her. She never came back. DJinWesternPA. Miss her.

No, not really fealing much better, thanks for asking. Ah, I remember her too. She used to stop by here alot too. How cold did you get last night?
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
R u feeling better Blizz? Love your solution snow map if that's what we're still holding on to. Light to moderate is good for me. I too am too old and out of shape to handle the epic stuff. My favorite is 3". But it does look like there will be some very happy people out in Central PA.

Glad P451 has checked in. We had someone drop off her own Western PA blog and vanish just about a year ago. She had a great daily picture blog. Worried about her. She never came back. DJinWesternPA. Miss her.
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Quoting TheF1Man:
Blizz does it look like it would start as snow then move to rain and then back to snow or is it just battle of the titans. Also do you think springfield is far enough inland from the rain?

Hard to tell at this point. We have to get the track down first, but I think you have get pretty far inland 100mi+ to not worry about mixing.
Member Since: 14 décembre 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
69 ° F
Partiellement nuageux

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Température: 24.2 ° F
Point de rosée: 15.2 ° F
Humidité: 68%
Vent: Calme
Rafale de vent: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 EST le 18 janvier 2014

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