The Northeast Weather Blog...

So Blizz, this shows we are about normal with the 21 year average? If I'm reading it right?

04/26 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
Watertown NY: 42F (t)

04/26 RECORD LOW MINIMUM
Watertown NY: 26F (t)

04/25 RECORD LOW MINIMUM
Danville VA: 33F*

I know some people know all of this already, so it isnt a stab on intelligence in anyway ;) I figured Id throw it out there for additional perspective on what arctic sea ice extent actually represents. Its been a while since Ive seen extent that close to the overall mean as well.

While its a good thing that Sea Ice Extent has been close to the 1971-2000 mean the last couple months, sea ice extent essentially measures how far the most recent single-year ice extends out from the pole. Extent ice can have more rapid variations because it is easier to melt and freeze based on the most recent temperatures. Measuring extent ice is a little more like measuring recent mean temperatures over the last couple months at say Philly International. You can have a month of below average temperatures, followed by a couple months of above average, followed by a month of near average etc. The sea ice that is measured by extent melts in the summer and refreezes in winter. The peaks and valleys of sea ice extent will slingshot up and down more rapidly on both sides of the overall linear trend line.

Sea ice volume is a better measure of the condition of the Arctic as it depends on both ice thickness and extent. It takes into account multi-year ice that is more difficult to melt. Measuring sea ice volume is a little more like measuring the mean temperature over the last 5 years at Philly International. Sea ice volume includes the thickness of the ice from top to bottom which includes multi-year ice and includes the thickness to the edges of the ice extent. The peaks and valleys of sea ice volume will vary up and down less rapidly on both sides of the overall trend line.

Below: Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly and Trend (relative to the 1979-2011 period) from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) as of March 31st, 2012. This chart is updated on the last day of each month.

The solid blue line is the linear trend beginning on January 1st, 1979 through the most recent full month. The dark gray shading represents the area within 1 standard deviation from the linear trend, and the light gray shading represents the area within 2 standard deviations from the linear trend. The white area represents the area more than 3 standard deviations from the linear trend. It is important to note that the deviations are relative to the linear trend line. The overall mean line would extend horizontally along 0.



This is from the National Sea Ice Data Center (NSIDC). One key predictor for summer ice melt is the amount of old, thick ice in the Arctic at the end of the winter. Researchers look at ice age data as one indicator of Arctic sea ice thickness. Older ice that has survived multiple melt seasons tends to be thicker than newly formed ice. Ice age data this year show that the ice cover remains much thinner than it was in the past, with a high proportion of first-year ice, which is thin and vulnerable to summer melt. Ice older than 4 years used to make up about 25 percent of the winter sea ice cover, but now constitutes only 2 percent. First-year ice (0 to 1 years old) this March made up 75 percent of the total ice cover, the third highest at this time of year in the satellite record.

The purple shading represents the sea ice extent area, or the thin layer of ice that expands and retracts quickly with the seasons. The other shadings represent areas that currently make through the summer and early fall.

Below: Arctic Sea Ice Age


Previous sea ice models had predicted that summer "sea" ice would be gone by 2050. These previous models had not yet taken into account the most important feedback effects of declining sea ice volume.

The most recent arctic sea ice models predict that summer "sea" ice will be gone around 2015. This is because the new models take into account sea ice "volume." Actual measurements of sea ice volume that have been taken after the new model data had been released have shown that we are indeed on the pace for 2015. I am personally more conservative about the 2015 date and decide on more like 2018, with the hope of 2020, yet not denying the possibility of 2015. It's hard for me to grasp onto that jump from the previous 2050 to the new 2015. But we'll just have to wait and see ;)

Below: PIOMAS Yearly Minimum Arctic Ice Volume. This graph represents data output from the most recently updated arctic ice models.

The black line represents actual measurements since 1979. The red line represents the exponential trend since 1975. The maroon line represents the outer limits of the 95% confidence interval (anyone who has taken a statistics class will know what a 95% confidence interval is). In other words, the data shows that it is 95% confident that sea ice volume in the months of August and/or September will be 0 km ^3 somewhere between the years of 2013 and 2018, with the most likely year of occurrence being 2015.



I guess the important thing to take from all of this is that since sea ice extent has recently been near the 1979 to 2000 mean , it does not mean that the arctic has undergone some kind of miraculous recovery and restoration over the last 2 months. Neither am I saying that Blizz had necessarily posted the extent map for that reason. I just thought it was important to put it all into the proper context of what it means and represents.

Thanks MM for the "in-depth" explanation.

Quoting originalLT:
Thanks MM for the "in-depth" explanation.

Pun intended lol?

Yup!. But seriously, thanks!

Yep, thanks for the explanation MM! I always wanted to ask about it, but didn't want to start a fiery debate.

Looks a bit warmer this week, actually breaking into the 60s.

Blizz when do you finish up?

Hi everyone! Thanks for the sea ice measurements and explanation, MM and Blizz. I hadn't understood it all, and it is certainly something to keep an eye on.

In the meantime, our weather continues to be that of a lovely spring. I'm glad we didn't go right into summer this year. My husband informs me, though, that the early warmth followed by cold has ruined the morel season. Too bad it didn't get the tics.

04/30 RECORD LOW MINIMUMS
Massena NY: 24F*
Burlington VT: 27F (t)

04/29 RECORD LOW MINIMUMS
Rochester NY: 27F (t)
Buffalo NY: 28F*

04/28 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
Danville VA: 55F*

04/28 RECORD LOW MINIMUMS
Watertown NY: 21F*
Islip NY: 33F*
Atlantic City NJ: 28F*

Quoting Blizzard92:

Classes are done on Friday. And then my finals end early so I leave May 15.

I'm sure most of us will be wondering how your first year went, so we expect a full report on that! Just kidding...Goodluck with your finals!

Quoting Blizzard92:

Classes are done on Friday. And then my finals end early so I leave May 15.

Sweet! Good luck on finals Blizz. My classes are done this Friday also. My last final is next Wednesday! Can't wait. And then I start the MU-LIMC Internship 2 Monday's from now.
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I misunderstood the internship when I said something about it months ago. Here's a basic explanation if anyone's interested...

Huge areas of dead zones have been discovered in the Chesapeake Bay, and it is adversly affecting plantlife, wildlife, and the local economy due to decreased recreation opportunities and such (fishing, crabbing etc...). The Chesapeake is an extremely important rest stop for migrating birds. If the biodiversity of the Chesapeake fails, the whole ecosystem and everything connected to it fails.

The primary source of the creation of these dead zones is polluted storm water runoff within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The pollution sources are put into 2 classes; Agricultural and Urban.

Agricultural pollution includes things like pesticides, fertilizer, and livestock treading (and going to the bathroom) in the creeks & streams. Pesticides are an obvious one. There is a high volume of Nitrogen in fertilizer, which runs off into creeks & streams, creates excessive algal blooms, which then extract oxygen out of the water when it dies.

Urban storm water pollution is an obvious one that includes a whole slew of things.

All of this runoff gets concentrated into storm water drainage pipes which eventually lead into local creeks & streams through "outfalls" (the site where water exits the pipe into the stream), which then go into the Susquehanna River, which then goes into the Chesapeake.

The EPA has demanded that upstream municipalities identify exactly what and where this pollution is coming from, and develop a plan to mitigate the pollution down to safer levels as determined by The Clean Water Act. Freedom has been given to all municipalities to develop these plans on their own, and to spend money on the project as they see fit, as long as safe levels are met. If pollution levels are not met within a certain period of time, the EPA has authority to step in and get it done however the EPA sees fit, something that municipal leaders want to avoid.

The Lancaster Intermunicipal Committee (LIMC, includes several central Lancaster County municipalities) has very little idea where or how many outfalls are located in their area. The LIMC has partnered with Millersville University and has asked MU to perform an Outfall Reconaisance Inventory throughout its creeks, streams, and rivers (does not include the Susquehanna).

So this summer, 2 teams of 3 students (GIS (Geographic Information Systems) student, Maps & Analysis student, Biology student) will be walking the waters of Lancaster County with waiters & professional GPS units (along with other things), recording the location and type of each outfall, what the outfall is linked to, and what is coming out of each one. The biology students will take samples from the outfalls to examine in the Biology Lab. The GIS & Map students will be creating electronic GIS maps in the GIS Lab.

This is likely a 10-year project that is actually very serious. I've been to a couple LIMC quarterly meeting sessions with the municipal leaders. Obviously, some of them are not looking forward to the expenses of this important project. Their main priority is keeping taxes & expenses as low as possible within their municipalities, and frankly, some of them don't give a hoot about the Chesapeake and what it means not only to the economy and the survival of other species, but to the survival of the human species itself.

I can't wait to get out there in the field come May and I am looking forward to getting this project off the ground. I'll be doing a college thesis on it and it will look fantastic on my resume!

Here's a link to the LIMC Link

Here's a link to the facebook page of the MU-LIMC Outfall Mapping Project Link

Good luck with that project, MM it sounds really worth-while. Question, while scouting around, will you be going on any private property? If so that can be tricky if the land owners do not know what you are doing there. Don't want them coming after you with their "shot-guns" drawn!!

Good luck Moon. Keep your hair on. Usually there is a debate re: land ownership adjacent to the stream bed. Absent a law of access as some states give surveyors, the recourse is ask permission or canoe and hope it is not hunting season. This study seems a bit overdue without the problem downstream. Getting funds from the state or uncle is a long drawn out puzzle.

Bright note got 2.9 in from the 4/21 storm and 0.73 this am. Still leaves a deficit but this helps. Haven't started using the well for the lawn. It is very clumpy in the back 40 (feet that is) and need to smooth out the pocky ground by fill and seed or turn the whole mess over. Did that 35 years ago by hand and it was a bear then. Think fill and new seed win that one.

Good luck Blizz and MM with your finals. And sounds like an enjoyable internship MM. Probably, be a bit warm as well and I am sure that water will look so inviting at times. hahahaha

I was watching a show the other week and they were talking about how most glaciers are increasing in size. They said the only ones you hear about are the ones that are decreasing in size which is a minority. They mentioned the glacier that is always in the news near Chile or is it Argentina that keeps falling in the sea, and there is a glacier about 10 miles away that is increasing in size. The media doesn't mention that. I believe they said the glaciers in Antarctica are actually increasing as well.

a Link about the glaciers Link

Here are some April descriptive temperature statistics for Philadelphia for the 1872-2012 long-term period.

April has a normal distribution: (p-val: 0.767)

April 2012 mean: 55.55F
April 2012 departure from mean: +2.09F
April 2012 was 1.04F standard deviations from the mean

Number of years: 141
Standard Deviation: 2.79F (
Maximum: 59.43F (1994)
Quartile III: 54.72F
Mean: 52.64F
Median: 52.60F
Quartile I: 50.80F
Minimum: 42.4F (1874)
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I don't have many descriptive statistics for the 1981-2010 short-term period.

April 2012 mean: 55.55F
April short-term mean: 54.0F
April 2012 D from short-term M: +1.55F
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At Philadelphia, April marked the eighth consecutive month of above average temperatures, as well as the fourteenth out of the last fifteen. April was also the fourth consecutive month with below average precipitation.
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Quoting originalLT:
Good luck with that project, MM it sounds really worth-while. Question, while scouting around, will you be going on any private property? If so that can be tricky if the land owners do not know what you are doing there. Don't want them coming after you with their "shot-guns" drawn!!

Thanks. Hahaha, trust me, we've all asked that same question! The LIMC will be sending out letters to property owners describing what we will be doing before we get out there. We will also receive training regarding how to speak to the property owners if they come out to ask questions. It's important not to get too "activist," some people aren't gonna want to hear that. A few negative engagements and complaints are likely, but we will be very friendly and leave peacefully from that specific property until further notice if the owner wants us off.

I wonder what the Amish folks will think about it. We will be going right through their property, especially on the east side of Lancaster city where they are especially numerous.

Quoting goofyrider:
Good luck Moon. Keep your hair on. Usually there is a debate re: land ownership adjacent to the stream bed. Absent a law of access as some states give surveyors, the recourse is ask permission or canoe and hope it is not hunting season. This study seems a bit overdue without the problem downstream. Getting funds from the state or uncle is a long drawn out puzzle.

Thanks. I thought some people on here might think it's a cool study. As far as canoe, we will be able to walk in the waters of the majority of creeks & streams, save for say the Conestoga River (should really be called a creek) which can get too deep. We have also received CPR and emergency training if someone takes a dive lol.

RP: Thanks. It's gonna be hot out there come summer. Working hours are from 6am to 12 noon. We can't do the field work within 72 hours of 0.10" rain. Dr. Kelly will be consulting our meteorology department regarding that.

Time not spent in the field will be time spent in the labs.

We must be very careful and mindful of the thousands of non-credible websites that exist on the web, as any one of us can make a taken-out-of-context website. We must obtain our information from the expert peer-reviewed science websites, for peer-reviewed science is the golden standard.


NOAA Climate Services
Link

NASA
Link

NCDC
Link

Yale Project on Climate Change Communication
Link

US EPA
Link

NOAA Climate Research
Link

NCAR & UCAR
Link

World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
Link

USGCRP
Link

IPCC
Link

National Academy of Sciences
Link

World Meteorological Organization
Link

Quoting Blizzard92:
Thanks everyone! Getting ready for my first final... computer programming in fortran, python, and GrADS.

Warm and humid up here this afternoon with temperatures shooting up to near 70F! Crazy roller coaster temperature ride this spring.

Blizz, I can't imagine having finals in all the classes you have. How many is it again?

Whats the matter Blizz, you trying to "coast through" on your second semester up there? Haha, just kidding, 19.5 credits thats pretty heavy. Good luck with those finals and papers.

Pretty large shower and T.Storm complex moving into western Pa. from West VA and Ohio at this late hour, wonder if it will hold together overnight as it moves generally eastward?

Get good sleep and eat well, Blizz! :-)
Wouldn't want you to fall ill for finals.


Sorry I haven't been around much.

Last Friday we had two deaths in the family...one on my side of the family and one on my husband's side. What were the odds?

Neither was my husband's ill brother, Larry. They were my Uncle Tom in MA and my husband's brother-in-law Joe in FL. We are going to visit Larry tomorrow, then go on to Uncle Tom's wake and funeral.

It's a lot to take in. Take care, everyone. I'll pop by as I am able.

Quoting Blizzard92:

Well fortunately some of the classes had term papers instead of finals. Therefore I'll only have four finals. 19.5 credits this semester

19.5 credits is insane lol, especially for Cornell. Is that pretty much the standard amount of credits that students take there?

This one girl I talk with at MU has like 9 classes this semester. I could never survive that many at once.

I am in the midst of finals and papers too. I had to work overtime a couple of days this week so I have to get my stuff done. Friday I have my last final so I will be leaving early from work to study for that. I take night classes. Oops almost forgot to say working full time and taking multiple classes can stretch you thin.

double post sorry

New blog entry out from "The God Species." This entry discusses Boundary #1, "Biodiversity." Link

Lynas divides chapter three into five interesting, interrelated, sections titled "Biodiversity," "The Pleistocene Overkill," "The Sad Story of the Sea," "Biodiversity and the Earth System," and "The Price of Pandas."

I found this chapter to be fascinating and have learned a lot of interesting things I never knew before. Give it a read and drastically increase your knowledge on the most recent findings regarding biodiversity!

This blog will be updated on the first of each month over the next twelve months, with a new subject for each environmental issue. The order of these topics will be the following...

March 1st: Preface
April 1st: Introduction: The Ascent of Man
May 1st: Boundary 1: Biodiversity
June 1st: Boundary 2: Climate Change
July 1st: Boundary 3: Nitrogen
August 1st: Boundary 4: Land Use
September 1st: Boundary 5: Fresh Water
October 1st: Boundary 6: Toxics
November 1st: Boundary 7: Aerosols
December 1st: Boundary 8: Ocean Acidification
January 1st: Boundary 9: Ozone Layer
February 1st: Epilogue: Managing the Planet
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Here's the link: Link

Wow - lots of interesting conversation in the 2 days I've been offline! Good luck with your finals - Blizz and MM. I'm sure you'll both do fine. :)

And what an interesting project, MM! I'm looking forward to hearing all about it, given that you're allowed to share findings with the "public." Certainly you can share some of your experiences.

I'm enjoying the wet weather, and looking forward to some warmth coming up. Odd spring, but a beautiful one. The leaves are amazing.

This is awsome, check it out! This whale was caught in fishing nets (most likely from irresponsible fishermen?). This guy jumped in the water to identify the problem, and the people in the boat cut the net and freed it. Check out what the whale does after it's freed! Link

Quoting Blizzard92:
Thanks for the wishes all!


My load is pretty standard, but I know many people right around 21-23 credits particularly in the engineering school. There was an article in our school paper about a boy taking ~60 credits this semester. I cannot seem to find it right now, but I did find an article from another account from a few years ago... Link. Ugh, I could not do it, lol. Next semester I am only taking 16.5 credits with four classes. It is going to be quite difficult with mulitvariable Calc and physics.

hahaha, I just find that kind of a workoad insane! I guess some people have that special rare mix of memory capacity, intelligence, and drive. I'm sure I could take more than 12 credits at a time, but It would require me to give up any social life. I need to maintane some sort of social life to remain sane! While I am in a hurry to get schooling over with, I am also patient and not in that sort of a rush lol. Maybe some people can load up on credits like that and still have valuable free time to spare.

Quoting weathergeek5:
I am in the midst of finals and papers too. I had to work overtime a couple of days this week so I have to get my stuff done. Friday I have my last final so I will be leaving early from work to study for that. I take night classes. Oops almost forgot to say working full time and taking multiple classes can stretch you thin.

Good luck. Coming down the stretch!