Wednesday storm thoughts for 14-15th...
"Afternoon thoughts"
Good January afternoon. For Thursday things quiet down all in preparation for the next front that will come through this Friday. This will be a stronger front, that could pose some problems in terms of mix precipitation in the far north. The NAM model shows it really cold with mixing as far south as I80. But for now I like the GFS solution, with a little mixing in the extreme north. There will not be to many flooding issues as most of the snowpack is gone, though rainfall could be heavy. Possibly over 1inch can be expected. The mix of precipitation should not cause too many problems. Then things clear out completely by Friday night with much more seasonable air.
"Short Term"
Ok, this short term is devoted to all the weather events this weekend that will lead up to the 14-15th storm. For saturday it appears that temperatures will be getting back to normal with highs in the 30s statewide. The real colder air is going to move in for Saturday night and Sunday ahead of the real storm. Alot of ingredients are there for this storm.
1. High pressure to north of storm(in Canada).
2. Contrasting airmasses of real warmth and cold.
3. Strong pattern shift.
4. Above normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
5. Strong gulf flow.
6. No low pressure heading up west of Appalachians.
7. 992mb pressure possible, off of the coast of Cape Cod.
8. High pressure will slow movement of storm.
9. NAO-Neutral to negative.
10. Cold air with eastern trough will push the storm just far enough off the coast to affect many people with snow.
These are the top reasons I could come up with to support the storm. Sunday appears to be cloudy and cool with snow approaching southern PA by noon.
Current Radar...
"Long Term"
This long term is devoted now to the 14-15th storm. But real quick, for the long term after the storm. It appears it stays cold with more possible snowstorms. I see no warmup in sight after this one. Ok, now on to the storm. First off I want to start off by saying that even though the storm is getting closer, I still do not think any of us have a better idea than yesterday or the day before then on this storm. The GFS still shows a flat wave heading out to sea and some of the other models such as the EURO show a big coastal storm. I think that the GFS will gain a concensus soon. It is hard to say what is going to happen with this storm. I would be interested to hear everyone thoughts on this system. My thoughts are that it heads up the coast and areas west of I95 see snow. So for today I want to hear everybodies thoughts and tomorrow I will update fully on new updates on the potential storm.
"Subject to Change"
Current NAO...
Notice the negative trend.
"Just to throw out there"
I think we should throw out the recent 12z run of the GFS. I do not think this is the solution of the storm. All of my forecasts made today are based off of several models including the 6z GFS. This is a similar solution to what I think will happen.
"Regional Forecasts" (Wednesday Night)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Windy with clear skies.(WestnorthWest). Low 32.
2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Winds becoming calmer.(WestnorthWest). Low 31.
3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Windy.(WestnorthWest). Low 36.
4. Central- (State College)-
Clear skies. Low 30.
5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Partly cloudy. Low 28.
6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Partly cloudy. Low 29.
7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Mostly clear skies. Low 26.
January Outlook
Well already it is January 3rd and it seems like the holidays flew by. Anyway it is time to look at the monthly outlook. Overall it appears temperatures on average will be around .5-1degree below normal when the month comes to an end. Periods of arctic air and somewhat mild air will cause only a minor below average temperature. There will be though times of very warm conditions, especially from the 6-11th of the month. Then there will be cold times like the first few days in January and the last 2-3weeks in January. Precipitation should come out well above normal. We are in a very active weather pattern due to the La Nina especially. Storms seem very frequent throughout the month. Snowfall will probably be above normal across much of the state except the far southeast. About 1-4inches above normal looks likely. So overall it appears to be a relatively cold January with normal to above normal snowfall. I know this does not agree with other January outlooks by Accuweather or NOAA, but I still believe it will end up being overall cold. Those weather services seem to be overestimating the warm air from the La Nina. They predicted a warm December and it ended up being colder with alot of snow in some areas. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. So stay warm!!!
***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Reader Comments
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Blue - Mostly snow
Sky blue - Mix of rain and snow
Green - Rain
The 12z EURO cranks out a pretty good coastal storm with todays run.
Thankyou.
guess they dont like beliving the models.
Bonedog- Well thankyou, lol.
It seems to me personally that the blogs especially this one and sullivan's featured blog read into the models more then the local offices or at least your willing to speculate about outcomes.
The local offices in NY/NJ esp OKX and PHI always seem to downplay everything then say afterwards the system did something unexpected. Yet it did exactly what you and sullivan said it would.
Also every afternoon storm updates will be added here. Your welcome here to express also what you think will happen with the storm. More opinions help me to create a better forecast.
The 500 mb pattern looks pretty good on the ensembles at 87 hours. We need lots of digging at this level to produce a snowstorm. It also helps that the NAO and PNA are coming into favorable positions for a storm.
After this storm, I think there's a legitimate threat for a storm or maybe 2 storms between the 19th and 25th. A trough looks to be forming in the SW at day 8 on most models after an invasion of cold air.
The keys to this system are the clipper and its track, and the amount of digging at 500 mb.
You need a weak clipper system or no clipper at all, and/or a high pressure to your northwest. The low needs to build lots of energy in the SW then bomb as it travels along the Gulf Coast and up the Eastern Seaboard just east of the 40/70 lat./lon. line. The storm must happen at night for the majority of the precip type to be snow.
Click on the dates preceding the storm to see the patterns that occurred, and do this with any other storm back to 1979.
Link
120hr
132hr
144hr
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Now, will this scenario play itself out?
Too early to tell. The GFS still is out to lunch, but as I've been saying...The GFS almost ALWAYS loses the storm in the 108hr-156hr timeframe for reasons unknown.
Perhaps it has a poor resolution/data gaps, when the energy that spawns these systems is out over the north Pacific, or something...
looks like all the ingrediants are in place or will be. Just need the system to run the benchmark.
Still dont see why OKX and PHI are calling for 40% snow showers. Guess they are being overly cautious as usual. Even went so far as saying the system will be off to our east. No system has gone east this winter thus far. Time will tell.
Now we just need to wait for the DGEX, NOGAPS, and UKMET to show this. The 6z GFS has trended NW giving the big cities some snow.
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