Wednesday storm thoughts for 14-15th...
"Afternoon thoughts"
Good January afternoon. For Thursday things quiet down all in preparation for the next front that will come through this Friday. This will be a stronger front, that could pose some problems in terms of mix precipitation in the far north. The NAM model shows it really cold with mixing as far south as I80. But for now I like the GFS solution, with a little mixing in the extreme north. There will not be to many flooding issues as most of the snowpack is gone, though rainfall could be heavy. Possibly over 1inch can be expected. The mix of precipitation should not cause too many problems. Then things clear out completely by Friday night with much more seasonable air.
"Short Term"
Ok, this short term is devoted to all the weather events this weekend that will lead up to the 14-15th storm. For saturday it appears that temperatures will be getting back to normal with highs in the 30s statewide. The real colder air is going to move in for Saturday night and Sunday ahead of the real storm. Alot of ingredients are there for this storm.
1. High pressure to north of storm(in Canada).
2. Contrasting airmasses of real warmth and cold.
3. Strong pattern shift.
4. Above normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
5. Strong gulf flow.
6. No low pressure heading up west of Appalachians.
7. 992mb pressure possible, off of the coast of Cape Cod.
8. High pressure will slow movement of storm.
9. NAO-Neutral to negative.
10. Cold air with eastern trough will push the storm just far enough off the coast to affect many people with snow.
These are the top reasons I could come up with to support the storm. Sunday appears to be cloudy and cool with snow approaching southern PA by noon.
Current Radar...
"Long Term"
This long term is devoted now to the 14-15th storm. But real quick, for the long term after the storm. It appears it stays cold with more possible snowstorms. I see no warmup in sight after this one. Ok, now on to the storm. First off I want to start off by saying that even though the storm is getting closer, I still do not think any of us have a better idea than yesterday or the day before then on this storm. The GFS still shows a flat wave heading out to sea and some of the other models such as the EURO show a big coastal storm. I think that the GFS will gain a concensus soon. It is hard to say what is going to happen with this storm. I would be interested to hear everyone thoughts on this system. My thoughts are that it heads up the coast and areas west of I95 see snow. So for today I want to hear everybodies thoughts and tomorrow I will update fully on new updates on the potential storm.
"Subject to Change"
Current NAO...
Notice the negative trend.
"Just to throw out there"
I think we should throw out the recent 12z run of the GFS. I do not think this is the solution of the storm. All of my forecasts made today are based off of several models including the 6z GFS. This is a similar solution to what I think will happen.
"Regional Forecasts" (Wednesday Night)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Windy with clear skies.(WestnorthWest). Low 32.
2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Winds becoming calmer.(WestnorthWest). Low 31.
3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Windy.(WestnorthWest). Low 36.
4. Central- (State College)-
Clear skies. Low 30.
5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Partly cloudy. Low 28.
6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Partly cloudy. Low 29.
7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Mostly clear skies. Low 26.
January Outlook
Well already it is January 3rd and it seems like the holidays flew by. Anyway it is time to look at the monthly outlook. Overall it appears temperatures on average will be around .5-1degree below normal when the month comes to an end. Periods of arctic air and somewhat mild air will cause only a minor below average temperature. There will be though times of very warm conditions, especially from the 6-11th of the month. Then there will be cold times like the first few days in January and the last 2-3weeks in January. Precipitation should come out well above normal. We are in a very active weather pattern due to the La Nina especially. Storms seem very frequent throughout the month. Snowfall will probably be above normal across much of the state except the far southeast. About 1-4inches above normal looks likely. So overall it appears to be a relatively cold January with normal to above normal snowfall. I know this does not agree with other January outlooks by Accuweather or NOAA, but I still believe it will end up being overall cold. Those weather services seem to be overestimating the warm air from the La Nina. They predicted a warm December and it ended up being colder with alot of snow in some areas. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. So stay warm!!!
***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Reader Comments
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Signing off.
it pains me to say that... but until im proven wrong, it's the harsh reality of the past few winters..
(of course, this does not count for december 30th, 2007 when Harrisburg reported rain, and in Carlisle I ended up seeing all snow)
Look at the new 12z ECMWF!!
And personally I do not think we need to worry about rain here in Harrisburg. Either we are going to have snow or there will be no storm at all.
Updating blog soon.
For some reason the GFS just isn't resolving the pattern well...
From the HPC:
"ALREADY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EARLY DAY 3/SAT... MODEL
CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE 00 UTC GFS WITH THE ERN PAC SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARD THE PAC NW/WRN CANADA. VERIFICATION OF WELL
DEVELOPED ERN PAC SYSTEMS IN RECENT MONTHS STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SLOWER ECMWF CLUSTER IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT. THIS
LIKELY FLAW IN THE 00 UTC GFS LEADS TO A BROADER AND FASTER TROF
FCST TO TRACK EWD FROM THE PLAINS... "
But Sunday-Monday that is something we need to watch for something significant.
im hoping that we get snow, and not rain or a mix... snow, and not 1-2 inches, but i'll hold out hope again... it'll prolly be ice.
NAVY(NOGAPS)
CMC
EURO
Models that do not show coastal storm...
DGEX
GFS
I'll say it starts off as rain, and then changes to snow. You may have a period of sleet mixing in.
I'm not sure on accumulations.. heck, I'm not even totally sure on MY AREAS accumulations LOL
This will probably change by Friday when the models have a better handle on the Pacific ridge and the vortmax coming into the US.
Is it just me, or are there problems with the blogs tonight?
Do you think it is snow for me north of Harrisburg?
Yes the times seem to be screwed up on the blogs.
Read my blog for your forecast. I believe Harrisburg gets all snow.
we're still 4 days out... plenty of time for everything to change, let's hold up on the enthusiasm and/or deflation for about 2 days, eh? haha
think snow
Governor of District of Shahdad in mid-southern province of Kerman said snow today for the first time whitened the central desert of Loot.
The elderly of the villages have said they had never seen or heard about snow in those areas.
SUN NITE/MONDAY...00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
OF OTHER MED RANGE MODELS...KEEPING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVES UNPHASED. ALTHOUGH EAST COAST STORM APPEARS
UNLIKELY...WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SNOW SHWRS AS UPPER
LVL TROF SWINGS THRU SUN NITE AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHWRS
APPEAR POSSIBLE TUE/WED...MAINLY MTNS...AS NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU. NO ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPS
LIKELY TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.
they are a funny bunch I tell ya
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM HAVE SHIFTED EWD WITH THE SUN NGT
SYSTEM, THE OP GFS REMAINS THE SERN OUTLIER. THE SOUND OF THE GFS
(TRUCK) BACKING UP CAN BE HEARD IF WE WERE TO COMPARE LAST NGT/S 00Z
RUN WITH TNGT/S ALTHOUGH IT STILL DOES NOT HAVE PCPN REACHING OUR
AREA EMPHASIZING TUE/S CLOSED LOW EVENT INSTEAD. THE CAN GGEM/UKMET
AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST PCPN GETTING TO ALL
OR PART OF OUR CWA. THAT`S WHY WE CONT TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS
IN. MY SON KEEPS ON ASKING ME THAT GREAT PHILOSOPHICAL QUESTION THAT
HAS GONE ON THROUGH THE GENERATIONS: DAD WHEN IS IT GOING TO SNOW?
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF RUN WOULD HAVE ME ANSWER NEVER AGAIN, THIS MODEL
SUITE OFFERS A BIT MORE OPTIMISM ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE HAVING THIS
CONVERSATION IN THE POCONOS OR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
I stood awake just to watch that model come out before going to bed. Glad I made that decision...lol
Also my local weatherman for harrisburg says that it will be 46degrees with sunshine for monday. What are anybodys thoughts on this?
EAST COAST STORM OF 12 FEBRUARY 2006. IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE IS GOING TO BE ALONG THE COAST.
Finally the nws sees the potential storm, the February storm they mentioned produced up to 20inches of snow in parts of southern PA. Also pops are now at all snow and 50%for harrisburg.
This is good news for us snowlovers.
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