Bluestorm5's Blog

Watching 94L

Posted by: Bluestorm5, 15:42 GMT le 19 août 2012

I was going to post a entry on 94L yesterday, but I had to get off the computer earlier than expected. I had created a forecast for 94L yesterday with new graphic. Just remember that the forecast is NOT OFFICIAL and the only forecast you should listens to is National Hurricane Center.

I expects 94L to take a sweet time developing into a tropical storm so I do not expect 94L to be named for another 36-48 hours from now. Another reason for this is that 94L is currently struggling with dry air, but as I'm posting this, it seems to getting his act together.

As 94L comes closer toward Puerto Rico, I expects 94L to evolves into a mature tropical storm and makes a landfall in NE Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, but no stronger. However, it is too early to be sure of 94L landfalling Puerto Rico as that is 5 days away. The shaded part of the cone in my forecast meant to point out that ANYTHING can happens, such as 94L going into area where Hurricane Ernesto of 2012 went or recurving completely out to the sea.

Right now, it is a huge question mark if this storm is a threat to USA or not, but the setup is typical of East Coast hurricanes so I think the long range forecast is for it to hit somewhere between Miami, Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, although it's WAYYY too early to be sure.

The bottom line? 94L is a good threat to develops into a strong tropical cyclone and a possible future threat to USA and other lands before it. People in Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and other islands surrounding it SHOULD be preparing for this threat.

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1. WxGeekVA 15:46 GMT le 19 août 2012
Good analysis Blue. I agree a lot with what your thoughts are with the dry air slowing it down. Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3316

2. GeorgiaStormz 15:47 GMT le 19 août 2012
cool Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7162

3. Bluestorm5 15:50 GMT le 19 août 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: Good analysis Blue. I agree a lot with what your thoughts are with the dry air slowing it down. Yeah, I think it's going to slow down 94L some. It's noted that it's moving pretty fast. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3593

4. MAweatherboy1 15:55 GMT le 19 août 2012
Thanks Blue... Very reasonable forecast I think. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6362

6. Bluestorm5 15:58 GMT le 19 août 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Thanks Blue... Very reasonable forecast I think. Yeah, I'm not like Levi haha. Maybe in 3 years when I'm in college :) Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3593

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