Dry No More

By: Bogon , 19:35 GMT le 23 septembre 2011

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Another 1.2 inches of rain fell last night and this morning. Precipitation has ended for now, but the big upper level low, which is driving our weather pattern, just keeps on spinning. The latest word says the low will hang around until the middle of next week. We ought to be thoroughly soggy by then.

Here's the state drought monitor from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. This map is updated weekly on Tuesday, and the new maps are published on Thursday. Here you can see the Dry Slot painted in Moderate tan. There is no drought in eastern North Carolina because of Irene. Western North Carolina got doused by Lee. In between we've been hurting. 'S okay now, though. Next week's version of this map should be a lot less interesting.



Today marks the official (astronomical) beginning of autumn. The sun is going south for the winter. From now until March nights in the northern hemisphere will be longer than the days. In the southern hemisphere it's springtime. Folks living near the equator probably don't care, except to the extent that seasonal motion of the intertropical convergence zone affects their rainfall.

We're past the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Still, it will be another six weeks or so until the tropics begin to settle down. I'm keeping some of the graphics from my last blog, so we can continue to keep an eye on tropical storms.

Western Atlantic Imagery from NOAA Satellite and Information Service



Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS - Total Precipitable Water, 72 hour animation



The MJO is showing signs of movement again. In a couple of weeks we can anticipate returning support for convection in the Caribbean.

IR/200 hectoPascals Velocity Potential Anomalies

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50. Bogon
08:17 GMT le 26 octobre 2011
Hey, Ylee. Home again, and I finally got some pictures uploaded. A new blog should be coming soon.

Rina will be bad news for Cozumel and Cancun in Quintana Roo. Between interaction with the landmass of Yucatán and increasing wind shear as she moves northward, she'll have a hard time keeping her act together after that. Nevertheless, south Florida should be on the lookout for Rina remnants in a couple of days.

There's another tropical wave behind Rina. Tonight's European model shows that wave feeding into a major east coast storm next week.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
49. Ylee
16:18 GMT le 25 octobre 2011
I guess Rina fooled some folks. Any thoughts on what it'll do, and where it'll go?
Member Since: 3 février 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16066
48. Bogon
16:29 GMT le 23 octobre 2011
At noon today skies are flawless blue over Mom's house in western North Carolina. The air feels different — a little warmer, gentler, more humid. I feel the urge to grab my camera and go for a walk. When I get home tomorrow I'll post some pictures.

It's about time for a new blog. The information in my header is old news. The MJO has come and gone. The tropical season is winding down. The drought monitor still looks relevant, but that's because of the weekly update schedule. We've had significant rain since last Tuesday, the cutoff date indicated on the map.

I keep a list of possible blog topics. I need to pick one, dust it off, turn it over in my mind and start typing. I'll probably be mulling that over as I walk. I can stretch my legs, maybe snap a few photos, and it's a good time to clear one's mind and tackle a problem.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
47. Bogon
17:26 GMT le 22 octobre 2011
Skye - I'm visiting the mountains for a few days. When I left Burlington the trees were still mostly green. Along I-26 from Asheville to Mars Hill autumn leaf color is near its peak. Here, ten miles farther north on the other side of Buckner Gap, the leaves are fading already. Recent rain and wind knocked a lot of them down. Morning lows are dipping below freezing. My mom doesn't think her tomato plants have been killed yet, but they surely can't last much longer.

Hold on, Shore, I'm not ready for winter yet. I will get snow as well as the grim gray and brown. Right now the weather is very nice, and I'm in no hurry to end it.

I don't consider your complaints about drought in Texas to be whining. Texans have a legitimate beef. I hope the weather gods relent and send you rain this winter and spring.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
46. shoreacres
13:18 GMT le 22 octobre 2011
Seasonal music? I'm waiting for the day when this is timely!



I'll probably not get the snow shown in the vid, but gloomy, dank and brown is always a possibility. I do love the song. It's one that puts me right back into a specific time and place - and I can taste that vodka and lime.

We've got beautiful, now, and it's forecast to stay this way until midweek, when there's a "maybe-possibly-don't-hold-your-breath" chance of rain. Oh,my - that would be nice. It was quite something to see how much new growth popped up in Texas after that rain that came during my trip. If we could just get occasional half-inches now, it would be so wonderful. An inch would be better.

I'll stop whining now and wish you a good weekend!
Member Since: 4 octobre 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
45. Skyepony (Mod)
23:57 GMT le 21 octobre 2011
It's only 10 degrees warmer here than Mills River.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38761
44. Bogon
13:47 GMT le 20 octobre 2011
The sun rose bright this morning. The temperature is in the forties, and a southwest wind is jiggling leaves outside my window. The sunshine and the temperature range should stay relatively constant over the next few days. WU's weather models utter no discouraging words for the next week or more.

GFS drops a hint for the ten-day time period, when we may look for the next storm and our first taste of cold weather. By then it will be turning November, and a cold shot would be timely.

The chances for tropical weather are declining. The intertropical convergence zone is settling southward, so that tropical waves impact the coast of South America rather than entering the Caribbean Sea. At roughly the same time that the 5400 thickness line first brushes the Dry Slot, the GFS depicts a blob besieging Honduras (edit: originally said Guatemala. Got my countries mixed up. Should have checked a map, one with labels.). Ten days is a lot of lead time, though. The model may change its mind half a dozen times between now and then.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
43. Bogon
15:31 GMT le 19 octobre 2011
Another time, another season...

Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
42. Bogon
15:07 GMT le 19 octobre 2011
There was just a smidgeon under 2" (5 cm) of rain in the gauge this morning, and light rain is still falling.

A little cool outside as well. I was wearing shorts, which worked fine yesterday (and for about the last six months). When I came back inside, I turned off the air conditioning. According to the local forecast our temperature will rise into the low seventies today, which is warmer than we will see at any time throughout the remainder of the week.

So, will we see 80's again? All it takes is a warm spell, which can happen even in January. But local climatology is switching inexorably into wintertime mode. Average highs are dipping below room temperature. Average lows are sinking into the forties.

Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
41. Bogon
14:04 GMT le 18 octobre 2011
Ahoy, Shore! Nice to see you safely home again, even though you found Dixie sulking under the bed. Our cats pretend not to recognize me after I have been gone for a few days. I go about my business as usual, and after a while the cats begin to realize that there's something familiar about this guy.

I don't believe anyone ever ate a doughnut because he though it was sensible. Doughnuts clamor to be eaten. Somebody's gotta do it! :o)

Still awaiting weather here. Our forecast promises a one-two punch, starting with invest 95L and ending with your cold front. There is potential for heavy rain depending on the track of the low. Today the predicted high is in the low 80's, but by the end of the week temperatures may drop into the 30's. It's time to bring the plants in.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
40. Bogon
13:39 GMT le 18 octobre 2011
Good morning, sfinds.

You have put your finger on a major consideration when it comes to cooking. When I was in school, I was single. There was nobody else depending on me for meals.

In a family, especially if there are children, somebody has to do the cooking. It behooves the designated cook to suck it up and try to do a good job, regardless of whether he finds it enjoyable. It would surely help if he could find something of interest in the task. Otherwise he'll have to rely on a sense of duty and let customer satisfaction be his reward.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
39. shoreacres
13:34 GMT le 18 octobre 2011
Morning, Bogon,

Just a quick hello from the returning traveler. One of the things I love about traveling is that quite often, everything that was old is made new again - this trip, it was corn fields, the harvesting process, apple pie, hot cider, the Mississippi... Just a wonderful trip.

Looks like sfinds and I are sharing weather this a.m. - the front's through here, too, and it's going to be a windy day on the docks. The clouds are clearing already, so it should be pleasant.

I tend toward souvenirs like black walnuts, unusual squash, apples, peaches and recipes, so it's going to be cooking time around here. It's just a danged good thing I never found (a) more apple cider doughnuts or (b) a recipe for apple cider doughnuts. Those things were new to me, and I could indulge beyond what good sense might dictate!
Member Since: 4 octobre 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
38. sfinds
12:22 GMT le 18 octobre 2011
Good Morning Bogon,

The front just arrived. It is dry, cool and windy. Best make a quick run up to the barn and get that over with.

I like to eat and cook. The cooking part, though, only if I don't have to. Had enough getting meals ready through the years in the have to mode.
Member Since: 7 août 2003 Posts: 33 Comments: 224
37. Bogon
03:21 GMT le 18 octobre 2011
Skye, that sounds like something you would do. :o)

While I have certainly tasted a wild onion, I don't recall ever using one for cooking. If I did, it was a one-of-a-kind experiment. Of course, I'm an indifferent cook. I like to eat, but I don't enjoy the process of cooking. To me cooking is a means to an end. It's the end that interests me.

When I was in school I always ate at the cafeteria. Lots of people complained about cafeteria food, but I seldom had a problem finding something I could chow down on. I bought a meal plan at the beginning of the semester. To me it was a cost effective solution. It's doubtful that I could have eaten as well by preparing my own food. If I accounted for the extra time required to find and fix the ingredients, then clean up the mess afterwards, there's no way I could have eaten as cheaply.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
36. Skyepony (Mod)
23:36 GMT le 17 octobre 2011
I remember being a poor college student harvesting wild onion & garlic from my lawn for soup.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38761
35. Bogon
19:22 GMT le 17 octobre 2011
Hi, Pros. Actually I'm having a beer after mowing the lawn. The grass has almost stopped growing, but the wild onions are very much in season. In spring and fall mowing is a fragrant herbal experience, much like my wife tries to create each time she soaks in the tub.

That's a cute kitten, creating its own new world. Each of us is born into a new world. Then we get old, and we learn that it's really an old, old world. Most of the things that a person may do have been done before. The outcome of most actions we may take is known and recorded somewhere. Yet some of us retain the capacity to think and do new things.

So, what's new with you?
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
34. Proserpina
18:45 GMT le 17 octobre 2011
Each friend represents a world in us, a world possibly not born until they arrive, and it is only by this meeting that a new world is born.
— Anais Nin

It has been a while since Ive come by to leave a greeting, so here I am saying hello. Have a wonderful rest of the day. Pros
Hello Pictures, Comments, Images, Graphics
Hello Pictures Comments - Photobucket
Member Since: 6 mai 2008 Posts: 174 Comments: 18296
33. Bogon
14:46 GMT le 16 octobre 2011
More sunny days. No complaints.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
32. Bogon
19:00 GMT le 13 octobre 2011
A little rain fell this morning as the low pressure center from Florida finally passed to the east. Then the sun came out. Now it's clouding up again. Looks like it will rain some more. Later tonight a cold front should clear the area.

There's a big blob in the northwest Caribbean Sea this afternoon. Don't know if anything will come of it, but it sure looks interesting. Low pressure all around.

Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
31. Skyepony (Mod)
03:34 GMT le 13 octobre 2011
Hope you get some rain on the front. I think it's coming through down here mostly dry.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38761
30. Bogon
18:52 GMT le 12 octobre 2011
There was indeed another wave of rain overnight. Rainy weather is good for sleeping. I slept long and well, but I think I heard thunder sometime during the night. At lunchtime today my rain gauge held six tenths of an inch. That's more like it.

Rain has stopped, but skies remain cloudy. MIMIC shows that the tongue of tropical moisture, which was hooking into the storm front, has now disconnected. It appears to be licking straight northward toward New England.

This was a complex and (for me, anyhow) confusing weather system. Intellicast's mixed surface analysis map still shows a low in south Georgia, and the northward streaming tropical air is depicted as a warm front along the southeast coast. The original wave of rain has reached New York.

The system that brought rain to Texas has gone to Canada. There is another front right behind it, which is in position to take over where the first one left off. That front may trigger more rain tomorrow, but it should bring dryer air and clearing by Friday.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
29. Bogon
22:06 GMT le 11 octobre 2011
Hey, Skye. The low center of the storm seems to be headed toward the mountains. That and orographic lifting ought to guarantee good rain for Mills River.

Weather here continues damp and dreary. We've gotten a little bit of rain, which is better than none at all. This morning the NAM model suggested we might get a second wave as the center went by, but so far radar does not bear that out. The weather chart shows the low still lurking over the Florida panhandle. There may be more to come.

I'm not sure what was going on with the CPC's MJO page. Looks like it's working fine now.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
28. Skyepony (Mod)
17:15 GMT le 11 octobre 2011
Saw some MJO models hang up on the 6th but most updated daily through that here..
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38761
27. Skyepony (Mod)
17:12 GMT le 11 octobre 2011
.43" for my place up there so far. The leaves look great on webcam..it's about 1/3 of the way over from the left. You can only see the top when the weather is good.

Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38761
26. Bogon
16:39 GMT le 11 octobre 2011
All hype and no action: very light very desultory rain this morning. After about eight hours of it, I found a tenth of an inch of water in the rain gauge. Unless a more energetic embedded blob blows across the Dry Slot, this nameless quasitropical thingie from Florida is going to be massively underwhelming. Right now it looks as if the rain is about to end.

Next up is a cold front, the one that finally broke the drought across Texas. I suppose I'll have to pin my hopes on that.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
25. Bogon
04:48 GMT le 11 octobre 2011
In comment 15 I ranted about the MJO charts at the Climate Prediction Center. Part of the problem seems to be that the phase charts have been stuck on Oct. 2nd for the last week. Here's an up to date chart.

Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
24. Bogon
20:59 GMT le 10 octobre 2011
Hey, Briar. I stopped by your place earlier today, only to find out that you have been so busy that you disabled comments on your blog. I hope things are going well with the many chores on your list. A rainy day may be just what the doctor ordered. In your case you may not need the moisture, but it sounds as if you can use a break.

We need the rain here. I have mostly stopped watering, because the heat stress has eased, but we're dry. Expecting rain tonight. I planted a gardenia and a tea olive (osmanthus) this weekend. I'm hoping for good rain to help them settle in.

My ISP is Time-Warner cable. I received an advisory this month that our connection speed has increased, I assume because of infrastructure improvements on their part. So far I have not tested the claim. Our connection is nothing super, but it's fast enough that delay is usually for DNS lookup or on the server end.

Of course, I live in town. My parents' house in rural western North Carolina is a different story. Electricity in the forties sounds about right. (I wasn't born yet.) They pump their water from a spring. There's no cable, and they only recently (5 years or less) got DSL. There is no cell phone reception there.

      *      *      *

Dogwood is starting to turn red. It's getting Halloweeny, too. Pumpkins perch on porches. Spiders dangle in the corners, and multicolored mushrooms peek from under bushes. The coming rain will surely make the mushrooms burgeon, unless it gets cold afterward. The days have continued warm up until now. The local forecast shows low temperatures holding in the fifties over the next few days.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
23. BriarCraft
18:13 GMT le 10 octobre 2011
It's a DIMBY sort of day here (Drizzling In My Back Yard), so I'm catching up on some overdue visits today. Glad to see your back yard has been getting rehydrated and that you had a good week at the coast.

With earlier discussions about internet and bandwidth, I decided to pop over to ToledoTel's speed test to find out my connection was clocked at 644 kpbs download and 210 kpbs upload -- just a-screamin' today. Some days it slows down a bit. Mighty Toledo Telephone serves about 1000 households and has 5 employees. They did get an $18m loan from USDA to put fiber in the ground and they're taking the system down tomorrow night to install a new router, so things are looking up.

I'm a bit behind Ylee in some respects and ahead in others, as we're still on well water and have a septic tank, but broadband (though certainly not high speed) has been here since 2000.
Member Since: 21 juin 2004 Posts: 84 Comments: 4207
22. Bogon
23:12 GMT le 09 octobre 2011
The anticipated subtropical flareup is now in place over Florida. It should bring rain here in about two days. We can use it, because it has been dry here since the big rain mentioned in the header.

Good news for folks farther north: all the models have backed off the intensification of the storm. It will not wind up like a nor'easter. It will drag a long fetch of tropical moisture behind it, and it will tangle with a front moving east across the Great Lakes and Canada. It will likely produce lots of rain where it is not needed, but today's model scenario is not as bad as the initial predictions.

Also gone from the long range models is the suggestion of a second tropical system entering the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean. The GFS depicts a storm moving into the Atlantic, but that's more than a week away, an interval over which the model is notoriously unreliable.

Add: Doc Masters calls the storm in Florida 'extratropical'. I mention that in case the difference in prefix is important to you. Normally I try to get the language right. Subtropical, extratropical, pseudotropical, hemisemidemitropical — right now I can't seem to get very excited over fine declensions in tropicalitude. Proliferation of these terms strikes me as more confusing than helpful.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
21. Bogon
14:47 GMT le 08 octobre 2011
A few years ago I tried to explain to my dad why the home computer was a world-changing gadget. He thought of it as office equipment, a better typewriter. I told him it was a more generalized capability, like telegraph or telephone or television, but really all of the above rolled into one. I'm not sure he ever got it, possibly because of his age or possibly because I did a poor job of explaining.

These days it's all about the internet. People do internet on their cell phones. These small hand-held devices can't do much number crunching, but they can show you a web page. Lots of web sites are packaging their content with mobile devices in mind.

A UN report has declared that all people have the right to internet access. That's pretty fast work for an emergent technology. Where will it take us?

I don't know, but hang on for the ride!
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
20. Ylee
01:56 GMT le 08 octobre 2011
We didn't get electricity until the late 40s, municipal water until the late 90s, so getting broadband at home in 2009, only 15 years after commercial internet was first offered around here, is doing pretty good, to me.

Things are changing rapidly. Within a few years broadband will be offered virtually everywhere, IMO.
Member Since: 3 février 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16066
19. Bogon
13:56 GMT le 07 octobre 2011
Ylee, I hope you haven't grown impatient waiting for a reply. It's not every day that I can come up with something to say. And, believe it or not, once in a while I decide to let one of my visitors have the last word. :o)

Philippe somehow managed to gather himself together and carry on. Bloody perseverance availed him not at all, because at this point he has merged into a temperate frontal zone and is being swept away eastward. North America is beyond his reach. If he represents a threat to anyone, it will be folks in the Azores or Europe.

The next area that bears watching for tropical storm development is Cuba. My favorite weather models agree that a blob will move north toward Florida within the next few days. They still disagree on the details. ECMWF steers the low center into the Gulf of Mexico, while GFS hugs the east coast. NAM splits the difference and tracks right up the peninsula. After that the results look about the same. Georgia and the Carolinas can look forward to a good dousing. Farther north, where torrential rain will be less welcome, the storm will deepen into a nor'easter.

Have I mentioned how much I like MIMIC? For keeping an eye on the tropics it's hard to beat. It's like NOAA's water vapor imagery, only in color. There's a nifty global map here. This imagery extends to higher latitude than the Atlantic view posted above, and it covers 360° of longitude. One caveat: the web site itself is pretty minimal, but the payload is a large animated GIF file that may take a while to download, depending on your bandwidth. The page automatically updates every time a new frame is added to the animation. I haven't figured out exactly how often that is, but it's on the order of a few minutes. If, like me, you become fascinated watching the swirlies, you'll end up having to download the GIF again.

Let me know if that represents a problem for you. The internet has been around for a generation now, and I doubt there are many folks left out there who connect to it via dialup modem. If you have a slow connection, and if it's not by choice, you ought to call your Congressman. Don't call the phone company, because they don't care. They don't have to. Your Congressman may not care either, but that's a problem of a different kind.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
18. Ylee
18:07 GMT le 05 octobre 2011
Nah, too much shear to make it down here, but it could alter a snowflake or two in Omsk..... :)
Member Since: 3 février 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16066
17. Bogon
11:41 GMT le 05 octobre 2011
Yep, the whole world is connected. If a butterfly flaps its wings in Newfoundland, will a hurricane come to me?
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
16. Ylee
21:12 GMT le 04 octobre 2011
Newfoundland, where old hurricanes go to die, before their ghosts blow away and lash the British Isles......
Member Since: 3 février 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16066
15. Bogon
13:08 GMT le 04 octobre 2011
Ophelia, where have you gone? She has wandered off the map. Like several storms this year, she went by way of Newfoundland. What a strange lonely island, where old hurricanes go to die.

Phillipe looks fit to fizzle in mid-ocean. I doubt anyone will miss him. I went to YouTube to find a song for Philippe, but no joy. Granted, the Band's great song Ophelia would be a hard act to follow, but the search engine found nothing. No one has ever seen fit to honor 'Philippe' with a song. The closest thing was video of Philippe Cousteau diving through clouds of emulsified oil in the Gulf of Mexico last year. Not exactly what I had in mind. It may have been a perfect storm, but you can't tap your foot to it.

The Cape Verde wave train has detoured onto a siding. Under the circumstances our best chance for tropical storm development appears to be along a stalled front southeast of Florida. An upper level low that has lingered over the eastern United States for the last week is finally moving offshore. High pressure will move in behind it. Circulation around the high will make conditions more favorable for something to spin up in the Caribbean.

There are signs that the MJO may lend support as well. The GFS ensemble phase chart predicts that the MJO will be moving into the western hemisphere. Traces of upward motion are showing up in the eastern Pacific now.

Not that I lend a lot of credence to the GFS ensemble chart. Based on my own observations I would say that it does a lousy job predicting the MJO's short term activity. In fact, all the MJO forecasts at NCEP pretty much suck. There are over a dozen different maps and graphs and charts there, which purport to predict the MJO. Without exception they are hard to read, and you would likely get better accuracy by throwing darts at a spinning globe.

There, I feel better now.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
14. Bogon
21:36 GMT le 02 octobre 2011
Hi, sfinds. Thanks for taking the time to say howdy.

It was a most excellent week-long vacation, despite the rainy weather and despite the fact that Wife and I came down with snorts and sneezes about halfway through. We had a pretty good idea what to expect; we rented the same place a couple of years ago in May. The picture I'm using for an avatar was taken there with beach sand for background. I thought about asking Wife to snap a new version, so you could see the older slightly worse-for-wear Bogon.

Thought, but did not act. For the time being we'll have to make do with the old (or newer, depending on how you look at it) me.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
13. sfinds
18:34 GMT le 02 octobre 2011
Hello Bogon,

No thoughts of Turn Around and Run, back to the sea and sun?
A trop rock song that is hard for me to get out of my mind. Kelly Mcguire does it and he is from somewhere in Shore's neck of the woods.

Anyway, always good to get home and nice that the furry ones were happy to see you and that it was a neat getaway.
Member Since: 7 août 2003 Posts: 33 Comments: 224
12. Bogon
18:00 GMT le 02 octobre 2011
Thanks, Shore. In most ways it's good to be home. For instance, here I don't worry about being swept away by a tidal wave.

Not that I spent the last week huddled in abject terror. It's just that the presence of a giant body of water right in front of the house was hard to ignore. It roared and pulsed and waved constantly. I am aware that various phenomena are capable of making that water slosh. From our location it would have taken at least two hours' warning to pack up our stuff and retreat across the bridge to higher ground. That's assuming no traffic jam. If everybody on the island tried to evacuate at the same time, they might all die with their engines idling.

Maybe I've been watching too many disaster flicks. Lots of people live along that beach (though most of the permanent residents live farther back from the tide line) without undue anxiety. I don't know whether that's because they have computed the odds and are satisfied that the probabilities are low, or whether they just live day to day without thinking too much about their restless neighbor, the Atlantic Ocean.

It's cooler here as well. For the last few weeks I've been marking time on my Wunderblog, while most of my energy and attention focused elsewhere. Time marked and time passed, and lo, it's a new world! Suddenly we have a new season and a new month with coolth and rain (snow flurries in the high northern mountains) that were almost unimaginable before Labor Day.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
11. shoreacres
14:14 GMT le 02 octobre 2011
Morning, Bogon,

I just was thinking, I wonder if B is back home yet? And here you are. Glad to know the cats are happy to see you. I'm not sure what to expect from Dixie after my upcoming trip. She's never been left for ten days - that could seem an eternity for her. Or not. She usually is pretty mad for a day once I get back. This time, she may not let me in.

Cool and nice here this morning, and we've a cooler week ahead - mid 80s. No rain yet to speak of. We got .12 last week. Hoorah.

Truth to tell, if I were you I think most of me would still be at the beach. Hope it was a good getaway, but it's nice to see you back!
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10. Bogon
03:06 GMT le 02 octobre 2011
Home again. The cats were glad to see us.

I think part of me is still at the beach watching the waves come in.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
9. Bogon
13:29 GMT le 29 septembre 2011
Good morning, Ylee. Thanks for asking.

We have a couple of days remaining in our beach getaway. The first part of the week was a washout weather-wise. Mostly cloudy and rainy, though the air and water are warm. If you're going swimming, you can only get so wet, so rain is not necessarily a deterrent. Lightning is a different story.

Last night we watched lightning flashing in distant storm clouds here and there around the compass. I'm not used to the unobstructed horizon. It's hard to guess how far away the storms really were. Too far to hear thunder over the surf.

Yesterday was our first mostly sunny day. The sky is cloudy again this morning, but the storm track has shifted east and offshore. If we get rain today, it will be an isolated shower, not an all-day tropical invest.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
8. Ylee
01:59 GMT le 29 septembre 2011
Are you guys still on vacation? If so, I hope you are having great weather!
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7. Bogon
14:28 GMT le 25 septembre 2011
Shore, Wife and I are at the beach this week. No sooner did we arrive than a new invest popped up in the neighborhood. I'm worried that we might get a little too much rain.

I recall Texas' second season as an annual event. We get that here, too, to some extent. Looking out the window, I see a palm tree with a lot of brown fronds. This time of year that's probably sun damage. All this rain should help. It should be a couple of months yet before that palm has to worry about frost damage (if then).

As for MIMIC, it seems the Blue Meanies are winning. For a while it looked like the forces of Orange Precipitable Water (OPW) had Blue forces on the run, but now Blue is making a comeback.

Ylee - yes, I think Invest 91 might put a damper on the beach action. Wife and I would be perfectly happy to snuggle up for a few cloudy days, but I don't want to evacuate from our vacation.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
6. Ylee
17:13 GMT le 24 septembre 2011
Hi, Bogon, do you think that invest 91 will have an impact on your area? Kinda came up out of nowhere.
Member Since: 3 février 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16066
5. shoreacres
16:04 GMT le 24 septembre 2011
Morning, Bogon,

That map is really interesting. A picture, a thousand words and all that. I'm glad you're getting some rain. I seem to remember that it's a nice experience!

The past week or so, we've had a real reminder of what heat stress can do. Even though we've only had about a inch of rain in my neighborhood in the past month (give or take) many of the flowers and shrubs are starting to bloom again. I saw amaryllis blooming like crazy in an empty lot - wrong time of year for that. Some tropicals like the Bougainvillea are coming back, and the oleanders. Even some trees and shrubs are putting on new leaves - it looks so funny to see the dry, shriveled ones mixed with fresh new growth. If only we could get some rain to help things along - I'm sure many of the plants could be saved, but another month of two of this and it's going to be kaput.

No sense checking the radar for the next week, it seems. Hot. Dry. Sunny. Hoorah. I just was looking at that CIMSS - looks like someone built a wall across the GOM. Not funny, but - well, funny.

I've got an all-chore weekend planned, with a brief interval for a trip - at last! - to get my burger and onion rings. You know how they say reality is never as good as fantasy? We're going to test that out this afternoon. ;)
Member Since: 4 octobre 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
4. Bogon
22:40 GMT le 23 septembre 2011
Hi, BriarCraft. Congrats on first!

Our water bill hasn't been too bad. I haven't been trying to keep the grass green. I just want to keep the landscaping (shrubs, flowers, trees etc.) going. We started the summer with some newly planted trees that had no chance to grow roots before the heat cranked up. Now that the heat stress is ending, they should be good to go.

Hey, Skye. The drought map shows how things were before the rain (9/20). The seven day cumulative rainfall map shows that corner of the state got plenty of wet stuff.
Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754
3. Skyepony (Mod)
20:41 GMT le 23 septembre 2011
Hope ya'll see lots of steady light rain. My farm looks to be real near the severe drought.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38761
2. BriarCraft
20:14 GMT le 23 septembre 2011
First! Hah!

I'm so glad you're out of the "dry slot", at least for now. That has got to be a big relief for plants and animals -- and your water bill, too.

I had 0.9" of rain at my place last weekend. It's been dry, but somewhat humid (not by your standards, but by our PNW standards) this week, with rain in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Time to start draining and putting away garden hoses pretty soon.
Member Since: 21 juin 2004 Posts: 84 Comments: 4207
1. Bogon
19:38 GMT le 23 septembre 2011
This one goes out to Ophelia, wherever she may be.

Member Since: 26 juin 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3754

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About Bogon

Unemployed software engineer. "What is that?", you may ask. It's someone who has time to blog about the weather...

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