Dry Slot

This one goes out to Ophelia, wherever she may be.

Hi, BriarCraft. Congrats on first!

Our water bill hasn't been too bad. I haven't been trying to keep the grass green. I just want to keep the landscaping (shrubs, flowers, trees etc.) going. We started the summer with some newly planted trees that had no chance to grow roots before the heat cranked up. Now that the heat stress is ending, they should be good to go.

Hey, Skye. The drought map shows how things were before the rain (9/20). The seven day cumulative rainfall map shows that corner of the state got plenty of wet stuff.

Shore, Wife and I are at the beach this week. No sooner did we arrive than a new invest popped up in the neighborhood. I'm worried that we might get a little too much rain.

I recall Texas' second season as an annual event. We get that here, too, to some extent. Looking out the window, I see a palm tree with a lot of brown fronds. This time of year that's probably sun damage. All this rain should help. It should be a couple of months yet before that palm has to worry about frost damage (if then).

As for MIMIC, it seems the Blue Meanies are winning. For a while it looked like the forces of Orange Precipitable Water (OPW) had Blue forces on the run, but now Blue is making a comeback.

Ylee - yes, I think Invest 91 might put a damper on the beach action. Wife and I would be perfectly happy to snuggle up for a few cloudy days, but I don't want to evacuate from our vacation.

Good morning, Ylee. Thanks for asking.

We have a couple of days remaining in our beach getaway. The first part of the week was a washout weather-wise. Mostly cloudy and rainy, though the air and water are warm. If you're going swimming, you can only get so wet, so rain is not necessarily a deterrent. Lightning is a different story.

Last night we watched lightning flashing in distant storm clouds here and there around the compass. I'm not used to the unobstructed horizon. It's hard to guess how far away the storms really were. Too far to hear thunder over the surf.

Yesterday was our first mostly sunny day. The sky is cloudy again this morning, but the storm track has shifted east and offshore. If we get rain today, it will be an isolated shower, not an all-day tropical invest.

Home again. The cats were glad to see us.

I think part of me is still at the beach watching the waves come in.

Thanks, Shore. In most ways it's good to be home. For instance, here I don't worry about being swept away by a tidal wave.

Not that I spent the last week huddled in abject terror. It's just that the presence of a giant body of water right in front of the house was hard to ignore. It roared and pulsed and waved constantly. I am aware that various phenomena are capable of making that water slosh. From our location it would have taken at least two hours' warning to pack up our stuff and retreat across the bridge to higher ground. That's assuming no traffic jam. If everybody on the island tried to evacuate at the same time, they might all die with their engines idling.

Maybe I've been watching too many disaster flicks. Lots of people live along that beach (though most of the permanent residents live farther back from the tide line) without undue anxiety. I don't know whether that's because they have computed the odds and are satisfied that the probabilities are low, or whether they just live day to day without thinking too much about their restless neighbor, the Atlantic Ocean.

It's cooler here as well. For the last few weeks I've been marking time on my Wunderblog, while most of my energy and attention focused elsewhere. Time marked and time passed, and lo, it's a new world! Suddenly we have a new season and a new month with coolth and rain (snow flurries in the high northern mountains) that were almost unimaginable before Labor Day.

Hi, sfinds. Thanks for taking the time to say howdy.

It was a most excellent week-long vacation, despite the rainy weather and despite the fact that Wife and I came down with snorts and sneezes about halfway through. We had a pretty good idea what to expect; we rented the same place a couple of years ago in May. The picture I'm using for an avatar was taken there with beach sand for background. I thought about asking Wife to snap a new version, so you could see the older slightly worse-for-wear Bogon.

Thought, but did not act. For the time being we'll have to make do with the old (or newer, depending on how you look at it) me.

Ophelia, where have you gone? She has wandered off the map. Like several storms this year, she went by way of Newfoundland. What a strange lonely island, where old hurricanes go to die.

Phillipe looks fit to fizzle in mid-ocean. I doubt anyone will miss him. I went to YouTube to find a song for Philippe, but no joy. Granted, the Band's great song Ophelia would be a hard act to follow, but the search engine found nothing. No one has ever seen fit to honor 'Philippe' with a song. The closest thing was video of Philippe Cousteau diving through clouds of emulsified oil in the Gulf of Mexico last year. Not exactly what I had in mind. It may have been a perfect storm, but you can't tap your foot to it.

The Cape Verde wave train has detoured onto a siding. Under the circumstances our best chance for tropical storm development appears to be along a stalled front southeast of Florida. An upper level low that has lingered over the eastern United States for the last week is finally moving offshore. High pressure will move in behind it. Circulation around the high will make conditions more favorable for something to spin up in the Caribbean.

There are signs that the MJO may lend support as well. The GFS ensemble phase chart predicts that the MJO will be moving into the western hemisphere. Traces of upward motion are showing up in the eastern Pacific now.

Not that I lend a lot of credence to the GFS ensemble chart. Based on my own observations I would say that it does a lousy job predicting the MJO's short term activity. In fact, all the MJO forecasts at NCEP pretty much suck. There are over a dozen different maps and graphs and charts there, which purport to predict the MJO. Without exception they are hard to read, and you would likely get better accuracy by throwing darts at a spinning globe.

There, I feel better now.

Yep, the whole world is connected. If a butterfly flaps its wings in Newfoundland, will a hurricane come to me?

Ylee, I hope you haven't grown impatient waiting for a reply. It's not every day that I can come up with something to say. And, believe it or not, once in a while I decide to let one of my visitors have the last word. :o)

Philippe somehow managed to gather himself together and carry on. Bloody perseverance availed him not at all, because at this point he has merged into a temperate frontal zone and is being swept away eastward. North America is beyond his reach. If he represents a threat to anyone, it will be folks in the Azores or Europe.

The next area that bears watching for tropical storm development is Cuba. My favorite weather models agree that a blob will move north toward Florida within the next few days. They still disagree on the details. ECMWF steers the low center into the Gulf of Mexico, while GFS hugs the east coast. NAM splits the difference and tracks right up the peninsula. After that the results look about the same. Georgia and the Carolinas can look forward to a good dousing. Farther north, where torrential rain will be less welcome, the storm will deepen into a nor'easter.

Have I mentioned how much I like MIMIC? For keeping an eye on the tropics it's hard to beat. It's like NOAA's water vapor imagery, only in color. There's a nifty global map here. This imagery extends to higher latitude than the Atlantic view posted above, and it covers 360° of longitude. One caveat: the web site itself is pretty minimal, but the payload is a large animated GIF file that may take a while to download, depending on your bandwidth. The page automatically updates every time a new frame is added to the animation. I haven't figured out exactly how often that is, but it's on the order of a few minutes. If, like me, you become fascinated watching the swirlies, you'll end up having to download the GIF again.

Let me know if that represents a problem for you. The internet has been around for a generation now, and I doubt there are many folks left out there who connect to it via dialup modem. If you have a slow connection, and if it's not by choice, you ought to call your Congressman. Don't call the phone company, because they don't care. They don't have to. Your Congressman may not care either, but that's a problem of a different kind.

A few years ago I tried to explain to my dad why the home computer was a world-changing gadget. He thought of it as office equipment, a better typewriter. I told him it was a more generalized capability, like telegraph or telephone or television, but really all of the above rolled into one. I'm not sure he ever got it, possibly because of his age or possibly because I did a poor job of explaining.

These days it's all about the internet. People do internet on their cell phones. These small hand-held devices can't do much number crunching, but they can show you a web page. Lots of web sites are packaging their content with mobile devices in mind.

A UN report has declared that all people have the right to internet access. That's pretty fast work for an emergent technology. Where will it take us?

I don't know, but hang on for the ride!

The anticipated subtropical flareup is now in place over Florida. It should bring rain here in about two days. We can use it, because it has been dry here since the big rain mentioned in the header.

Good news for folks farther north: all the models have backed off the intensification of the storm. It will not wind up like a nor'easter. It will drag a long fetch of tropical moisture behind it, and it will tangle with a front moving east across the Great Lakes and Canada. It will likely produce lots of rain where it is not needed, but today's model scenario is not as bad as the initial predictions.

Also gone from the long range models is the suggestion of a second tropical system entering the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean. The GFS depicts a storm moving into the Atlantic, but that's more than a week away, an interval over which the model is notoriously unreliable.

Add: Doc Masters calls the storm in Florida 'extratropical'. I mention that in case the difference in prefix is important to you. Normally I try to get the language right. Subtropical, extratropical, pseudotropical, hemisemidemitropical — right now I can't seem to get very excited over fine declensions in tropicalitude. Proliferation of these terms strikes me as more confusing than helpful.

Hey, Briar. I stopped by your place earlier today, only to find out that you have been so busy that you disabled comments on your blog. I hope things are going well with the many chores on your list. A rainy day may be just what the doctor ordered. In your case you may not need the moisture, but it sounds as if you can use a break.

We need the rain here. I have mostly stopped watering, because the heat stress has eased, but we're dry. Expecting rain tonight. I planted a gardenia and a tea olive (osmanthus) this weekend. I'm hoping for good rain to help them settle in.

My ISP is Time-Warner cable. I received an advisory this month that our connection speed has increased, I assume because of infrastructure improvements on their part. So far I have not tested the claim. Our connection is nothing super, but it's fast enough that delay is usually for DNS lookup or on the server end.

Of course, I live in town. My parents' house in rural western North Carolina is a different story. Electricity in the forties sounds about right. (I wasn't born yet.) They pump their water from a spring. There's no cable, and they only recently (5 years or less) got DSL. There is no cell phone reception there.

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Dogwood is starting to turn red. It's getting Halloweeny, too. Pumpkins perch on porches. Spiders dangle in the corners, and multicolored mushrooms peek from under bushes. The coming rain will surely make the mushrooms burgeon, unless it gets cold afterward. The days have continued warm up until now. The local forecast shows low temperatures holding in the fifties over the next few days.

In comment 15 I ranted about the MJO charts at the Climate Prediction Center. Part of the problem seems to be that the phase charts have been stuck on Oct. 2nd for the last week. Here's an up to date chart.

All hype and no action: very light very desultory rain this morning. After about eight hours of it, I found a tenth of an inch of water in the rain gauge. Unless a more energetic embedded blob blows across the Dry Slot, this nameless quasitropical thingie from Florida is going to be massively underwhelming. Right now it looks as if the rain is about to end.

Next up is a cold front, the one that finally broke the drought across Texas. I suppose I'll have to pin my hopes on that.

Hey, Skye. The low center of the storm seems to be headed toward the mountains. That and orographic lifting ought to guarantee good rain for Mills River.

Weather here continues damp and dreary. We've gotten a little bit of rain, which is better than none at all. This morning the NAM model suggested we might get a second wave as the center went by, but so far radar does not bear that out. The weather chart shows the low still lurking over the Florida panhandle. There may be more to come.

I'm not sure what was going on with the CPC's MJO page. Looks like it's working fine now.

There was indeed another wave of rain overnight. Rainy weather is good for sleeping. I slept long and well, but I think I heard thunder sometime during the night. At lunchtime today my rain gauge held six tenths of an inch. That's more like it.

Rain has stopped, but skies remain cloudy. MIMIC shows that the tongue of tropical moisture, which was hooking into the storm front, has now disconnected. It appears to be licking straight northward toward New England.

This was a complex and (for me, anyhow) confusing weather system. Intellicast's mixed surface analysis map still shows a low in south Georgia, and the northward streaming tropical air is depicted as a warm front along the southeast coast. The original wave of rain has reached New York.

The system that brought rain to Texas has gone to Canada. There is another front right behind it, which is in position to take over where the first one left off. That front may trigger more rain tomorrow, but it should bring dryer air and clearing by Friday.

A little rain fell this morning as the low pressure center from Florida finally passed to the east. Then the sun came out. Now it's clouding up again. Looks like it will rain some more. Later tonight a cold front should clear the area.

There's a big blob in the northwest Caribbean Sea this afternoon. Don't know if anything will come of it, but it sure looks interesting. Low pressure all around.

More sunny days. No complaints.

Hi, Pros. Actually I'm having a beer after mowing the lawn. The grass has almost stopped growing, but the wild onions are very much in season. In spring and fall mowing is a fragrant herbal experience, much like my wife tries to create each time she soaks in the tub.

That's a cute kitten, creating its own new world. Each of us is born into a new world. Then we get old, and we learn that it's really an old, old world. Most of the things that a person may do have been done before. The outcome of most actions we may take is known and recorded somewhere. Yet some of us retain the capacity to think and do new things.

So, what's new with you?

Skye, that sounds like something you would do. :o)

While I have certainly tasted a wild onion, I don't recall ever using one for cooking. If I did, it was a one-of-a-kind experiment. Of course, I'm an indifferent cook. I like to eat, but I don't enjoy the process of cooking. To me cooking is a means to an end. It's the end that interests me.

When I was in school I always ate at the cafeteria. Lots of people complained about cafeteria food, but I seldom had a problem finding something I could chow down on. I bought a meal plan at the beginning of the semester. To me it was a cost effective solution. It's doubtful that I could have eaten as well by preparing my own food. If I accounted for the extra time required to find and fix the ingredients, then clean up the mess afterwards, there's no way I could have eaten as cheaply.

Good morning, sfinds.

You have put your finger on a major consideration when it comes to cooking. When I was in school, I was single. There was nobody else depending on me for meals.

In a family, especially if there are children, somebody has to do the cooking. It behooves the designated cook to suck it up and try to do a good job, regardless of whether he finds it enjoyable. It would surely help if he could find something of interest in the task. Otherwise he'll have to rely on a sense of duty and let customer satisfaction be his reward.

Ahoy, Shore! Nice to see you safely home again, even though you found Dixie sulking under the bed. Our cats pretend not to recognize me after I have been gone for a few days. I go about my business as usual, and after a while the cats begin to realize that there's something familiar about this guy.

I don't believe anyone ever ate a doughnut because he though it was sensible. Doughnuts clamor to be eaten. Somebody's gotta do it! :o)

Still awaiting weather here. Our forecast promises a one-two punch, starting with invest 95L and ending with your cold front. There is potential for heavy rain depending on the track of the low. Today the predicted high is in the low 80's, but by the end of the week temperatures may drop into the 30's. It's time to bring the plants in.

There was just a smidgeon under 2" (5 cm) of rain in the gauge this morning, and light rain is still falling.

A little cool outside as well. I was wearing shorts, which worked fine yesterday (and for about the last six months). When I came back inside, I turned off the air conditioning. According to the local forecast our temperature will rise into the low seventies today, which is warmer than we will see at any time throughout the remainder of the week.

So, will we see 80's again? All it takes is a warm spell, which can happen even in January. But local climatology is switching inexorably into wintertime mode. Average highs are dipping below room temperature. Average lows are sinking into the forties.

Another time, another season...

The sun rose bright this morning. The temperature is in the forties, and a southwest wind is jiggling leaves outside my window. The sunshine and the temperature range should stay relatively constant over the next few days. WU's weather models utter no discouraging words for the next week or more.

GFS drops a hint for the ten-day time period, when we may look for the next storm and our first taste of cold weather. By then it will be turning November, and a cold shot would be timely.

The chances for tropical weather are declining. The intertropical convergence zone is settling southward, so that tropical waves impact the coast of South America rather than entering the Caribbean Sea. At roughly the same time that the 5400 thickness line first brushes the Dry Slot, the GFS depicts a blob besieging Honduras (edit: originally said Guatemala. Got my countries mixed up. Should have checked a map, one with labels.). Ten days is a lot of lead time, though. The model may change its mind half a dozen times between now and then.

Skye - I'm visiting the mountains for a few days. When I left Burlington the trees were still mostly green. Along I-26 from Asheville to Mars Hill autumn leaf color is near its peak. Here, ten miles farther north on the other side of Buckner Gap, the leaves are fading already. Recent rain and wind knocked a lot of them down. Morning lows are dipping below freezing. My mom doesn't think her tomato plants have been killed yet, but they surely can't last much longer.

Hold on, Shore, I'm not ready for winter yet. I will get snow as well as the grim gray and brown. Right now the weather is very nice, and I'm in no hurry to end it.

I don't consider your complaints about drought in Texas to be whining. Texans have a legitimate beef. I hope the weather gods relent and send you rain this winter and spring.

At noon today skies are flawless blue over Mom's house in western North Carolina. The air feels different — a little warmer, gentler, more humid. I feel the urge to grab my camera and go for a walk. When I get home tomorrow I'll post some pictures.

It's about time for a new blog. The information in my header is old news. The MJO has come and gone. The tropical season is winding down. The drought monitor still looks relevant, but that's because of the weekly update schedule. We've had significant rain since last Tuesday, the cutoff date indicated on the map.

I keep a list of possible blog topics. I need to pick one, dust it off, turn it over in my mind and start typing. I'll probably be mulling that over as I walk. I can stretch my legs, maybe snap a few photos, and it's a good time to clear one's mind and tackle a problem.

Hey, Ylee. Home again, and I finally got some pictures uploaded. A new blog should be coming soon.

Rina will be bad news for Cozumel and Cancun in Quintana Roo. Between interaction with the landmass of Yucatán and increasing wind shear as she moves northward, she'll have a hard time keeping her act together after that. Nevertheless, south Florida should be on the lookout for Rina remnants in a couple of days.

There's another tropical wave behind Rina. Tonight's European model shows that wave feeding into a major east coast storm next week.