LiveBlog: March 2nd Severe Weather Outbreak
This is a huge day for severe weather, not only here in Central Ohio but for a large portion of the Eastern US. This is one of those days you don't take lightly. Today you need to have your weather radio on. Period.
Yesterday I forecasted where I thought the SPC might put out it's vaunted High Risk area for this event, and it looks like I wasn't too far off. If anything I under estimated. On the left is what I forecasted, on the right is the lastest threat area from the SPC:
Seeing a High Risk this close to home is rare. Seeing a High Risk this early in the year is down right unheard of.
While we're in a Moderate Risk, I'm not nearly as concerned for us as I am for areas to the south. Storms will begin to fire by early afternoon in Tennessee and Kentucky. I believe our biggest threat will be late when we will see more of a bowing line segment look.
I'm going to update this all day with new information, but for now I feel like I can make a scary prediction:
There will be at least one EF4 tornado between Bowling Green and Louisville by late afternoon. I hope I'm wrong, though.
Our first tornado of the day, with debris reported. It's starting early...
Tornado on the ground, just north of Huntsville, AL
With Tornado Watches and Warnings already popping up to our south, now we have our first PDS Tornado Watch coming just a little closer to home:
Obviously the storms associated with this first watch will be heading east over the next several hours, and that volitile area of weather should be here right in the middle of the afternoon heating.
What's more dangerous is the potential for clearing this afternoon after our initial area of weak thunderstorms from the warm front passes and we get a cloud free area begin to really enhance the atmosphere. The best way to see this? The sat:
That red arrow will be where warm, moist air will push ahead of the frontal trough and fire our severe storms this afternoon.
AnalougeKid pointed out that things just got pretty serious for us here. SW Ohio has been now moved in to the High Risk area by the SPC. That area reaches almost all the way to Columbus, but putting Cincinnati in the target area for now.
This is the time to prepare for the absolute worst...
Also, this MD fron the SPC about Ohio:
THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN ADVANCE
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE...MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ADVECTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.
Here it is folks, our Tornado Watch. For the first time I can remember in a very long time, we here in Central Ohio are under a PDS TORNADO WATCH. Please read the bulletin below:
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
Two strong tornadoes are on the ground, just north of Louisville and are headed east northeast. On their current track they will end up in the general vicinity of south central Ohio around 6:30-7:30 this evening.
These are the long tracked tornadoes I talked about earlier today. Everyone must keep an eye on these storms.
The storm threat has passed. And for us here in Central Ohio we missed out completely. A High Risk thunderstorm potential turned in to a tenth of an inch of rain.
In the end the warm moist air never made it far enough north ahead of the front. The tornadic storms I mentioned earlier just north of Louisville? They stayed far south... near the Ohio River.
The tornado outbreak materialized, but just not for us. And I believe everyone in Ohio is breathing a sigh of relief.
Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0