Daniel weakening; Emilia begins to weaken; 98E may develop
Tropical Storm Daniel is slowly weakening further as it is moving westward over the Pacific Ocean. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 1000 mbar, making it a tropical storm. The storm is moving westward at 17 mph, and it is situated roughly 1225 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Recent satellite imagery reveals that the small tropical storm is producing small area of deep convection.
Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is anticipated to continue moving inexorably westward over the next several days by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. The cyclone is expected to cross 140°W longitude into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility in the next day. Most models agree with this forecast track of the cyclone. Daniel is expected to continue weakening over the next several days as it is forecasted to remain in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures, dry air, and increasing wind shear. The cyclone is anticipated to become a remnant low in the next 36 hours. The remnant low of Daniel is forecasted to dissipate south of Hawaii. The remnants may bring some added showers to Hawaii in the next several days.
Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
Hurricane Emilia begins to weaken
Hurricane Emilia begins to weaken, after it attains peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Both microwave and visible satellite images suggest that the cyclone is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which is typical for intense tropical cyclones. This cycle is likely weakening the cyclone slightly. The latest NHC advisory states that Emilia is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 953 mbar. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located about 690 miles south-southwestward of the southern tip of Baja California.
Forecast for Emilia
Emilia is expected to continue moving west-northwestward over the next four days by the high pressure ridge over southwestern United States. Models forecast the high pressure ridge to strengthen over the Pacific Ocean. This would cause Emilia to turn westward in the next four days and beyond. Many models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. Emilia is not forecasted to threaten any land areas as a tropical cyclone. However, it might affect Hawaii in the next 8 to 9 nine days as a remnant low by bringing some added showers. Emilia is likely beginning the weakening trend. The eyewall replacement cycle would likely last in the next 24 hours or so. After that, Emilia is expected to enter into unfavorable conditions with cooler waters and drier air, which these should weaken the cyclone gradually.
Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Emilia. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
Invest 98E may develop in the coming days
To the east of Emilia, there is an elongated area of low pressure producing shower and thunderstorm activity. The low pressure system is classified as Invest 98E, and it is located several hundred miles south of Mexico. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the system’s overall cloud pattern remains disorganized, but it is slowly showing signs of organization. 98E is forecasted to move west-northwestward over the next several days and later move north-northwestward. It is not expected to threaten Mexico over the next seven days. The SHIPS model indicates that environmental conditions appear favorable for the system’s further development. Most of the models forecast 98E to become a tropical storm in the next several days. The NHC is giving 98E a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Figure 3. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 98E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.