Fabio attains peak intensity, should begin to weaken
Hurricane Fabio attains its peak intensity as it moves west-northwestward. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 972 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located about 640 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image reveals that the eye has become cloud-filled and the deep convection has somewhat diminished. These indications suggest that Fabio is beginning to weaken due to the hurricane moving into unfavorable conditions.
Forecast for Fabio
Fabio has reached its peak intensity, and it is now beginning to weaken. The hurricane is moving into cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, which is unfavorable for tropical cyclones. Fabio is expected to weaken rapidly as it is expected to move into colder waters and drier air. Fabio should weaken to a tropical storm in the next 24 hours or sooner. By the next 72 hours, the cyclone will likely become a remnant low and will later dissipate. Fabio is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 24 hours by a high pressure ridge. After that, the cyclone should turn north-northwestward and then northward by the low pressure trough, which is expected to create a break in the high pressure ridge. Some models are in good agreement with this forecast track. Fabio is not anticipated to be a major threat to land.
Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Emilia has become a remnant low, and it is moving westward into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility. After Fabio dissipates, the eastern Pacific is expected to be temporarily quiet without tropical cyclones. No tropical cyclone development is expected for the Atlantic basin in the next 48 hours. However, the GFS model is forecasting possible tropical cyclone development from the low pressure trough split over the Atlantic Ocean and near the United States East Coast by the next six to eight days. For the eastern Pacific, some models, including the ECMWF, are forecasting possible tropical cyclone formation by the next seven days or so.