Fabio continues to weaken over the Pacific
Fabio is weakening as it moves northward in unfavorable atmospheric conditions. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mbar, making it a weak tropical storm. Recent satellite image shows that Fabio continues to produce little convection. The combination of cold sea surface temperatures, dry air, and increasing shear should continue to weaken Fabio. The cyclone will likely become a tropical depression later tonight, and become a remnant low in the next 12 to 18 hours. Fabio is expected to dissipate in the next 2 to 3 days. The system is anticipated to continue moving northward and later turn slightly north-northeastward; many models agree with this forecast. The remnants of Fabio might increase shower activity to portions of southern California by the next 24 hours or so.
Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).
Aside from Fabio, there is an area of disturbed weather that is located about 775 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The development of this system is forecasted to be gradual. Global models are not forecasting significant development of this system. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
For the Atlantic basin, few models forecast possible tropical cyclone development from the trough split near the United States East Coast by the next five to eight days. However, I have some doubts that it will really form.