2008 Boston Marathon Weather
The 112th Boston Marathon is scheduled for Monday, April 21, 2008, and one month out now, it still looks like we will have good weather. You may remember that after receiving pre-race emails from the BAA warning about extreme conditions, last year's runners saw race day conditions improve at the last minute, warming from near freezing temps and a very strong headwind, although the rain and some headwind persisted.
According to the CPC, the current ENSO outlook is for the current LaNina conditions to continue through race day. For the Boston Area, this usually means about average temperatures and chance of precipitation. . Last year's race came after a waning ElNino and under the ENSO neutral pattern. Of course, much more than the the ENSO signal will determine the race day weather. NWS 30 day outlook discussion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
According to WU almanac/archives, the averages for 4/21 are:
The Average High Temperature is 62 F with a historical range of 48 F to 87 F
The Average Low Temperature is 44 F with a historical range of 36 F to 55 F
There is a 57% chance of a Warm Day (temperature over 60°F / 16°C).
(16 days out of 28 in historical record)
The Average Daily Precipitation is 0.11 with a historical range of 0.00 to 0.67
There is a 36% chance of a Precipitation Day.
Average Cloud Cover is partly cloudy
There is a 18% chance of a Cloudy Day.
The Average Wind is 10 mph with a historical range of 5 mph to 17 mph
There is a 43% chance of a Windy Day (average wind over 10 mph / 15km/h).
Humidity:
The Average High Dew Point is 45 F with a historical range of 23 F to 59 F
The Average Low Dew Point is 30 F with a historical range of 10 F to 49 F
There is a 0% chance of a Humid Day (dew point over 65°F / 18°C).
The 26.2 mile race starts further inland in Hopkinton, MA, and they average 2F colder than Boston. Graphical Averages
Historically, race day conditions are either cooler than normal, with a headwind, or warmer than normal, with a tailwind. As the Boston Marathon is a straight point-to-point run, the wind shouldn't change much during the race, but a wide swing in conditions during the race is a possibility (especially for those who, like me, are going to take several hours to complete the run). A survey of race day weather from past Strong LaNina years indicates that slightly warmer than normal temperatures and a tailwind are favored. Since I live and train in Florida, I will be just as happy if we see a record high temp.
While I will be prepared for most any weather, I will be looking for a temp at start time of 55F with a high for the day of 70F, few clouds, and no rain. The forecast for this race is notoriously labile, and with the pattern now just settling into a zonal flow, by race day in four weeks we could see a change to a stormier pattern. I will update this as we get closer to race day, and I will try to post "eyewitness" reports from Hopkinton (starting line) beginning two days before the event, with an update race morning.
Massachusetts locals and others with insight into this forecast are especially welcome to add comments. Runners?
3/31/08
Three weeks out now & the Jet Stream , while showing signs of a more amplified pattern (stronger storms, maybe colder/windier), either way is bringing a series of storms (as eyewitnessed by NEwxguy) through the area. How far north it will retreat between now & April 21 is anyone's guess, but the averages for this date (3/31) for the Boston area are wetter than for 4/21. This weeks weather(3-31-08) looks only good for running two days as progged by WU.
Wind chill outlook
4/1/08
"Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-averagel temperatures in the eastern United States...Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO."
Looking over the pages at the link above appears to show that there is greater correlation of the NAO phase to temperature than to precipitation for the NE US, and that near term Progs lean toward (-) NAO & possible cooler temperatures for Boston for the next two-three weeks.
This graphic will update so the forecast may have changed since posted.
3:20 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
As of this post date, the 384 Hour GFS Model loop doesn't yet go out to race day, but it appears to show a storm moving through about every three days. It that were to bear out, low pressure would return to the area on the 19th & 22nd, good for a race on the 21st. But that is supposition based on a long shot. Wishcasting? Maybe. With some help from more experienced WU bloggers, I will try to get this dialed in for you runners & spectators.
3/4/08
Just out today
4/8/08
One more long run (with multiple bridges) to go & race day is within the scope of the GFS model. I interpret it to show about 42F at race start with S to SW winds 10 increasing throughout the day as does the chance of rain.
GFS 4-panel chart 12:00 04/21/08 (312 hour)
Local and/or experts feel free to comment here!
Beginning the 15th, the WU Boston page will have a forecast.
4/11/08
Longest training run out of the way. A little sore - hope it goes away before the marathon & my late taper doesn't backfire. For about 22,000 friends, the hard part is over, list items are collected & ready to pack.
The 18Z run 4/10/08 of the GFS model, on the 252 hour panel for race start time has us back near where I started this blog, with Boston on the back side of high pressure planted off the Eastern seaboard providing a warm 50F, high of 70F, light S-SE crosswind & little or no precipitation on race day. Great for a runner from Florida who was less than thrilled about leaving the 86F that I trained in yesterday to run in anything near freezing. But we'll see, 1t's still pretty far out. The forecast changes daily, but is beginning to firm up.
The ECMWF model seems to be in agreement.
4/13/08
8 days, good recovery, soreness gone, Taking it easy this week. Weather still looks good.
4/14/08
GFS forecast appears to show temps trending a little cooler, with wind E around 10mph thanks to 1029mb high not as far offshore, instead just to the N, SSTs in the 40 reflected in temps in the low 40sF at start & high 50s for a high (but cooler as we get closer to the aforementioned sea surface), still with no rain. Partly Cloudy & warmer Monday evening for those returning.
Link
Late - WU posts the NWS forecast for Monday, April 21.
The 30% chance of rain now is due to the onshore flow..
4/15/08
Easy 12 miler yesterday - no problems. Thought about moving a treadmill into the walk-in freezer to acclimate, but now it's in the low 40s here in Central Florida.
The forecast for Eastern Mass on race day continues to change (we knew it would) & the cross wind previously forecast looks like more of a headwind now up to 13mph (this will help on the downhills:) & some predict higher with gusts to 30, some forecasters are calling for from 30% to 60% chance of light rain, high of 52-58, while the NWS now forecasts:
Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
The last 3 marathons I ran were in light rain & windy 40s, so I should be used to it (but I would prefer 70s).
NWS point forecast
4/16/08
Forecast Discussion
4/20/08
I'm out here in Hopkinton, one day of rest before we run. Best of luck to all runners & spectators. Se you out there. The spectators truly have the hardest job!
Nothing to add to the forecast except to tweak the temps back up a little, & the headwind down a little.
From blogger StormW -thanks:
Min. Temp: 44F
Max Temp: 57-58F
Rain Chance: 30-40%
Sky: OVC
Wind: ENE to E @ 10-12 KTS.
The "eyewitness" weather onscene here verifies the foregoing - the weather probably couldn't be better.
Looking East from the start:
4/21/08
The weather was perfect. It was a great run & a good time was had by all. The volunteers put on a perfect race, got us there on time & took us back. Thanks so much. Oh, and hills. What hills? I didn't notice much wind out on the course either, maybe briefly in Newton.
The Next Day
Ok, maybe there were hills (quads feeling it now).
Check back beginning next March for an early (unofficial) forecast for the 2009 (113th) Boston marathon.
BTW - I got a set of the town signs (see above) refrigerator magnets, and (IMO) the coolest race "T" shirts from the Hopkinton Athletic Assn website. We come & trash their town, show some love!
Reader Comments
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Completed a 22 mile training run (more of a jog, with the injury), got some hills done, but no speed to do speed work. Goal is to finish - weather be d@mmed!
I believe so. My resting heart rate is still 42-44, was 38-40 when I was able to train harder.
6. OGal 4:18 PM EDT on March 31
Here's a link to the page on the BAA website:
http://www.bostonmarathon.org/BostonMarathon/Qualifying.asp
What was your time?
Take care Evy
I don't even check here myself that often, just surprised to see the bump on the blog list. I know you had an awesome marathon PR that was way under BQ, & also why it is out for you, the same way a return trip probably is for me. Rather just enjoy running than risk that wear & tear, but maybe someday (in another age group). If I don't run, I would like to at least go again as a spectator or volunteer to help the runners the way I was helped. It is an unparalleled spectacle.
Since my second knee surgery, I just don't run anymore....unless it's away from bears :)
Hi Dragonfly, I don't check here very often. Rooms? Here in Florida or in Hopkinton where I stayed? Get extra smokin' - anything worth doing is worth overdoing. Too bad about the knee. :(
Running from bears reminds me of the old running joke:
Two hikers on a trail came around the bend to find an enormous brown bear about 75 yards up the trail. The bear spies them and begins running toward them at a full gallop. One hiker drops his backpack, sits down, throws off his boots, and starts lacing up a pair of running shoes. The other hiker says: "What are you doing? You will never outrun that bear!". The first hiker replies: "I don't have to outrun the bear..."
Hi Carolinagal! Thanks for asking - The injury continues to improve slowly but surely. Started Boston in first wave & was caught by the 2nd wave. I still don't have the speed to compete at 5 or 10K where I used to do well locally in age group. I am looking at a charity stair climb (firefighter division, with bunker gear & air pack), a half marathon in Jan, and the Sarasota Marathon - one I haven't done yet. I have not done the Peachtree 10K yet - maybe in a couple of years.
Be careful if you're out celebrating tonight! Have a good time though!
Here's a lil "cowboy" humor to bring in the new year!
Lone Ranger and Tonto
The Lone Ranger and Tonto walked into a bar
and sat down to drink a beer. After a few
minutes, a big tall cowboy walked in and said,
"Who owns the big white horse outside?"
The Lone Ranger stood up, hitched
his gun belt, and said, "I do...Why?"
The cowboy looked at the Lone Ranger and
said, "I just thought you would like to
know that your horse is about dead outside!"
The Lone Ranger and Tonto rushed outside,
and sure enough, Silver was ready to die
from heat exhaustion. The Lone Ranger got
the horse water, and soon, Silver was
starting to feel a little better.
The Lone Ranger turned to Tonto and said,
"Tonto, I want you to run around Silver
and see if you can create enough of a
breeze to make him start to feel better."
Tonto said, "Sure, Kemosabe," and took off
running circles around Silver. Not able to
do anything else but wait, the Lone Ranger
returned to the bar to finish his drink.
A few minutes later, another cowboy struts
into the bar and asks, "Who owns that big
white horse outside?"
The Lone Ranger stands again, and claims,
"I do, what's wrong with him this time?"
The cowboy looks him in the eye and says,
"Nothing, but you left your Injun runnin'."
...and the "tip" for the New Year - Don't leave your engine runnin'! ;P
For April 20 - 113th Boston Marathon
Based on long-range, crap-shoot models with little to no skill, and gut feeling, again with little to no skill, (may contain traces of nuts):
Clear, 37F at start, 48F at finish. Have a plan for any conditions.
Have fun.
Take a couple of garbage bags, one to sit on while you wait 1/2 mile from the start - (the school yard might be muddy), and another for a "poncho" JIC. A throwdown T shirt over the poncho will keep it from flapping should you need to run with it. If you've never been to a race this big, be forewarned that the level of decorum at the porta-potty village near the start will set a PR low. I'll bet those who couldn't wait any longer & decided to relieve themselves on the front of the U.S. Post Office (with a lady, 3 feet behind them yelling "DO NOT URINATE ON THE POST OFFICE" LOL), wished they had an extra garbage bag. On second thought, they probably didn't care. Don't overhydrate early - go at the staging area - bypass the johns at the start, kill your Gatoraid with 1 minute to the gun & you'll be OK. Drinks & RR every mile - you can wait. For you flatlanders (like me), a couple of extra GU pinned in your shorts came in handy - they pass out some, but if it's cold.... you don't want't to bonk on the hill.
Here's what the NWS is saying now that Monday is getting closer:
Monday-patriots day in Massachusetts...
quite a bit of uncertainty...forecast details are low confidence since
the path of an eventual rather wet Ohio Valley low into New England
is fraught with timing and latitude track uncertainty. Have increased
probability of precipitation per gefs and skycover well above 12z dry op GFS and continued with
previous kbox maximum temperatures and raised the mins so the diurnal is less.
Confidence on timing of rain is uncertain though my confidence in
measurable rain occurring sometime that calender day is above average
for widespread between .05 to 1 inch. We'll see how this evolves with
time.
Glad they cleared that up for us - LOL
Push Rim Wheelchair Start: 9:22 a.m.
Elite Women Start: 9:32 a.m.
Elite Men & Wave 1 Start: 10:00 a.m.
Wave 2 Start: 10:30 a.m.
and the competitors will be moving EAST as fast as they can, with the rain right behind. Good luck to all.
WATCH LIVE
JUST STOP BY TO SAY ----------
\\\\\ COME BY AND SEE ME SOME TIME /////
R9
Monday, April 19, 2010
TIME
Push Rim Wheelchair Start: 9:22 a.m.
Elite Women Start: 9:32 a.m.
Elite Men & Wave 1 Start: 10:00 a.m.
Wave 2 Start: 10:30 a.m.
Ten days out now, and the CPC 8-14 day outlook for the area is for above average temperature and average precipitation.
What does that mean? (WU Seasonal Averages)
GFS Forecasts 7day 16 day
GFSx 10 day loop
Some of the links on the original post auto-update and so are valid now (others are not - look at the date :)
Calling for warm with a quartering cross/tailwind for the 2010 runners.
Good Luck Runners! Have Fun!
"SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...NOT SURPRISING FOR DAY 6/DAY 7. MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOWS BEING SOMEWHERE IN NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT WITH RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP PATTERN. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AWAIT BETTER CONSISTANCY/CLARIFICATION ON LATER MODEL RUNS." NWS Boston
4/13/10 Official forecasts are calling for lows in Hopkinton in the mid 30s, but this should warm to 40 by the start. It should not warm up much by the time the runners get to Boston. slight chance of rain.
Slight chance for snow early morning? Maybe, but with some evap cooling as temps should remain above freezing.
After a cold and drizzly weekend, today is shaping up to be mostly sunny with temperatures around 50. The only question is the wind: it looks as if the runners will be dealing with a moderate crosswind for the first 17 miles or so, which may become a headwind as they make the turn at the firehouse onto Commonwealth Avenue.
And they're off!
I'll be there next year as I just re-qualified at the Disney Marathon in January.
Watch this space.
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