January 1 2012 - March 1 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 20:12 GMT le 31 décembre 2011

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD



------------------------------------------------- --- ----

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W - 1004 hPa



-------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Jaunary

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

------------------------------------------------- --

=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.Jasmine - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)
13F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
05U.NONAME

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)


------------------------------------------------- ---


==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

------------------------------------------------- -----

==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.Giovanna - 932 hPa
10R.Hilwa - 993 hPa
11R.IRINA - 985 hPa
12R.NONAME - 996 hPa

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Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
0:00 AM FST February 6 2012
====================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 23.4S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to eastern semi-circle. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Outflow good to north and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies just to the east of an eastward moving upper trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The system lies under a high sheared environment and is being steered eastwards. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east-southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 PM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 17.0S 154.9E or 760 km northeast of Mackay and 890 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.0S 157.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.2S 160.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.9S 165.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.7S 169.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on IR and microwave imagery, showing deep convection located to the west of the low level circulation center. System organization continues to improve under a favorable upper level diffulent pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
18:00 PM FST February 5 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved in the last 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to northeast semi-circle. Low level circulation center has become obscured and difficult to locate in past 3 hours. Outflow good to north through east to southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The depression is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean flow into a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east southeastwards with some intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Special Warnings For Fiji and Tonga
=======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS

A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP

Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.6S 179.8E or 255 NM west southwest of Nukalofa.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 PM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 17.2S 154.1E or 680 km northeast of Mackay and 800 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 156.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.3S 158.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.8S 163.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.0S 167.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on Visible imagery, showing deep convection located to the west of the low level circulation center. System organization continues to improve under a favorable upper level diffulent pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 AM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 17.2S 152.5E or 720 km east of Cairns and 285 km east southeast of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.2S 154.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.2S 157.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.7S 162.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.7S 166.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on Visible imagery, showing deep convection located to the west of the low level circulation center. System organization continues to improve under a favorable upper level diffulent pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
9:00 AM FST February 5 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (995 hPa) located at 22.0S 177.9E. Position poor based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 12 hours and is more confined in the eastern semi-circle. Depression lies under an upper diffluent region and in an area of low to moderate shear. The depression will continue to be steered east-southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models are moving the system east southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 AM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (986 hPa) located at 16.9S 151.8E or 640 km east of Cairns and 590 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.0S 154.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.9S 156.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.3S 161.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.2S 166.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on Willis Island radar. Deep convection persists to the west of the low level circulation center, however showing weak organization. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system. Favorable upper level divergence and decreasing wind shear may lead to gradual intensification over the next 48 hours. The system has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to continue moving to the east.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 PM EST February 4 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 16.9S 150.7E or 100 km southeast of Willis Is and 490 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 152.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.0S 154.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.2S 159.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.3S 164.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone centre position confident as system within Willis Island radar. Convection has flared near the low level circulation center suggesting lowering shear and increasing organization, though most of the convection still remains to the west of the system. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system with consistent Willis Island observations of 45 knots. Favourable upper divergence and wind shear indicating gradual intensification probable over the next 48 hours. The system has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to continue moving to the east.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
251. HadesGodWyvern
05:36 GMT le 04 février 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST February 4 2012
=====================================

At 1:00 PM EST, the monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea while a low currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea, about 450km east of Cairns. The low is forecast to move east across the Coral Sea, crossing 160E during Monday. The low will slowly intensify over the next couple of days. Even if this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Very Low
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
250. HadesGodWyvern
03:48 GMT le 04 février 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM EST February 4 2012
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, a tropical low was situated approximately 440 km east of Cairns and moving in an east to southeasterly direction at 3 knots.

The low is expected to continue moving in this direction away from the Queensland coast.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
249. HadesGodWyvern
01:05 GMT le 04 février 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F
9:00 AM FST February 4 2012
=====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (998 hPa) located at 19.7S 172.7E. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization remains poor for the last 12 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 12 hours. Disturbance lies beneath an upper level ridge axis. The system lies in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and will continue to be steered east-southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models are moving the system east-southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
248. HadesGodWyvern
18:45 GMT le 03 février 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 3 2012
================================

Area of disturbed weather over the Mozambique Channel:
================================================= ===

Last night, convection has again improved over the residual vortex that is centered at 0900Z near 25.9S 35.6E. It moves west southwestward at 7 kt. Upper level environment is favorable under an high tropospheric ridge, but low level inflow is very poor poleward side and non-existent equatorward. There is no potential for intensification. The low could reach the Mozambican coastline Saturday Morning and dissipate overland.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
247. HadesGodWyvern
09:26 GMT le 03 février 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
Tropical Disturbance 10F
18:00 PM FST February 3 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (998 hPa) located at 18.5S 169.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization remains poor for the last 12 hours. Convection has not increased much in the past 12 hours. Disturbance lies just to the south of an upper ridge and under the influence of a moderate northwest wind flow aloft. At this stage, the system lies in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and will continue to be steered southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models are moving the system southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
246. HadesGodWyvern
13:16 GMT le 02 février 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET February 2 2012
==================================

Extra-Tropical Depression 08 - Ex-FUNSO:
==========================================

The system is filling-up and is centered at 1100Z near 35.6S 57.5E with an estimated mean sea level pressure at about 1010 hPa. It drifts slowly eastwards at 5 kt and is expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours.

Area of disturbed weather over the Mozambique Channel:
================================================= =====

Totally exposed residual vortex is centered at 1100Z near 24.9S 37.9E. It moves Southwestwards at 11 kt. Low level inflow is weak on the both sides and this low is not expected to deepen significantly despite a favorable upper level environment. It could reach the Mozambican coastline Saturday late or Monday early if it is not dissipated before this range

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
245. HadesGodWyvern
13:12 GMT le 02 février 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST February 2 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F located at 22.0S 170.0E has 10 minute sustained winds up to 25 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization remains same for the last 12 hours. No deep convection associated with this system. Depression lies just to the north of an upper trough and to the east of an upper low. This upper low is expected to weaken in the next 24 hours. This system is being strongly steered to the south and centered in a moderate to strong vertical shear environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models are moving the system southwards with no further development.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
244. HadesGodWyvern
06:06 GMT le 02 février 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST February 2 2012
================================================= ===

A Tropical Low, 996 hPa, was located over western Cape York Peninsula, near 14.8S 142.0E at 9:30am CST on 2 February. The low is expected to move further eastwards, away from the Northern Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
243. HadesGodWyvern
06:04 GMT le 02 février 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST February 2 2012
===================================

The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea and is expected to develop further over the next few days. A weak low currently sits over northern Queensland, east of Kowanyama, and is forecast to move east into the Coral Sea on Friday. The low is forecast to develop further over the Coral Sea and continue to move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast, into the weekend. If this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High
Sunday: High
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
242. HadesGodWyvern
01:10 GMT le 02 février 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER IGGY (11U)
9:00 AM WST February 2 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Iggy (988 hPa) located at 29.6S 110.7E or 390 km west southwest of Geraldton and 560 km west northwest of Perth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
70 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 30.0S 113.1E - 35 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 29.9S 115.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Position determined from microwave and recent visible imagery. Insufficient deep convection to assign a DT on infrared. MET is 1.5 based on W+ trend, FT is held at 2.0 in accordance with rules and CI = 2.5. ADT is also running at CI 2.5. It is possible that an area of gales persists to the northeast induced by relatively rapid translation. Later on Thursday a period of gales may develop to the southwest of the system center as the low interacts with the high pressure system building in from the southwest.

It is likely that the upper remnants of the system will interact with the mid-latitude trough and contribute to gusty fire weather conditions, strong winds along the west coast, thunderstorms and rainfall in parts of the south Western Australia. Most models indicate the heaviest rainfall will occur off the coast, however it is possible that coastal and adjacent parts of the SW south of the low will experience moderate to heavy falls.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
241. HadesGodWyvern
20:36 GMT le 01 février 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 AM WST February 2 2012
=================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (986 hPa) located at 29.1S 110.1E or 440 km west of Geraldton and 495 km west northwest of Jurien Bay has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 29.9S 113.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 30.1S 115.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 30.0S 120.1E - 15 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Position determined from animated enhanced infrared imagery. The system seems to be under increasing shear as it begins to accelerate to the east southeast. ADT continues to weaken the system, with an estimate of 39 knots 1 minute mean wind at 1730UTC. FT is set at 3.0. It is possible Iggy may maintain 45 knots through the morning at the diurnally favorable time. After this Iggy should weaken rapidly.

Shear has increased to 16 knots from the north northwest and the upper cloud is beginning to shift southeastwards away from the low level circulation center. Shear will increase over the next 24 hours as the system interacts with mid-latitude westerlies. Although waters off the west coast are significantly warmer than usual they are only 22 to 24C under the forecast path of Iggy. Waters close to the coast are warmer than off the coast but by the time the system reaches these waters the system will be experiencing strong shear. All model guidance is consistent with a weakening trend through the next 24 hours.

Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There is only a low probability that gales could be maintained through to landfall. It is more likely the upper remnants of the system will interact with the mid-latitude trough and which may contribute to gusty fire weather conditions, strong winds along the west coast, thunderstorms and rainfall in parts of the southern Western Australia. Depending on the speed of movement over the next 24 hours rainfall in southern parts of the southern Western Australia may be enhanced during Thursday afternoon/evening, however most models indicate the heaviest rainfall will occur off the coast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
240. HadesGodWyvern
13:53 GMT le 01 février 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 PM WST February 1 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (986 hPa) located at 28.4S 108.4E or 610 km west of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 29.6S 110.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.9S 112.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 29.8S 119.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Position determined from animated visible imagery and recent microwave passes. The system has retained good organization of the cloud field but cloud top temperatures are noticeably warmer than yesterday. Wraps of about 0.5 were obtained on visible imagery over the last few visible images. enhanced infrared imagery using an eye pattern yielded a DT of 3.5, using an OW eye with a -0.5 adjustment for an elongated eye. ADT is steadily decreasing and is at 39 knot 1 minute mean wind at 1200UTC. CIMSS AMSU is higher at 62 knot 1 minute mean wind at 0900UTC but this may be an overestimate due to shear. FT is set at 3.0 if averaged over several hours and the 10 minute wind is 45 knots. It is possible Iggy may maintain 45 knots through the night at the diurnally favorable time of 1800 UTC. After this Iggy should weaken rapidly.

Shear has increased to 10 knots from the north northwest and the upper cloud is beginning to shift southeastwards away from the low level circulation center. Shear will increase over the next 24 hours as the system interacts with mid-latitude westerlies. Although waters off the west coast are significantly warmer than usual they are only 22 to 24 degrees under the forecast path of Iggy. Waters close to the coast are warmer than off the coast but by the time the system reaches these waters the system will be experiencing strong shear. All model guidance is consistent with a weakening trend through the next 24 hours.

Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There is only a low probability that gales could be maintained through to landfall. It is more likely the upper remnants of the system will interact with the mid-latitude trough and which may contribute to gusty fire weather conditions, strong winds along the west coast, thunderstorms and rainfall in parts of the southern western Australia. Depending on the speed of movement over the next 24 hours rainfall in southern parts of the southern western Australia may be enhanced during Thursday afternoon/evening, however most models indicate the heaviest rainfall will occur off the coast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
239. HadesGodWyvern
09:51 GMT le 01 février 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST February 1 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 20.2S 172.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southerly at 20 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation

Organization started to deteriorate significantly as of midday today. Deep convection has been detached from the low level circulation center due to the influence of strong shear. System is moving towards the south. Sea surface temperature around 26C

Global models are moving the system to the southwest with little intensification. This might be due to extratropical transition.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
238. HadesGodWyvern
07:44 GMT le 01 février 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST February 1 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (982 hPa) located at 27.0S 107.8E or 630 km west southwest of Carnarvon and 700 km west northwest of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 28.5S 109.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.3S 111.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.4S 116.3E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Position determined from animated visible imagery. The system has retained good organization of the cloud field but cloud top temperatures are noticeably warmer than yesterday and curvature is gradually decreasing. Wraps of 0.6 to 0.8 were obtained on VIS and IR imagery over the last six hours. There have been no AMSU passes in the last 8 hours. ADT is at CI=3.2.

Final intensity estimate is set at 45 knots 10-min mean allowing for a slow weakening trend following the period of intensification overnight.

Shear has increased to 10 knots from the NW and the upper cloud is beginning to shift southeastwards away from the low level circulation center. Shear will increase over the next 24 hours as the system interacts with mid-latitude westerlies. Although waters off the west coast are significantly warmer than usual they are still marginal for tropical cyclones and this has been reflected in warmer cloud top temperatures. Waters close to the coast are warmer than off the coast but by the time the system reaches these waters the system will be experiencing strong shear. All model guidance is consistent with a weakening trend through the next 24 hours.

Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There are no indications that gales could be maintained through to landfall, however upper remnants of the system will interact with the mid-latitude trough and may contribute to gusty fire weather conditions in northern parts of the southern western Australia. Depending on the speed of movement over the next 24 hours rainfall in southern parts of the southern western Australia may be enhanced during Thursday afternoon/evening, however most models indicate the heaviest rainfall will occur off the coast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
237. HadesGodWyvern
06:15 GMT le 01 février 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST February 1 2012
================================================= ===

A developing low pressure system, 997 hPa, is located in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria near 15.4S 140.9E. The low is expected to move slowly east over the Cape York Peninsula on Thursday and continue to move east out of the Northern Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Thursday: Low
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
236. HadesGodWyvern
06:15 GMT le 01 février 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST February 2012
===================================

The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea and is expected to develop further over the next few days. A weak low currently sits over eastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters and is forecast to move east into the Coral Sea late in the week. The low is forecast to develop further over the Coral Sea and continue to move east, away from the Queensland coast, into the weekend. If this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any significant impacts along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: Moderate
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
235. HadesGodWyvern
02:21 GMT le 01 février 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
12:00 PM FST February 1 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 18.3S 172.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observation.

Organization has improved in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. System lies south of 250 hpa ridge axis, downstream of an upper trough and just north of the 250 hpa jet. Depression lies in a region of low to moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 27-28C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap yields. Final Dvorak based on DT. MET and PT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24hrs

Global models are intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards then southwest.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
234. HadesGodWyvern
02:14 GMT le 01 février 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
9:00 AM WST February 1 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (979 hPa) located at 26.0S 107.6E or 620 km west southwest of Carnarvon and 760 km west northwest of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S/0.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 28.0S 108.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.0S 110.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.5S 114.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 120.2E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Subjective Dvorak DTs have been hovering between 3.0 and 3.5 for a considerable time now. For a period overnight the DTs clearly reached 3.5 and 50 kn winds were observed on the ASCAT pass at 14Z. Since that time there has been a slight decrease in the organization and degree of curvature. Although DTs of 3.5 can be obtained on some recent images most analyses produce DT3.0. ADT went back up to CI 4.1 overnight when it detected an eye scene and although raw DTs are down at 2.3-2.8 over the last 6 hours the CI is still coming down from the overnight peak and is at 3.8. AMSU intensity estimates at 19Z were around 65 knots 10-min mean.

Final intensity estimate is 50 knots 10-min mean.

Although Iggy is now in a climatologically unfavorable region for TCs, Sea surface temperatures are 25-26C [warmer than normal], the shear remains low and there is favorable outflow aloft. The low shear is also protecting the core of the cyclone from the dry air at the system's periphery. During Wednesday the convection should struggle as Iggy begins to move over waters less than 24C.

Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There are no indications that gales could be maintained through to landfall.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
233. HadesGodWyvern
21:01 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
6:00 AM FST February 1 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 17.8S 171.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. Cloud tops cooling in the last 6 hours. System lies south of 250 hpa ridge axis, downstream of an upper trough and just north of the 250 hpa jet. Depression lies in a region of low shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.45 wrap yields. Final Dvorak based on DT, MET and PT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 hrs

Global models are intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards then southwest.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
232. HadesGodWyvern
20:55 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
3:00 AM WST February 1 2012
=================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 25.2S 107.5E or 770 km west southwest of Exmouth and 620 km west of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 27.2S 107.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.6S 109.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.0S 112.3E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 117.3E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

TC Iggy was located by microwave and IR imagery which show a well defined eye, albeit with relatively warm cloud tops. Iggy appears to have re-intensified to category 2 intensity [SATCON is 71 knots [1min mean] and Dvorak IR eye DT estimates at 4.5 with CI at 4.0, the intensity at 50 knots. This is based on 1359 ASCAT pass showing a region of 50 knots on eastern and southern flank which may be enhanced by the 12 knot southly motion. Diurnal development is currently at a peak.

Although Iggy is now in a climatologically unfavorable region for TCs, sea surface temperatur are 25-26C [warmer than normal], the shear remains low and there is favorable outflow aloft. The low shear is also protecting the core of the cyclone from the dry air at the system's periphery. Hence weakening is only expected after the diurnally favored period overnight. During Wednesday the convection should struggle as Iggy begins to move over waters less than 24C.

Marginal gales may extend beyond 24h, as suggested by various numerical weather prediction models, albeit limited to sectors assisted initially by synoptic southeasterlies south of the system and then on the northern side as the system takes a more eastwards track. Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There are no indications that gales could be maintained through to landfall.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
231. HadesGodWyvern
14:28 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET January 31 2012
==================================

Extra-Tropical Depression 08 - Ex-FUNSO:
===========================================
At 09Z :
Position : 35.7S 51.6E
Movement East southeast at 4 kt.
Maximum winds 20 kt, up to 30kt in the southeastern semi-circle due the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure (cf. ASCAT data at 04.59Z).

Ex-FUNSO is forecast to fill up by the middle of the week and to track slowly eastward.

Area of disturbed weather over the Mozambique Channel:
================================================= ==

Last animated satellite pictures show a low level circulation exposed East of the convective cluster
located near 21.0S 42.6E at 09Z. This small low hugs the west coast of Malagasy. It tracked at about
11kt southward during the past 12 hours. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 20 knots.

Associated convective activity is fluctuating, with a moderate convective activity located in the eastern part of the channel between 19.0S and 27.0S. Available numerical weather prediction models outcomes at 00:00 AM UTCZ analyze this low close without developing it significantly. For the next few days, this low is forecast to track south-westward on the northern face of the subtropical ridge, without significant deepening. Indeed the lower levels supply remain marginal on the two sides of the low and the low is forecast to undergo a moderate Easterly vertical wind shear, on the northern edge of the upper level anticyclone.

There is no other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is poor.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
230. HadesGodWyvern
14:21 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
0:00 AM FST February 1 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 15.2S 167.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Deep convection near the system center has increased in the last 12 hours with cloud tops cooling. System lies under an upper diffluent region and to the east of an upper trough. Depression lies in a region of moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap. DT= 2.0, MET and PT agrees. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 hrs.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
229. HadesGodWyvern
13:35 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 PM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (984 hPa) located at 23.9S 108.3E or 640 km west southwest of Exmouth and 555 km west northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 26.1S 107.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.0S 108.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.0S 111.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 116.0E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

TC Iggy was located by microwave and visible imagery which show a symmetric system under low vertical wind shear. Intensity of 45 knots based on 0134UTC ASCAT pass showing region of 40 knots on eastern flank. Current SSE motion has increased to 12 knots which will support some enhancement of winds on eastern side. Dvorak FT maintained at 3.0 based on adjusted MET although IR eye pattern gives DT as high as 4.0 [DG surround, LG/OW elongated eye] which would support a higher FT. Cloud tops have warmed on recent images indicative of weakening convection as the system moves over cooler water. SATCON is 59 knots [1min mean] biased towards AMSU estimates of 63 kn although FOV=3.

Imagery suggest drier air to the south and west however the core of the cyclone should remain protected until an increased shear increases. Interaction with a passing mid latitude trough to the south should provide a period of enhanced outflow on the southern side and may encourage regeneration of some convection overnight during the diurnally favorable period.

During Wednesday Iggy is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water and shear gradually increases. However marginal gales may extend into 24-36 hours forecast period, as suggested by various numerical weather prediction, albeit limited to sectors assisted by synoptic southeasterlies south of the system and then on northern side as the system takes a more southeast track.

Models show good agreement on the track, initially to the SSW for the next 12-18 hours and then with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
228. HadesGodWyvern
08:32 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 19.9S 172.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Convection has decreased significantly in the past 12 hours. Organization is poor for the past 12 hours. This system lies in a region of high shear and is moving into an area of cooler sea surface temperature.

Global models move the system further south and is weakening it.

This will be the last advisory on this system
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
227. HadesGodWyvern
08:29 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (998 hPa) located at 15.4S 165.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Deep convection near the system center has increased in the last 12 hours With cloud tops cooling. System lies under an upper diffluent region And to the east of an upper trough. Depression lies in a region of Moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer Mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap, thus yields Dt= 2.0, met and pt agrees. Ft based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 hrs.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
226. HadesGodWyvern
07:07 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (985 hPa) located at 22.6S 108.6E or 570 km west of Exmouth and 570 km west northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
60 NM from the center in northern quadrants
100 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 24.5S 107.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 26.7S 107.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 28.4S 109.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.2S 113.1E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Deep convection reduced over night and this morning's visible imagery shows limited deep convection near the center despite low shear. Organization is good but the convective signature relatively weak. The ASCAT pass at 0134 shows limited gales with winds up to 40 knots. Given the system is weakening and is not likely to have very strong wind gradients ASCAT is likely to be capturing close to the maximum winds.

Banding eye analyses are yielding DT 3.0 but in contrast using enhanced infrared eye analyses on the weak eye feature evident during the morning yields DTs of 4 or 4.5. ADT is running at around 3.0 and no AMSU estimate has been available since the 17Z pass. Final intensity estimate is set at 40 knots 10-min mean.

Shear is currently very low, which is likely why the system has shown such good organization in recent hours despite a relative lack of deep convection, however the shear is forecast to increase overnight. Interaction with a passing mid latitude trough to the south should provide a period of enhanced outflow on the southern side and may encourage regeneration of some convection overnight during the diurnally favorable period. For this reason a relatively slow weakening trend is forecast. Gales may continue on the southern side for a period after the system has weakened below TC intensity due to interaction with a high pressure system building in from the southwest.

Good agreement between the models on the track with majority of models taking the remnant system towards the west coast from Wednesday. Minority of models have the system weakening sufficiently to be steered off to the west. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa. There is some discrepancy in the sea surface temperature analyses available from different sources but by Wednesday the sea surface temperatures should also be forcing a strong weakening trend.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
225. HadesGodWyvern
05:41 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST January 31 2012
===================================

The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea and is expected to develop further over the next few days. A weak low currently sits over western Cape York Peninsula and is forecast to move east into the Coral Sea later in the week. Further development is likely while the low is forecast to continue moving east across the Coral Sea. If this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any significant impacts along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
224. HadesGodWyvern
02:55 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
12:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 19.0S 173.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Convection remains persistent but displaced to the east of the low level circulation center. Overall organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Depression lies downstream of 250hpa trough and under the left hand entrance of the jet. System lies in an area of low to moderate shear and is moving into a region of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Global models move the system south-southeast then southwest with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
223. HadesGodWyvern
02:51 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
12:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (998 hPa) located at 15.3S 164.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Depression lies in a region of low to moderate shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
222. HadesGodWyvern
01:20 GMT le 31 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 AM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (984 hPa) located at 21.8S 109.4E or 490 km west of Exmouth and 555 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 23.4S 108.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.6S 107.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 28.2S 109.5E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 27.3S 110.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Deep convection has reduced over night and this morning's visible imagery shows limited deep convection near the center despite low shear. Organization is good but the convective signature relatively weak.

Position determined from microwave, animated IR and latest VIS imagery. Excellent microwave fix at 2257Z gives high confidence in position.Curved band wrap of 0.6 to 0.7 consistently obtained over IR imagery 1730-2230Z. MET is 2.0 based on a weakening trend and PAT = 2.5. FT is set at 3.0 and as FT has been lower than CI for over 6 hours CI is now dropped to 3.0. ADT is running at around 2.6-2.8. Latest [17Z] SATCON is 51 knots 1-min mean, with AMSU dominating that estimate at 58 knots 1-min mean. FOV for AMSU was 28 [poor] and a bias correction was applied.

Final intensity estimate set to 45 knots 10-min mean.

Good agreement between the models on the track with majority of models taking the remnant system toward the west coast from Wednesday. Minority of models have the system weakening sufficiently to be steered off to the west. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa. There is some discrepancy in the SST analyses available from different sources but by Wednesday the sea surface temperatures should also be forcing a strong weakening trend.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
221. HadesGodWyvern
22:20 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
6:00 AM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 18.0S 171.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Convection remains persistent for the last 24 hours. Overall organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Depression lies downstream of 250hpa trough and under the left hand entrance of the jet. System lies in an area of low to moderate shear and is moving into a region of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it south-southeast.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
220. HadesGodWyvern
22:16 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
6:00 AM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (999 hPa) re-located near 15.0S 162.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent trough. Depression lies in a region of low shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
219. HadesGodWyvern
22:07 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
3:00 AM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (981 hPa) located at 21.1S 109.9E or 445 km west northwest of Exmouth and 570 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 22.4S 108.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 24.2S 107.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 27.1S 107.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 27.3S 110.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and IR. Shear remains low, and there is evidence that strengthening upper level outflow has led to a slight intensification over the past 12 hours. Additionally TC Iggy is now moving into less disturbed waters, and convection has become symmetric about a large diameter eye.

DT is at 3.0 with a curved band wrap of 0.6. SATCON has a 51 kn one minute intensity and CIMSS AMSU has a 58 kn one minute intensity. As such the intensity is placed at 50 knots 10 minute mean.

Almost all models have come into line on forecast track over the next 48 to 72 hours, and the consensus has been followed here. Some models indicate further intensification, however this forecast holds the intensity at 50 knots, and then begins a weakening trend [due to low sea surface temperatures] prior to the system falling below TC intensity and taking a more easterly track.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
218. HadesGodWyvern
16:49 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
0:00 AM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 17.6S 171.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Convection remains persistent for the last 12 hours. Overall organization has not improved for the past 12 hours. Depression lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow aloft. System lies in an area of moderate shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Global models are maintaining a southeastward track with gradually intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
217. HadesGodWyvern
16:45 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
0:00 AM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 168.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 6 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Convection remains to the east of the low level circulation center. System lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow region aloft. Depression lies in a region of moderate to high vertical shear. Sea surface temperatures is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
216. HadesGodWyvern
13:38 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET January 30 2012
======================================

Extra-Tropical Depression 08 - Ex-FUNSO:
At 1000Z : Position : 35.1S/50.8E
Movement East-South-East at 11 kt.
Maximum winds (/10 mn) : 30 kt, up to 40kt in the

southern semi-circle due the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure (cf. ASCAT data at 05.20Z).

Ex-FUNSO is forecast to fill up by the middle of the week and to track slowly Eastward.

System #2
-----------

Area of disturbed weather over the North of the Mozambique Channel:

Last animated satellite pictures suggest a small low level circulation exposed East of the convective
cluster located near 16.6S 44.1E at 10.00Z. This small low hugs the coast near Besalampy. It tracked at about 6kt south-westward during the past 24 hours. MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 20kt. Associated convective activity is fluctuating, with a convective cluster north of Juan de Nova, and moderatly rainy and stormy activity near the Comoros islands.

European NWP models outcomes at 00Z (ECMWF, ALADIN, ARPEGE, UKMO) don't analyze easily this small low close to the land. They analyze a broad area of low pressure over Madagascar. They are in better agreement at h+24 and forecast the deepening of a small low within this broad area, off Morondava. For the next few days, this low is forecast to track south-westward on the northern face of the subtropical ridge, without significant deepening. Indeed the lower levels supply is forecast to become marginal on the two sides of the low on and after day 2. And the low is forecast to undergo a moderate Easterly vertical wind shear, on the northern edge of the upper level anticyclone.

Within the next 24 hours, rainy and thundery activity should remain significant on the Comoros
islands and the North of Madagascar.

There is no other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is poor.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
215. HadesGodWyvern
13:34 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
9:00 PM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (974 hPa) located at 20.4S 110.2E or 440 km west northwest of Exmouth and 610 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 21.4S 109.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 23.0S 108.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5S 107.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 27.2S 109.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery, visible and infrared. Shear remains low, and there is evidence that strengthening upper level outflow has led to a slight intensification over the past 12 hours. Additionally TC Iggy is now moving into less disturbed waters, and convection has become symmetric about a large diameter eye.

DT is at 3.5 with a curved band wrap of 0.8. SATCON has a 61 kn one minute intensity - in part based on a microwave estimate of 65 kn one minute winds at 06z. As such the intensity is placed at 55 knots 10 minute mean.

Almost all models have come into line on forecast track over the next 48 to 72 hours, and the consensus has been followed here. Some models indicate further intensification, however this forecast holds the intensity at 55 knots, and then begins a weakening trend [due to low SSTs] prior to the system falling below TC intensity and taking a more easterly track.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
214. HadesGodWyvern
09:01 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 170.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots. The depression is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent for the last 12 hours. Overall organization has not improved for the past 12 hours. Depression lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow aloft. System lies in an area of moderate shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
213. HadesGodWyvern
08:55 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (1000 hPa) located at 15.9S 167.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. THe depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Convection remains to the east of the low level circulation center. System lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow region aloft. Depression lies in a region of moderate to high vertical shear. sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
212. HadesGodWyvern
07:07 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (980 hPa) located at 19.9S 110.1E or 475 km west northwest of Exmouth and 660 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 109.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.9S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.4S 106.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.9S 107.9E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and VIS. Shear remains low. DT remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.7, PAT agrees, so FT and CI is held at 3.0.

TC Iggy is maintaining a westerly movement. General consensus is for a southwesterly track over the next 48 hours. By Wednesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperatures and may be experiencing stronger wind shear, causing Iggy to weaken below cyclone intensity.

It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
211. HadesGodWyvern
02:58 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
12:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (999 hPa) located at 16.4S 166.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to the east of the low level circulation center. System lies just east of an upper trough and under 250hpa diffluent region in a moderate to high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into the region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and move it southeast.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
210. HadesGodWyvern
01:16 GMT le 30 janvier 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 AM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (977 hPa) located at 19.8S 110.6E or 435 km west northwest of Exmouth and 650 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Iggy which has been moving very slowly over the last 24 hours, has recently started moving to the west. With this recent westward movement, gales are no longer expected to affect mainland locations of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to take a southwest track over the next 48 hours, before weakening below cyclone intensity during Wednesday.

Tides, however, will be higher than expected along the upper west coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Coral Bay has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.2S 110.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.2S 108.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.4S 107.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.6S 108.1E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and enhance infrared. Although shear remains low, there has been little sign of intensification. DT remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.6, PAT agrees, so FT and CI is held at 3.0. CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate at 20Z indicated 57 knots 1-min, ADT is now at 51 knots 1-min and SATCON 57 knots 1-min, all showing a recent decreasing trend. Final intensity estimate remains at 45 knots 10-min mean.

TC Iggy has remained near stationary for much of the last 24 hours but a westerly movement has recently commenced. General consensus is for a southwesterly track over the next 48 hours, taking it over cooler waters with weakening expected. By late Tuesday and early Wednesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperature and may be experiencing stronger wind shear.

It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is very unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151

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