January 1 2012 - March 1 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 20:12 GMT le 31 décembre 2011

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD



------------------------------------------------- --- ----

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W - 1004 hPa



-------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Jaunary

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

------------------------------------------------- --

=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.Jasmine - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)
13F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
05U.NONAME

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)


------------------------------------------------- ---


==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

------------------------------------------------- -----

==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.Giovanna - 932 hPa
10R.Hilwa - 993 hPa
11R.IRINA - 985 hPa
12R.NONAME - 996 hPa

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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST January 21 2012
=========================

There are no significant lows in the Western Region. The monsoon trough is expected to become active and one or two significant lows are likely to develop within the trough by Monday. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during next week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be directly affected.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:30 pm CST January 21 2012
================================================= ===

The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas and will move slowly south over the weekend. A weak low pressure system has formed in the northwest Gulf of Carpanteria, along the trough, and is expected to move west toward the Timor Sea over the next few days and may develop further.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (986 hPa) located at 20.6S 63.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 to 80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-cirlce extending up to 110 to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.3S 63.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.8S 63.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 30.3S 65.7E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
72 HRS: 35.4S 77.7E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern with a slight deterioration over the last 6 hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion and extratropicalization (with re-deepening expected now).

Latest CIMSS shear analysis show a constant northwesterly shear at about 15 kt over the system.

Rodrigues island is now out of the convective mass associated with Ethel.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.1S 37.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 to 70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 38.2E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 38.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.6S 40.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Still some doubt about the current strength of the system. Some infrared imagery before 0:00 AM UTC show an intermittent ragged eye pattern with very cold cloud top so in line with ADT and microwave imagery that depicts a wider eye pattern than previously (although a weakness may exist in the southern eyewall), the previous intensity is maintained.

Latest available numerical weather prediction models suggest now that the system is now embedded within contradictory steering flow. They all agree to not take again significantly the system westwards. As the subtropical ridge weakens southwards, the movement of Funso should resume today on a east to southeastwards component under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the southeast of the system and will result on a polewards motion for the system. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a new zonal track towards that should bring the system over the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane. An alternate scenario, suggest by the ECMWF ensemble forecast could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the southeast of the system and a continuing polewards track at long range that will remain oversea.

As long as the system move little, the weakening of the oceanic energetic potential and potentially on going inner core process are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. With the resume of the movement, the system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly. Ocean heat content map suggest that the system could move over very warm water around 20.0S. The ocean heat content should be lower after that if the system moves closer to the Mozambican coasts as expected. Therefore, the peak intensity is sooner and a little bit lower than the previous forecast in agreement or just above the guidance.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast at short range. However with the actual growing trend of the inner core seen on microwave imagery, it is likely that damaging winds has reached the shore near Quelimane.

Inhabitants of this sector, but in a general way all inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
9:00 AM FST January 21 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1004 hPa) located at 15.0S 180.0 is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared/visible and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. TD 06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, under 250 HPA ridge and east of upper trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Most models have picked the system and slowly move it southeast with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cylone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.3S 37.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
65 to 70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 37.7E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.0S 38.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.3S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 20.7S 40.3E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

There is some doubt about still classified Funzo as a tropical cyclone. Latest microwave imagery suggest an eyewall replacement cycle although it is not clear at this time. Intensity is hold the same at this time.
Last visible pictures show a warm point and microwaves confirm the very small size banding eye structure of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track of the system within the next 48 hours, at first rather slow during the next 24 hours, and after east to southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system.

Beyond 48 hrs, numerical weather prediction models are more dispersed. Deterministic models are in rather good agreement for a global re-curvement south to southwestward, but ensemble prediction suggest a south to south southeast track. Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

For the next 24 hours, proximity of the coast of Mozambique and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 24 hours, system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast at short range but the regions of Quelimane and Beira should undergo heavy rains during the next 24 hours at least.

Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
22:00 AM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 19.9S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.6S 63.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.1S 62.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.2S 63.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 33.3S 71.4E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

System is currently near its closest point approach of Rodrigues at about 75 km to the east southeast. Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern with no major change during the last 6 hours although some hint of a warm core on latest infrared imagery.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion and extratropicalization.

Within the next 18/24 hours, environment remains rather good. Beyond, system should begin to under
Go northwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of an upper level trough. Latest CIMSS shear analysis show that it has began to turn to the northwest and strengthen a little bit (15 knots).

Rodrigues island seems to have experienced the most significant weather this evening with recorded gust at 70 kt at Pointe Canon and mean 10 min winds at 49 knots recorded at Plaine Corail at 1500 PM UTC.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.2S 38.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
12 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
65 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semicircle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 37.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 37.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.2S 39.1E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 20.1S 40.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Last visible pictures show a warm point and micro waves confirm the very small size banding eye structure of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track of the system within the next 48 hours, at first west to southwestward during the next 24 hours under the steering influence of the mid-tropospheric ridge south of Madagascar, and after east to southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system.

Beyond 48 hours, numerical weather prediction models are more dispersed. Deterministic models are in rather good agreement for a global re-curvement south to south-westward, but ensemble prediction suggest a south to south-south-east track. Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

For the nect 24 hours, proximity of the coast of Mozambique and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 24 hours, system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast but the regions of Guelimane and Beira should undergo heavy rains during the next 24 hours at least.

Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
16:00 AM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 19.4S 64.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 64.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 22.2S 63.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.1S 63.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 30.2S 66.8E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================

Intensity of the system has remain stationary. According to the last satellite pictures, it is tracking southward during the past six hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a south southwestwards to southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion. On this track the system is forecast to approach closest to Rodrigues island tonight near 18 hours.

Within the next 18-24 hours, environment remains rather good. Beyond, system should begin to undergo northwesterly vertical wind shear behind a upper level trough.

The system is forecast to move near Rodrigues close to its peak of intensity.

Cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the beginning of the next week.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
Cyclone Warning: Class 3 is in force for Rodriques Island


Upon the issuance of a cyclone warning class lll

Complete all preparatory measures.

  • Fix shutters.
  • Secure doors and windows.
  • Store loose articles.
  • Avoid areas prone to storm surges and flooding.
  • Shelter domestic animals.
  • Secure vehicles.

    Those in insecure dwellings, move as early as possible, to cyclone refugee centre with your emergency kit.

  • Avoid going outside.
  • Monitor closely cyclone bulletins on Radio/TV.
  • Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
    CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
    10:00 AM RET January 20 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (972 hPa) located at 18.3S 38.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/12 HRS

    Hurricane Force Winds
    =====================
    15 NM radius from the center

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    30 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    55 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    65 NM radius from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.5S 38.0E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    24 HRS: 18.8S 37.5E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 19.2S 38.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    72 HRS: 20.1S 39.8E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The small eye has disappeared on the last satellite pictures.

    Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement within the next 24 hours. System is expected to keep on tracking slowly globally southwestwards on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge.

    Numerical weather prediction models diverge then strongly. A near-equatorial mid-level ridge (cf z500) is expected to build on the north side of the system and should steers it east southeastwards within the next 36 to 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, another mid-tropospheric ridge building in its southeast should steer the system southwestwards.

    Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

    For the next 48 hours, proximity of the coast and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 48 hours, system should encounter better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly beyond 48 hours.

    Even this scenario is currently considered by RSMC la reunion as the most likely, the system should within Saturday 21 and Sunday 22 get closer of the Mozambican coasts near Guelimane or Beira regions.. with a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time. Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
    FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    10:00 AM RET January 20 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 18.4S 64.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

    Storm Force Winds
    ================
    20 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    50 NM radius from the center extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    90 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 19.6S 63.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 21.1S 63.1E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 25.0S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 29.8S 63.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a south southwestwards to southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion. On this track the system is forecast to move near Rodrigues island tonight in about 18 hours.

    Within the next 24 hours, environment remains rather favorable for slight development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve during the next 24 hours. The system is forecast to move near Rodrigues close to its peak of intensity.

    Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
    CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
    4:00 AM RET January 20 2012
    =======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (972 hPa) located at 18.2S 39.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/12 HRS

    Hurricane Force Winds
    =====================
    15 NM radius from the center

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    30 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    55 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    65 NM radius from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.9S 38.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    24 HRS: 19.2S 37.5E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 18.8S 37.7E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    72 HRS: 19.9S 40.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Funso intensifies now rapidly and shows a small eye on infra-red imagery. Last 3 average t-number is higher (near 5.5-) but mentioned ft is limited by Dvorak constraints and agrees with an average over the last 6 hours. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement within the next 24 hours. System is expected to keep on tracking globally southwestwards on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge.

    Numerical weather prediction models diverge then strongly. Two mid-levels ridge (cf z500) are expected to build on the both north and south sides of the system. The northern near-equatorial ridge should steers the system eastwards and the subtropical ridge steers it westwards.

    Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one. Following this scenario, Funso should track slowly from Saturday 21/1200 PM UTC to Sunday 22/1200 PM UTC. During this slow motion over the same waters could be an inhibiting factor. On and after Sunday 22/1200 PM UTC, system should be steered by the aforementioned near-equatorial ridge, it is expected to adopt a new track eastwards then southeastwards. Being back over high heat oceanic contents system is expected to begin a new intensifying phase. On and after Monday 23/1200 PM UTC, Funso is expected to re-curve southwestwards undergoing the steering influence of a new subtropical ridge transiting south of the channel. Forecast environmental conditions over this track are very favorable for further regular intensification.

    Even this scenario is currently considered by RSMC la reunion as the most likely, the system should within Saturday 21 and Sunday 22 get closer of the Mozambican coasts near Quelimane or Beira regions with a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time ...Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
    FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    4:00 AM RET January 20 2012
    =======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (988 hPa) located at 18.2S 65.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 11 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

    Storm Force Winds
    ================
    20 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    60 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 19.3S 64.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 20.4S 63.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 23.8S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 29.3S 63. E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards to south-southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards re-curving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues island Friday late or Saturday early.

    Within the next 24 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to its peak of intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

    Vertical northwesterly wind hear, cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
    TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNSO (08-20112012)
    22:00 PM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Funso (990 hPa) located at 18.2S 39.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    40 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    60 NM radius from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.4S 38.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 18.9S 37.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 18.4S 37.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    72 HRS: 18.7S 39.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Cloud pattern has consistently improved along the day with very deep convection flaring and wrapping around the center. Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36-48 hours. On the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a eastwards to southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast before a new westwards turn at the end of the forecast period under th e steering influence of a subtropical ridge that should build south of the channel.

    Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. The intensification process is held off between 36-72 hours as the system should move little near the Mozambican coasts. This slow motion over the same waters could be an inhibiting factors.

    Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region with a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time ...Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
    FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    22:00 PM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (990 hPa) located at 17.4S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 13 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

    Storm Force Winds
    ================
    20 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    60 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.3S 64.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 19.3S 64.1E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 22.6S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 25.8S 62.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    1618 PM UTC F18 microwave imagery confirms the improving of satellite feature. Ethel keeps on intensifying.

    Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards to south-southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards recurving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues island Friday late or Saturday early.

    Within the next 36 to 48 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

    Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Cyclone Warning: Class 2 is in force for Rodriques Island


    During a cyclone warning class ll

    Verify that your emergency kit contains all essential items

  • Store sufficient amount of drinking water
  • Continue to monitor cyclone bulletins on Radio/TV.
  • Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
    TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNSO (08-20112012)
    16:00 PM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Funso (994 hPa) located at 17.8S 40.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    30 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    50 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.3S 39.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 18.7S 38.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 18.6S 37.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    72 HRS: 18.5S 38.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Cloud pattern has consistently improved along the day with very deep convection flaring and wrapping around the center. Latest high resolution imagery depict an hint of a warm spot in the central dense overcast. Consequently, intensification could be stronger than said in the current forecast.

    Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36 to 48 hours on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a eastwards to southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast before a new westwards turn at the end of the forecast period under the steering influence of a
    subtropical ridge that should build south of the channel.

    Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. The intensification process is held off between 36 to 72 hours as the system should move little near the Mozambican coasts. This slow motion over the same waters could be an inhibiting factors.

    Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region ... With a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time...inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
    TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    16:00 PM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (991 hPa) located at 16.1S 66.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    40 to 50 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    60 to 70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 17.4S 65.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 18.6S 64.6E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 21.4S 63.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 24.5S 62.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    After a slight decrease in the overall cloud pattern during midday, the cloud pattern is now improving again. AMSUB microwave imagery also suggest that the small inner core structure is still improving.

    Ethel made a harp south southwest turn, a little bit sooner than previously expected. Consequently, the forecast track moved eastwards in agreement with latest ECMWF output. Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards to south southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards re-curving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues island early Saturday morning.

    Within the next 36 to 48 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

    Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
    DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08-20112012
    10:00 AM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08R (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 40.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    30 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 17.8S 40.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    24 HRS: 18.1S 38.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    48 HRS: 18.3S 37.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 18.7S 38.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The system is close to moderate tropical storm strength. Latest satellite imagery depict an overall improving organisation with recently some convectively bands wraping in the northern semi-circle. Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) and also AVNO are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36 to 48 hours on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast.

    Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature.

    Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region ... With a potential direct impact that could not be excluded at this time.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on Tropical Depression 08R will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
    TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    10:00 AM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (994 hPa) located at 14.7S 67.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    30 to 40 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    60 to 70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 15.8S 65.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 17.6S 64.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    48 HRS: 20.5S 63.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    72 HRS: 24.0S 62.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    An irregular 2 degrees diameter central dense overcast with very cold top associated has maintained over the system since 2100 PM UTC. Microwave imagery show an improve organization of the low level circulation center with a developing small inner core. Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards recurving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues Island Friday night or early Saturday morning.

    Within the next 48 to 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

    Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system and make it lose tropical characteristics at the end of The period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646


    Image from Réunion Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (METEO FRANCE)©
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20112012
    4:00 AM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (998 hPa) located at 14.4S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

    ---corrected location---
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
    PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20112012
    4:00 AM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08R (1001 hPa) located at 17.7S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18 HRS

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.1S 40.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 18.4S 39.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
    48 HRS: 18.5S 37.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    72 HRS: 18.9S 38.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Convection has built near the center during the last hours. 1834 PM UTC ASCAT swath shows now maximum winds at about 20-25 knots within a well defined clockwise circulation.

    Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) and also avno are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 48 to 60 hours and then a southeastwards track. Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the Both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperatures, only the vicinity of the coast during the first 48 hours may limitate the rate of intensification.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
    DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20112012
    4:00 AM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (998 hPa) located at 13.9S 68.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    30 NM radius from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 15.8S 65.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    24 HRS: 16.8S 64.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    48 HRS: 19.2S 63.5E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 23.0S 62.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west southwestwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Low level vortex is located under a the small central dense overcast

    Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards re-curving motion. Within the next 48 to 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 07R will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
    PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20112012
    22:00 PM RET January 18 2012
    =======================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.9S 68.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18 HRS

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 15.0S 66.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 15.9S 64.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    48 HRS: 18.1S 62.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    72 HRS: 20.8S 61.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west southwestwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Low level vortex is located under the eastern edge of the small curved band.

    Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 3 days then a southwards recurving motion. Within the next 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. Low level equatorward inflow remains rather good but indirect due to the intertropical convergence zone in the north.. Poleward inflow is expected to weaken within Thursday 19th in relationship with a weakening in the subtropical belt but should improve again after that. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system at the end of the period
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    RSMC Reunion
    Tropical Cyclone Outlook
    15:00 RET January 18 2012
    ====================================

    At 1000 AM UTC, low level circulation center is centered near 16.6S 41.4E, slowly drifting east southeastwards. Surface low pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa (1005.7 hPa at Juan de Nova at 0900 AM UTC). 0603Z ASCAT swath shows maximum winds at about 15/20 kt within a well defined clockwise circulation.

    Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to TAU 60 to 72h and then a south-eastwards track. American numerical weather prediction models NOGAPS and GFS and the consensus CONW forecast a more quickly track towards the south in a first time then a West-South-Westwards track more closer to the African coastline.

    Over all this aforementioned tracks, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflows on the both sides , weak vertical wind shear and a good upper level divergence , well sustained by 2 upper level outflow channels. Heat Potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. Convective activity is currently not consolidated enough near the center for rapid intensification within the next 24 hours but potential for further deepening is good and a system at a significant stage is expected in this area within the next days. Depending of the uncertain future track and more likely intensity, this meteor should concern directly or indirectly Mozambique and western Malagasy coastlines.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
    PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20112012
    16:00 PM RET January 18 2012
    =======================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.1S 69.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 14.1S 67.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 15.7S 65.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
    48 HRS: 18.0S 64.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    72 HRS: 20.6S 62.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west-south-westwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Low level vortex is however partially exposed on the eastern edge of the small curved band.

    Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 3 days then a southwards re-curving motion. Within the next 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. Low level equatorward inflow remains rather good but indirect due to the intertropical convergence zone in the north.. Poleward inflow is expected to weaken within Thursday 19th in relationship with a weakening in the subtropical belt but should improve again after that. In the upper levels, system takes currently benefit from 2 good outflow channels. The equatorward one is expected to progressively dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours but the poleward one should improve day after day. Vertical easterly windshear remains weak to moderate within the next 30 hours.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
    ZONE PERTURBEE 07-20112012
    10:00 AM RET January 18 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of disturbed weather 07R (1001 hPa) located at 12.9S 70.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 14.5S 68.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 16.0S 66.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
    48 HRS: 18.5S 64.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 20.6S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Deep convective activity has consolidated near the center within the last 24 hours. The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west-south-westwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 3 days then a southwards re-curving motion. Within the next 60 hours, environment remains favorable for further development.

    Low level equatorward inflow remains very good. Poleward inflow is expected to weaken within the 19 in relationship with a weakening in the subtropical belt but should improve again after that. In the upper levels, system takes currently benefit from 2 good outflow channels. The equatorward one is expected to progressively dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours but the poleward one should improve day after day. Vertical easterly wind shear remains weak to moderate within the next 30 hours.

    CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    RSMC Reunion
    Tropical Cyclone Outlook
    15:00 RET January 17 2012
    ====================================

    Cyclogenesis south of the Chagos archipelago (between 10S-15S and 63E-78E):
    --------------------------------------

    Convection within Intertropical Convergence Zone has concentrated during the next 24 hours into this area; a low can be detected near 9.5S 74.5E with an estimated pressure of 1004 hPa. Low level equatorial convergence is good with a moderate monsoon flow, and a low level ridge keeps in position south of the area for the next 36 hours. Sea surface temperature are favorable, and upper level divergence is good with two outflows channels equatorial and polar present over this area. Numerical weather prediction available develop a quick cyclogenesis on Wednesday with a displacement south-westwards. A significant and potentially quick deepening is possible within a favorable environment on Wednesday.

    Cyclogenesis over the Mozambican channel (between 14S-18S):
    ------------------------------------------------- -

    A cluster has built near the African coast north of 15S since 0:00 AM UTC. Convection has clearly intensify stretching from 10S to 17S east of 44E, with favorable conditions (Sea surface temperature >29, very good upper level divergence under the upper level ridge) with good equatorial inflow with a moderate monsoon flow. the polar inflow is expected to improve with the dissipation of the residual low of ex-Dando inland up to 48 hours. Numerical weather prediction available show a significant development up to this hour. A significant deepening is possible within a favorable environment on Tuesday.

    The potential for the development of a tropical depression becomes fair to good Wednesday south of the Chagos archipelago, and become also fair over the channel on Tuesday.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    There is a chance for another cyclone to form near the 75E region.

    Numerical weather prediction guidance develop significantly a low within the next three days. At present time, a lack of low level convergence over the trade wind side appears to the main inhibiting factor for cyclogenesis. According to available dynamical guidance, this tradewind convergence should improve wednesday associated to a stronger subtropical ridge. If a low level circulation center manages to form by that time, a significant and potentially quick deepening is possible within a favorable environment (Warm sea surface temperature, good upper level divergence with 2 potential outflow channels, low shear)

    For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. The potential becomes fair to good wednesday and thursday south of the Chagos archipelago.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    78. Skyepony (Mod)
    Bye Bye Dando hello 94S..worthy blob of moisture or are they board?
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
    DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER DANDO (06-20112012)
    16:00 PM RET January 16 2012
    =======================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Dando (994 hPa) located at 24.6S 34.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: NIL

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    15 to 20 NM from the affected Mozambican coastline

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ========================
    40 NM from the affected Mozambican coastline

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 23.5S 32.8E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
    24 HRS: 23.0S 31.9E - Se Dissipant

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The system made landfall around 0900 AM UTC over the Mozambican coasts just to the west of Quissico. Currently, the presentation over satellite imagery remains pretty well impressive.

    During the next 24 hours, the potential for heavy rains continues over the affected areas of Mozambique, near the residual low level vortex and also in the coastal areas between Inhambane and Maputo in the low level convergence/confluence between the low level circulation center and the trade winds. 24 hours rain rate in the 100 to locally 150 mm are still possible.

    LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646


    Dando
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
    DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE DANDO (06-20112012)
    10:00 AM RET January 16 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression Dando (990 hPa) located at 25.0S 35.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 14 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: NIL

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    35 NM and 60 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ========================
    40 NM from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 115 NM in the southwestern quadrant

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 23.8S 33.8E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
    24 HRS: 23.2S 32.6E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Latest satellite and microwave fix show that the system temporarily accelerated earlier this morning on a due northwesterly track that reminds of Tropical Cyclone Favio track in year 2007 a few degrees to the south.

    Time of landfall is now close and should be done within the next 3 to 4 hours near the city of Guissico (an area rarely affected directly by cyclone tracks) Dando still keeps subtropical characteristics (clouds tops are relatively warm, fluctuating wrapping convection). 37 ghz microwave imagery still depict an excellent low level organization with an eye like feature. Winds structure remains highly asymmetric. According to ASCAT data of last night and current motion, it is estimated that strong winds in the 40-45 knots range are present within the southwestern semi-circle. Much weaker winds (barely 30 kt) should occur in the northern semi-circle.

    Currently, most of significant associated weather remains offshore but is very close to affect the coastal areas between Xai-Xai and Quissico. Strong winds (gusts close to 110-120 km/h) are expected, mainly west of landfall area. Heavy rains with 24hr rain rate in the order of 100-150 mm are expected within the affected areas.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
    DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE DANDO (06-20112012)
    4:00 AM RET January 16 2012
    =======================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression Dando (994 hPa) located at 26.1S 36.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: NIL

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    35 NM and 60 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ========================
    60 NM from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 24.9S 34.8E - 45 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
    24 HRS: 24.0S 33.6E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Animated satellite pictures show that system intensity seems relatively stationary for the last 6 hours. Convection is still wrapping close to the center but remains quite fluctuating. System still keeps subtropical characteristics. 1934 PM UTC ASCAT swath shows that winds field is still asymmetric enough with strongest winds in the southern part of the system. Clouds tops are relatively warm and maximum winds radius is large. For the next 24 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a northwestward track under the steering influence of the low to mid- level high pressures centered over south of South Africa.

    Forecast track has been moved northward in regard of current movement. Consequently, Dando is forecast to make landfall on the coast of the south Mozambique between Chidenguele and Quissico late in the day.

    It is possible that system has not reached its maximum intensity, but now intensification window is short before landfall. This afternoon, heavy rains might begin to occur over the south of Mozambique. Strong winds (gusts over 100 km/h) are expected, mainly south of landfall area. Heavy rains should persist 24 to 48 hours
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
    DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE DANDO (06-20112012)
    22:00 PM RET January 15 2012
    =======================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression Dando (995 hPa) located at 27.0S 37.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: NIL

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    40 NM and 80 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ========================
    60 NM from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 25.7S 34.8E - 45 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
    24 HRS: 24.8S 33.3E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
    48 HRS: 23.7S 31.7E - 20 knots (Depression se comblant)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Subtropical depression 06R has been named Dando at 1500 PM UTC by weather service of Madagascar. System still keeps subtropical characteristics. Winds field is asymmetric, clouds tops are relatively warm and maximum winds radius is large. Last satellite imagery shows that convection is wrapping close to the center with a band closer than one degree. Upper level divergence is good with a well poleward outflow.

    For the next 24 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in fairly good agreement for a west northwestward track under the steering influence of the low to mid-level strengthening high pressures centered over south of South Africa. Consequently, system is forecast to make landfall on the coast of the south Mozambique Monday before the end of the day.

    On its track, system is expected to encounter good environmental conditions for intensification and should take a tropical structure before the landfall: favorable oceanic heat content, weak vertical wind shear and good upper level divergence with persistence of a poleward outflow. From Monday to Tuesday or Wednesday, heavy rains might occur over the south of Mmozambique. Afternoon tomorrow, strong winds (gusts Over 100 km/h) are expected, mainly south of landfall area.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
    DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 06-20112012
    16:00 PM RET January 15 2012
    =======================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression 06R (998 hPa) located at 27.5S 38.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: NIL

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    50 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ========================
    30 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 26.4S 36.0E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
    24 HRS: 25.3S 34.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
    48 HRS: 23.7S 32.0E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Last animated pictures depict convection closer to the center in the northeastern quadrant. ASCAT data at 0700 AM UTC show gale force winds in the southern semi-circle. The wind field structure is asymmetric in relation with the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. System is tracking westward at about 15 knots. For the next 24 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in fairly good agreement for a slight slowdown and a track curving north-westward. Actually system is under the steering influence of the low to mid-level strengthening high pressures centered over south of South Africa.

    Consequently, system is forecast to make landfall on the coast of the south Mozambique by about 24 hours. On its track, system is expected to encounter good environmental conditions for intensification and should take a tropical structure before the landfall: favorable oceanic heat content, good east and south low level convergence, good upper level divergence with an poleward outflow.

    Most of the available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for intensification of the system before its landfall that is currently forecast at the maximum stage of moderate tropical storm in the Bay of Maputo.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
    21:00 PM JST January 14 2012
    =================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 4.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest 10 knots.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    RSMC Reunion
    Tropical Cyclone Outlook
    15:00 PM RET January 14 2012
    ===================================

    Centered at 1100Z : near 25.9S 45.6E
    Motion : West-South-Westward at 13 kt
    MSLP : 1004 hPa

    Maximum Winds : 10-15 kt in the northern semi-circle and 20/25 kt, very locally 30 kt, in the southern one (0549Z Ascat swath shows that winds have also decreased in the southern semi-circle
    since yesterday).

    It seems that various centers still exist and position is approximate. Deep convective activity is mainly located in the east-northeastern part of the system, but now small blows up of convection occur close to the center likely due to temporary weakening of wind-shear (refer to 0600Z CIMSS data). Heaviest rains associated with convection might not concern South of Madagascar.

    Available Numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement about forecast track. Within the next 24 hours, it expected that system keeps a rapid west-southwestward track under the steering influence of low to mid level subtropical high pressures. Throughout this forecast period, marginal ocean heat content (Sea surface temperature near 26°C) and weak to moderate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear might not be favorable for system intensification.

    Beyond, more powerful high pressures rebuilding from the west, system might recurve west northwestward. Before system makes landfall Monday 16 over the southern coasts of Mozambique, environmental conditions should become more favorable (sea surface temperature at about 27°C, weakening vertical wind shear and good upper level divergence). So, it is possible that system seems a tropical structure (refer to FSU cyclone phase evolution analysis and forecasts) and intensifies. Now it is difficult to forecast final intensity for the system, but in regard of a short intensification window, it
    might be limited.

    For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression remains poor. Beyond, it
    becomes fair to good.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
    15:00 PM JST January 14 2012
    =================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 4.0N 106.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    RSMC Reunion
    ======================

    Centerd at 1000Z : near 24.2S 49.4E
    Motion : West-North-Westwards at 12 kt
    MSLP : 1000 hPa

    Maximum Winds : 15-20kt in the northern semi-circle but 25/30 kt in the southern one (0608Z ASCAT swath shows Near Gale Force Winds 30kt in the southern semi-circle within an half-crown extending from 150 km to 300 km radius from the center).

    Deep convective activity organized along peripheral bands in the north-eastern quadrant and locally causes Thundery rain over Reunion's and Mauritius Islands during this afternoon and the following night.

    Rain is expected to concern eastern and southern Malagasy coastline on Saturday 15. System is currently over marginal heat content (sea surface temperature near 26°C) and undergoes a moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear.

    Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast system tracking south of Madagascar at less than 150km from the coastline within the next 24h to 36h without deepen significantly and system is expected to penetrate over the Mozambique Channel late tomorrow. This low is then expected to track westwards towards the southern Mozambique coastline and should make landfall late Monday 16 or early Tuesday 17.

    Before it will reach the Mozambique coastline, energetic potential become stronger over 27-28°C
    sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear is expected to decrease on and after Monday 16. European ECMWF numerical weather prediction model deep this low 36 hours before the expected landfall. It should then turn into Tropical Feature and intensify significantly.

    For the next 48 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression remains poor and
    becomes fair to good from Monday 16.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
    9:00 AM JST January 14 2012
    =================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 4.0N 106.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
    3:00 AM JST January 14 2012
    =================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 3.0N 107.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Japan Meteorological Agency
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
    21:00 PM JST January 13 2012
    =================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 3.0N 107.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
    Tropical Cyclone Outlook
    FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
    2:00 PM WST January 13 2012
    =========================

    The monsoon trough persists just south of Indonesia. A weak low may form on Saturday in the general vicinity of 15S 115E. The low is expected to slowly move to the west southwest, remaining well away from the western Australia mainland, and it is not expected to develop into a cyclone in the next three days.

    Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
    ====================================

    Saturday: Very Low
    Sunday: Very Low
    Monday: Low
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
    Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
    TROPICAL LOW, FORMER HEIDI (07U)
    11:00 PM WST January 12 2012
    =========================

    At 11:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Heidi (996 hPa) located at 22.6S 118.2E or 45 km east northeast of Tom Price and 85 km northeast of Paraburdoo has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

    Ex-Tropical Cyclone Heidi lies over the southern inland Pilbara and continues to move south. Although no longer a tropical cyclone, there is still a risk of HEAVY RAINFALL conducive to FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WINDS to 90 km/h near the center of ex-Tropical Cyclone Heidi as it tracks through the southern Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne during Friday morning. Refer to Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for details.

    Flood Warnings also remain current for the Ashburton and De Grey River Catchments and for the Pilbara Coastal Streams between Port Hedland and Karratha.

    Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
    ================================

    The Cyclone WARNING for inland areas of the central Pilbara to the northeast of Tom Price has been cancelled.

    No further advices will be issued for this system.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
    DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 06-20112012
    16:00 PM RET January 12 2012
    =======================================

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression 06R (997 hPa) located at 25.7S 52.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: NIL

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ========================
    Locally gale force winds 35 knots and very rough to high seas, up to 240 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 25.1S 50.7E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
    24 HRS: 24.5S 48.6E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
    48 HRS: 26.5S 44.7E - 25 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
    72 HRS: 27.5S 38.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Last satellite pictures and ascat data at 0449 AM UTC show a wide low pressure area within exist temporally several centers. There is an asymmetric low level circulation pattern with winds by the order of 15-20 knots in the north-western semi-circle and 25-30 knots in the southeastern semi-circle, locally 35kt, up to 250 NM from the center. Sea surface temperature are near 26°c. There is quite no deep convective activity near the center. Monsoon flow supplies the north-eastern part of the circulation. Low level convergence is good in the south-eastern sector, on the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. Vertical wind shear is weak as the system is now located under the axis of an upper level trough.

    Consequently, convective activity should rebuilt temporally near the center in the next hours. System should move slowly westward over the northern edge of the strengthening subtropical high pressures. So system is forecast to move under the upper level trough, under weak vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours, but monsoon inflow should weaken as the system is shifting towards madagascar. Vertical wind shear is forecast to strengthen again up to 48 hours. Available numerical weather prediction models are fairly good agreement for west and then west south-west track with a very slow filling up. Winds will remain strong in the southern sector of the disturbance due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high anticyclone.

    CURRENT INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
    Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
    TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
    9:00 PM WST January 12 2012
    =========================

    At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (991 hPa) located at 22.1S 118.3E or 200 km south of Port Hedland and 85 km northeast of Tom Price has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    20 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
    15 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
    30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
    15 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

    Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the central inland Pilbara, with gusts to 95 km/h possible close to the cyclone center over areas to the northeast of Tom Price.

    The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to weaken below Tropical Cyclone intensity in the next few hours. However, squally conditions are likely to continue near the center overnight as it tracks into the northeast Gascoyne.

    Heavy rainfall is continuing near the system center, and rainfall totals of 50-100 mm with isolated heavier falls are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

    Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
    ================================

    A Cyclone WARNING is now current for inland areas of the central Pilbara to the northeast of Tom Price.

    Forecast and Intensity
    ======================

    12 HRS: 23.8S 117.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
    24 HRS: 25.6S 117.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
    48 HRS: 28.0S 118.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
    72 HRS: 29.0S 123.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

    Additional Information
    =======================

    Tropical Cyclone Heidi continues to weaken over land. The Port Hedland radar has showed significant weakening over the past couple of hours, and the center is becoming difficult to track.

    The circulation should continue its south southwest track further inland with heavy rainfall expected south and east of the track for the next few days. Squally conditions are likely to continue near the center overnight as it tracks into the northeast Gascoyne.

    The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
    Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
    Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
    TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
    6:00 PM WST January 12 2012
    =========================

    At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.8S 118.3E or 170 km south of Port Hedland and 110 km north northeast of Tom Price has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

    Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the central inland Pilbara, with gusts to 100 km/h possible close to the cyclone center over areas south of Whim Creek extending towards Tom Price.

    The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to be below Tropical Cyclone intensity later this evening. However, squally conditions are likely to continue near the center overnight as it tracks into the northeast Gascoyne.

    Heavy rainfall is continuing near the system center, and rainfall totals of 50-100mm with isolated heavier falls are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

    Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
    ================================

    A Cyclone WARNING is now current for inland areas of the central Pilbara, south of Whim Creek extending towards but not including Tom Price.

    The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
    Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646

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