Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Weather Tracking
2013 Hurricane Season : April Outlook
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 01:33 GMT le 09 avril 2013 +8
We are less than 2 months away from the kickoff of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. With that said, its about time for me to post my tweaked and reanalyzed outlook on what the Hurricane Season may bring this year.


Figure 1. A satellite view of Major Hurricane Sandy over Cuba on October 25, 2012.

~~~~Factors and Predictions~~~~

Climate Pattern (El Nino or La Nina?)
Though some may say that the climate pattern is too uncertain toward whether or not an El Nino might emerge this Summer, it can be noted that the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific have cooled since the start of 2013. This signal shows a significance toward the strength and likelihood of an El Nino event. With a cooling trend in place this would decrease the chance of an El Nino pattern for this Summer.


Figure 2.
April 8th issue of the Global Analysis SST Anomalies from NOAA/NESDIS. Blue represents below average, Red represents above average.

Climate Pattern Forecast for Summer 2013
65% Chance of persisting Neutral conditions
25% Chance of the development of a La Nina
10% Chance of the development of an El Nino

Atmospheric Conditions: Pros & Cons
Though the main factor you can almost point out immediately is Above Average Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's), there is more to it than just warmth of ocean waters. The other conditions, Air Moisture, Upper-Level Winds(Wind Shear), Trade Winds (Yes, there is a difference between Trade Winds and Wind Shear, even though they have similar effects), and last but not least Vertical Instability. These factors are what build seasons up into dangerous and deadly ones, or drive them into the ground to be dismal and quiet. The following is what appears to be the case for what this season's conditions will offer for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic. This year has not only had showed us some warm waters, it has stayed mainly Negative in the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), which typically means a Weaker Icelandic Low and Azores High. This negative phase in the NAO weakens strong steering currents that push huge tropical waves, that are apart of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ), off of Africa and allow them to form easier. When Trade Winds are strong, systems cant keep themselves together which typically ends in the storm becoming a "Naked" swirl of low level winds, due to the circulation getting ripped out from under the Convection.


Figure 3. The pattern and affects of having a Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Pros
-Above Average SST's
-Energy Focused into Tropics because of cooler Subtropical and Eastern Pacific Waters

Cons
-Saharan Dust/Dry Air

Mutual Factors
-Neutral Event
-Average Wind Shear
-Average Instability
-Negative NAO though its beneficial, the phase may tend to flip flop.

Historically
My analogs stand as they are... 2005 (Most active season on record) and 2010 (3rd most active season on record, tied with 2011, 2012, 1995, and 1887) come the closest. Both seasons were Hyperactive.
2005 and 2010 both stand with the SST's that almost replicate that of 2013, as well as stood with Neutral/La Nina Conditions. Winter Analogs also stand very similar.

Overview
I foresee a season with many more storms with origins in the Tropics, rather than the Subtropics that dominated 2012. This means that storms will be capable of tapping into larger amounts of ocean heat content, that have sat untouched by any Major Hurricane for years now. This means more Hurricanes, on top of more Major Hurricanes. The instability stands at average levels, which will be capable of allowing a couple of seriously dangerous storms this year. The other atmospheric conditions present will also allow an Above Average amount of storms to get going in the Atlantic. Though Warm waters sit out near the Cape Verde Islands, the tropical waves that emerge into the Eastern Atlantic off of Africa, will prefer to escape the Saharan Dust and possible Positive NAO that may bring stronger Trade Winds if the NAO were to flip throughout the season. These conditions in the Eastern Atlantic would result in more storms forming from these same tropical waves just farther west. This chain reaction of factors would then mean places like the Caribbean Islands, Central America, and the US would be in the Threat Zone.


Figure 4. The differences and affects of the different phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Landfalls
Getting more specific into US landfall, the pattern of a Negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) that is an apparent event that will be set up over the Central Pacific for this year, will keep things dry across the Southwest US setting up a High Pressure system. This would result in a blocking mechanism to set up over Texas, pushing Storms that come far enough west into Central America, or if they stay east, they will be pushed into the weakness that would be set up over Southeastern US and US eastern seaboard.

Landfall Chances
-Decreased Chance of Landfall on the Western Gulf Coast
-Increased Chance of Landfall on Central America
-Increased Chance of Landfall on the US Southeast
-Increased Chance of Landfall on the East Coast of the US
-Increased Chance of Landfall on the Caribbean Islands

*An increased likelihood of Storms making Landfall in General.

Lastly, my 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season April Forecast
18 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

These Numbers were placed on the high side of my previous range from my February Outlook due to the more condensed consensus of an Above Average Season.
My New Range Stands at...
16-20 Named Storms
9-12 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes

I will adding onto this post in the next week or two to release my outlook for the 2013 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 19:12 GMT le 18 avril 2013   Permalink | A A A
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (7)
2013 Hurricane Season ; Another Active Season to Come?
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 03:31 GMT le 07 février 2013 +12
2013 Hurricane Season Outlook
Hey Everyone! Its been awhile since ive been on the blog, making entries and such, Just wanted to post up a quick blog about the 2013 season in my eyes.

The 2013 season appears to be primed and set to be another above average season as the El Nino event that was forecasted to persist through Spring has withered away and has been replaced by a cold neutral. The season is Still uncertain on Track, but some good ideas towar...
Updated: 00:02 GMT le 13 mai 2013   Permalink | A A A
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (17)
Ernesto strengthening; Florence forms
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 00:29 GMT le 05 août 2012 +1
ERNESTOTropical storm Ernesto has continued to organize and slowly strengthen through-out the day, though currently is obviously not statistically strong, with the NHC stating Ernesto has 60 mph sustained winds...Though he is statistically not as strong, he still has the capability of becoming a hurricane within the next 24 hours.Recon; Hurricane Hunters are going to head into the storm later tonight, and might find a stronger Ernesto than earlier (The HH were findi...
Categories:Hurricane
  Permalink | A A A
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (3)
Atlantic Basin ready for Take-off.
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 23:15 GMT le 24 juillet 2012 +4
IntroAfter almost a month of pure quiet in the Atlantic Basin, it appears we might begin to pick up in actvity throughout the next two weeks.Current Atlantic TropicsA non-tropical frontal low located East-Northeast of Bermuda has began to become less frontal and more Tropical in-nature. The low has continued to organize throughout the day and was tagged "Invest 98L". Though it has waned in convective intensity lately, due to Diurnal Minimum, it was given a 40% chanc...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 23:23 GMT le 24 juillet 2012   Permalink | A A A
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (5)
Hurricane Chris Dissipates ; Debby coming soon
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 23:16 GMT le 22 juin 2012 +1
Hurricane Chris dissipated early this morning as it traversed through the chilly waters parallel to New Foundland. ex-Chris won't be a threat to anything or anyone, and has no chance to redevelop.Figure 1. Hurricane Chris at peak intensity on Thursday Morning, with 75 mph sustained winds.Debby to form in the Next Few days96L is near to becoming our Fourth Tropical Cyclone of the season, though it remains disorganized at this hour. The Core of the storm is beginning ...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 23:26 GMT le 22 juin 2012   Permalink | A A A
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (0)

« View Older Entries

About HurricaneDean07
I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since

Tropical Blogs

Tropical Weather Stickers®

Contact This Author
Local Weather
Overcast
Crystal Beach, Texas
75 ° F
Couvert
Detailed Conditions & Forecast
Recent Photos
Hurricane Dean Hurricane Alert #1- TS ISAAC
TS Isaac Tracking Map #2 Isaac and Joyce
HurricaneDean07's Wunder Photos
Previous Entries for 2013