Omar near hurricane strength; TD 16 slowly strengthening
Tropical Storm Omar is steadily strengthening as it continues to lash northern Colombia, northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 3:06 pm EDT found the pressure had dropped significantly, to 986 mb. The crew reported that heavy thunderstorms were beginning to wrap around the center, which had taken on a better-defined circular shape. Omar is beginning to form an eyewall, and could be a hurricane by morning. Indeed, surface winds reported by the Hurricane Hunters were 70 mph--very close to hurricane strength. Radar from the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain has organized into spiral bands, but heavy thunderstorm activity is missing on the northwest side of the storm. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase and organize. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10 knots, allowing this increased organization to occur.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Omar.
The forecast for Omar
The storm is expected to turn northeastward tonight as an upper-level trough of low pressure digs far enough south to pull the storm towards the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-15 knot range over the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow Omar to intensify into a hurricane before it moves through the Virgin Islands and northernmost Lesser Antilles Wednesday night. I expect Omar will remain near its current intensity until it completes building an eyewall, which it should happen between 12 am and 6 am EDT Wednesday. At that time, the potential for rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane exists. The latest SHIPS model is forecasting that Omar will rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours, arriving in the Virgin Islands Wednesday evening as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane with 110-115 mph winds. The GFDL and HWRF are much less aggressive. They forecast higher shear affecting Omar, and 70-75 mph winds at landfall. Given Omar's current appearance and rather low pressure, landfall Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane looks like a reasonable intensity forecast. I give Omar a 30% chance of being a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall.
Omar's storm surge
If Omar does become a hurricane, wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from the storm. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structure due to high battering waves.
Figure 2. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus a correction for the storm hitting at high tide) for a Category 3 hurricane moving northeast at 12 mph through the Virgin Islands. This is NOT the surge expected from a particular storm, but rather the maximum computed storm tide (Maximum Envelope of Waters, or MEOW) from eleven different simulated hurricanes (with tracks shown in black with arrows). The simulations were done using NOAA's SLOSH model.
Heavy rains from an outer rain band are just south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and will move into the islands over the next few hours. This rain should only last a few hours, and the bulk of Omar's rain will not arrive until Wednesday afternoon. Omar should bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to the easternmost tip of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, but the rest of Hispaniola should escape heavy rains. All of the Leeward Islands are at risk of total rainfall of 5-10 inches from Omar. Martinique radar shows heavy rains affecting all of the islands north of Martinique.
Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather
St. Croix, Virgin Islands weather
Martinique radar
Tropical Depression 16 off the coast of Honduras
Tropical Depression 16, near the Honduras/Nicaragua border, continues to slowly organize. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms spread out over a large portion of the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains are affecting extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, and will be pushing into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this evening. So far, rainfall rates in the heaviest thunderstorms over land have been near 1/2 inch per hour (Figure 3). These rains will steadily increase in coverage and intensity as TD 16 continues to organize. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission found 30-35 mph winds and a central pressure of 1004 mb.
The forecast for TD 16
Conditions are favorable for TD 16 to intensify into a tropical storm. The system is expected to track very coast to the coast of Honduras, and this proximity to land should limit intensification potential. A west-southwesterly motion into the northern coast of Honduras is not expected, since the latest set of model runs keeps TD 16 just offshore. However, it would not take much of a deviation in track for TD 16 to make landfall in northern Honduras. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water within 50 miles of land, slow intensification should occur, and the GFDL and HWRF models are expecting TD 16 to make landfall Thursday morning in Belize as a 50-55 mph tropical storm. If TD 16 manages to move farther from land, more significant intensification could occur, but that doesn't appear likely at this time.
Links to follow
Puerto Lempira, Honduras weather
Figure 3. Estimated rainfall rates from TD 16 at 9:43 am EDT Tuesday, October 13, 2008. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Nana and the child of Nana
Tropical Depression Nana has been torn apart by wind shear of 30-40 knots. Regeneration is unlikely due to the continued high wind shear expected along its path. The small area of disturbed weather south-southeast of Nana (90L), has also been disrupted by high wind shear, although latest satelite loops show a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity still clinging to the east side. The shear should prevent either system from redeveloping.
Hurricane Ike relief efforts: Monday 10/13/08 update
From StormJunkie's blog today: Portlight.org is currently preparing the next push of supplies to head to the forgotten populations and disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to the exceptional pricing that U-haul has given us on trucks we have found the cheapest way to transport these goods is to continue to utilize our U-haul deal to transport these goods. We will be delivering many items to these outlying communities early to mid next week. Look for updates on this trip as it happens!
Some of the supplies that are being delivered include 50 manual wheel chairs that were specifically requested by the Houston Mayor of Disabilities. We have also received items from Coleman and Dick's Sporting goods which will be on the truck. A pallet of tents has also been donated by an anonymous person. Some quantity of socks has also been donated. As we receive and secure more items we will continue to update. In the mean time, if any have connections that may be able to help us acquire some of the following items; your timely help is greatly appreciated.
Figure 4. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City Fire Department opening supplies sent by Portlight. Supplies were not only needed but also greatly appreciated.
Contributions to the portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Some of us like you just the way you are.
Sorry sweetie, some of us are hanging around watching the weather; others are 'in the cone.'
goodnight.
And so are you Press!
Kudos to you both.
It would seem that you do not understand the point I was making. The " good thing " about the storm accelerating is that it would be around the area for a shorter period of time, thus inflicting less potential damage. Don't be soo quick to take offense.
That would be good for every island !
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
tells me that they dont putting all the money on it.
apparently I have school tomorrow =O
Don't go, they will cancel them in the morning.
Vieques is only about 7 miles to my east... I see it from my house.
That worries me.
By the way....
greater puerto rico - Hurricane Watch
Vieques and Culebra - Hurricane Warning
Sorry but you will have to check with the relevant authorities. I'm out for tonight
They will cancel them in the morning for sure.
That heavy rain is hours away.
lol im not completely sure about that =P
so im going to bed if they cancel I will be here since early in the morning =D
are you sure???
We love ya Taz, but I still want to know when Orca has a new update
lol my school wont wash away lol its pure concrete =P
But there isnt much to do now so I will come back at 6am =D
Hmm 1 local met...or 300 weather enthusiasts. I wonder.
Presslord WUmail reply
When in doubt, plan for the worse, hope for the best.
15L/H/C1/O
EST POS
68.3W/15.1N
TRACK
67.9W/15.8N 15L/H/C2/O
67.3W/16.2N
66.9W/16.7N
66.3W/17.2N 15L/H/C3/O
65.9W/17.5N
(STOP)
As promised, here is another update on our weather conditions here on St. Croix. The skies are still overcast with light rains. Based on the 11 pm advisory, Tropical Storm...ahem, um, sorry, i mean...HURRICANE Omar is still projected to pass our way. This is really serious folks. I haven't felt this in a long time since Hurrican Marylin and Hugo. I am praying to God for his protection that this thing dosen't devestate us.
Looking at satelite imageries, the cloud tops of Hurricane Omar looks very impressive. I never seen colder cloud tops like this in my life. The depressing thing about it is that the cloud tops are near the east and top of the COC. This is a sign of the storm is strengthening. I am putting my life on the line that this system will reach Cat 2 by the time it hits the northern lesser antillies.
All I can say to folks living there is to prepare and stay inside.
I will try to have another update if electricity allows me too. If not, I will try to use my mobile for communication until batteries runs dead.
remember a hurricane can strip the land of everything including all life so nothing remains but the dirt and the water
Right now any kind of sheets sound good.
Night folks
Happy mediums never fail...
But keep in mind, if the meteorologist was 100% sure that it wasnt just a wobble and that is may in fact come closer than expected, BUT the NHC didnt say anything... would they risk their credibility and say what they think or wait until it is backed by the little dots the NHC puts.
Agree they will wait for data recon, me also hoppfull orca stay with us.
ROFLMAO!
However, if flooding is an issue and they are downplaying the storm purely because of Cat or direct landfall and you are not an enthusiast... who's giving the best advice tonight? ;)
I agree with you in principle, but...
Landfall points
Click to enlarge
it is giving indications at the moment of an earlier than forecasted arrival
1152 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008
.UPDATE...
OMAR HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AS OF THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP. OMAR IS NOW
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER ST CROIX AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE PUERTO RICO AND ST CROIX BEGINNING TOMORROW BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF OMAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PASSING OVER ST
CROIX STARTING MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO FOR THE
PASSAGE OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE VIGILANT TO
ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT WESTWARD WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER
RAINS OVER MAINLAND PR. PLEASE SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
FOR DETAILED LOCAL IMPACTS.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE OMAR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008
......OMAR BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...
.AT 1100 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... OMAR WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.
Not that I know of.
Some one post that there is one schedulle at midnigth.
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