Omar near hurricane strength; TD 16 slowly strengthening
Tropical Storm Omar is steadily strengthening as it continues to lash northern Colombia, northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 3:06 pm EDT found the pressure had dropped significantly, to 986 mb. The crew reported that heavy thunderstorms were beginning to wrap around the center, which had taken on a better-defined circular shape. Omar is beginning to form an eyewall, and could be a hurricane by morning. Indeed, surface winds reported by the Hurricane Hunters were 70 mph--very close to hurricane strength. Radar from the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain has organized into spiral bands, but heavy thunderstorm activity is missing on the northwest side of the storm. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase and organize. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10 knots, allowing this increased organization to occur.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Omar.
The forecast for Omar
The storm is expected to turn northeastward tonight as an upper-level trough of low pressure digs far enough south to pull the storm towards the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-15 knot range over the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow Omar to intensify into a hurricane before it moves through the Virgin Islands and northernmost Lesser Antilles Wednesday night. I expect Omar will remain near its current intensity until it completes building an eyewall, which it should happen between 12 am and 6 am EDT Wednesday. At that time, the potential for rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane exists. The latest SHIPS model is forecasting that Omar will rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours, arriving in the Virgin Islands Wednesday evening as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane with 110-115 mph winds. The GFDL and HWRF are much less aggressive. They forecast higher shear affecting Omar, and 70-75 mph winds at landfall. Given Omar's current appearance and rather low pressure, landfall Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane looks like a reasonable intensity forecast. I give Omar a 30% chance of being a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall.
Omar's storm surge
If Omar does become a hurricane, wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from the storm. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structure due to high battering waves.
Figure 2. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus a correction for the storm hitting at high tide) for a Category 3 hurricane moving northeast at 12 mph through the Virgin Islands. This is NOT the surge expected from a particular storm, but rather the maximum computed storm tide (Maximum Envelope of Waters, or MEOW) from eleven different simulated hurricanes (with tracks shown in black with arrows). The simulations were done using NOAA's SLOSH model.
Heavy rains from an outer rain band are just south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and will move into the islands over the next few hours. This rain should only last a few hours, and the bulk of Omar's rain will not arrive until Wednesday afternoon. Omar should bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to the easternmost tip of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, but the rest of Hispaniola should escape heavy rains. All of the Leeward Islands are at risk of total rainfall of 5-10 inches from Omar. Martinique radar shows heavy rains affecting all of the islands north of Martinique.
Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather
St. Croix, Virgin Islands weather
Martinique radar
Tropical Depression 16 off the coast of Honduras
Tropical Depression 16, near the Honduras/Nicaragua border, continues to slowly organize. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms spread out over a large portion of the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains are affecting extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, and will be pushing into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this evening. So far, rainfall rates in the heaviest thunderstorms over land have been near 1/2 inch per hour (Figure 3). These rains will steadily increase in coverage and intensity as TD 16 continues to organize. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission found 30-35 mph winds and a central pressure of 1004 mb.
The forecast for TD 16
Conditions are favorable for TD 16 to intensify into a tropical storm. The system is expected to track very coast to the coast of Honduras, and this proximity to land should limit intensification potential. A west-southwesterly motion into the northern coast of Honduras is not expected, since the latest set of model runs keeps TD 16 just offshore. However, it would not take much of a deviation in track for TD 16 to make landfall in northern Honduras. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water within 50 miles of land, slow intensification should occur, and the GFDL and HWRF models are expecting TD 16 to make landfall Thursday morning in Belize as a 50-55 mph tropical storm. If TD 16 manages to move farther from land, more significant intensification could occur, but that doesn't appear likely at this time.
Links to follow
Puerto Lempira, Honduras weather
Figure 3. Estimated rainfall rates from TD 16 at 9:43 am EDT Tuesday, October 13, 2008. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Nana and the child of Nana
Tropical Depression Nana has been torn apart by wind shear of 30-40 knots. Regeneration is unlikely due to the continued high wind shear expected along its path. The small area of disturbed weather south-southeast of Nana (90L), has also been disrupted by high wind shear, although latest satelite loops show a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity still clinging to the east side. The shear should prevent either system from redeveloping.
Hurricane Ike relief efforts: Monday 10/13/08 update
From StormJunkie's blog today: Portlight.org is currently preparing the next push of supplies to head to the forgotten populations and disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to the exceptional pricing that U-haul has given us on trucks we have found the cheapest way to transport these goods is to continue to utilize our U-haul deal to transport these goods. We will be delivering many items to these outlying communities early to mid next week. Look for updates on this trip as it happens!
Some of the supplies that are being delivered include 50 manual wheel chairs that were specifically requested by the Houston Mayor of Disabilities. We have also received items from Coleman and Dick's Sporting goods which will be on the truck. A pallet of tents has also been donated by an anonymous person. Some quantity of socks has also been donated. As we receive and secure more items we will continue to update. In the mean time, if any have connections that may be able to help us acquire some of the following items; your timely help is greatly appreciated.
Figure 4. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City Fire Department opening supplies sent by Portlight. Supplies were not only needed but also greatly appreciated.
Contributions to the portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Link
all good. i could use an inch or 2
Its ENE and 70mph
Here in Saint Martin we are getting a lot of rain....
it's incredible...
what are the chances that omar get into a cat 3 before passing sint maarten?
Thanks for your answer
ya, you didnt already see that.
Doc says 30% I say a bit more.
Mirror Site
by the 11 we will have hurricane Omar, my guess is 80mph Omar.
Waiting for the 5pm discussions to come out now.
i am curious to see what the nhc's opinion is on it now being ENE
If i understand right, omar should be a hurricane cat 1, and he should pass north of saint martin>
Really appreciate your answer
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Puerto Rico, USVI, and BVI
What are we supposed to think? God condemns Hispaniola and the other islands in the Caribbean?
Don't get me wrong, but its a matter of luck not a matter of religion who gets the storm.
And this storm is still and issue for us .
By the way, Culebra and Vieques... isnt that Puerto Rico too?
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT.
oh grrreaaat
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING.
been saying that all day LOL
one it is forecast to be well east of St. Croix I will totally relax!
would like to fast forward to tomorrow noon.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Umm whats left, and where is this elsewhere place?
Hmm and the blob off Texas.. maybe?
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
theres the wording I didnt want to see =( Might be credance to the Cat 3 statment by benrica being over 30%
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT...
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
thats just peachy.
Folks you are in my prayers down there and I hope folks are taking serious precautions. Omar is going to be a very powerful storm unfortunatly
I told you. Omar will pass farther east than expected, even farther than Lenny.
Lamps, batteries, weather radio, first aid kit, clean water for everyone for at least 3 days (thats 1 gallon per person per daay at the minimum), food for said persons for the same amount of time, personal papers (ie IDs, insurance, birth certificates) in a water proof container or at least a ziplock bag, prescription meds filled (if necessary), toiletries to stay clean, also antibacterial soap (hand sanitizer) comes in very handy.
Thats what I can think of off the top of my head. Others may chime in and offer more. Remeber keep all these things dry!
Heard that to many times this year.
Hey Bone ... That, right there, is the MOST important advice. Great point!
CatastophicDL has a blog on the topic: Link
Patrap also has a good blog about hurricane preparedness.
( don't know how to post a link, sorry. But you can click on his handle or look under blogs at the top of the page)
Guiness, where on Tortola do you live? Are you on the windward or leeward side of the island, high or low elevation? Patrap has a very good blog about hurricane preparation. No matter how well you prepare if the storm surge washes over your house you will drown. If the wind rips off your roof, your house will come down around you. You should go to a safe, sturdy, designated shelter if your local officials ask you to do so. And on a goofy note, a tourist asked a boat captain down there where "they" towed the island when a hurricane threatened. Good luck to you and all of those in harms way from this storm.
Hurricane shutters to go up too..
tow the island
now thats right there is funny I dont care who you are LOL
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