Paloma nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 20:01 GMT le 06 novembre 2008

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Tropical Storm Paloma continues to steadily strengthen, and is well on its way to becoming a hurricane. The latest 2:20 pm EST center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found that the pressure had fallen to 994 mb, and the surface winds had increased to 60 mph. The crew reported that Paloma has built a 20-mile diameter eyewall that is 3/4 complete, with only a gap on the southwest side. Bouy 42057 reported sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 74 mph, at 6:50 pm EST. Visible satellite images show that Paloma continues to grow more organized, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center and upper level outflow expanding on all sides.


Figure 1. Microwave image of Paloma at 7:15 am EST Thursday November 6, 2008. A partial eyewall is evident on the southeast side of the center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear remains a very low 0-5 knots, and is expected to remain very low through Friday night. Wind shear will increase to 10-15 knots Friday night and Saturday, as the storm heads north, but I don't expect Paloma will stop intensifying until it crosses 20° North Latitude (between the Cayman Islands and Cuba) Saturday night, when the shear will increase to 30-50 knots. Water temperatures are warm, 29°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are very favorable conditions for intensification, and Paloma should be a hurricane by tonight or Friday morning. The latest (12Z, 7am EST) run of the HWRF model predicts Paloma will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL model predicts a Category 3 hurricane, and the latest 18Z SHIPS model puts Paloma as a strong Category 1 hurricane with 95 mph winds in the Caymans. I believe Paloma will be a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday when it passes through the the Cayman Islands. Paloma will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall in Cuba, and a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds in the Bahamas.

The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF--continue to predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas. On this track, Grand Cayman may receive a direct hit, but Little Cayman and Cayman Brac would only see top sustained winds of 50 mph. A slight deviation to the right, though, would put Little Cayman and Cayman Brac in the bulls-eye. Jamaica should see winds of just 20-30 mph from Paloma.

Links to follow
Buoy 42057
Grand Cayman airport weather
Grand Cayman weather
Wundermap for the Cayman Islands
Wundermap for 18N 83W

Historical note
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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812. 19N81W
16:39 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
This storm seems to be a rain maker....it is pouring here and is not really letting up...my son is tearing up the house!...Paloma is looking like a perfect little hurricane now on the visible...
Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
811. kmanhurricaneman
15:52 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
hello guys just got back from town ,what a mess people still on roads at gas stations supermarkets closed at 9:30 and they were still packed ,as i said before the gov is to blame not informing people in time although some has to go to the populice as well winds picking up rain pretty consistant the road i am on is flooded with rain water will update with furter as it comes
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
810. hurricane556
15:26 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
eye alert!!!!
Member Since: 16 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
809. stillwaiting
15:13 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting Skyepony:
The backup navy site has been better on the ball the last few days. Ignore that security cert thing if it comes up.

Thanks Patrap:) I did what I could. Photo moderating ate up alot of my storm time & when the storms got bad well I was suddenly a lazy moderater..lol. Anyways, I've rotated out so next season I should be a little more helpful. Thanks for all the links & info you've brought too. When it's coming for you like Fay did this year here, it's a huge help having everyone else dig up the info.


skypony:did you see that surfmom's son is in a polo competition this weekend???,pretty cool huh???I rode from when I was 14-16yrs old...
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
808. stillwaiting
15:10 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
I was stating how I would like to get into a weather program????is that not "talkn' weather"???
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
807. CaicosRetiredSailor
15:08 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
since we just moved past a "page break"...

HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING GRAND CAYMAN...

...
AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...390
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


==================================


HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.
Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
806. stillwaiting
15:08 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting Miami:
This is a weather site...please keep your political views outside of the blog.



what are you a mod????,I don't think so!!!!HA,HA
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
805. Skyepony (Mod)
15:07 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
The backup navy site has been better on the ball the last few days. Ignore that security cert thing if it comes up.

Thanks Patrap:) I did what I could. Photo moderating ate up alot of my storm time & when the storms got bad well I was suddenly a lazy moderater..lol. Anyways, I've rotated out so next season I should be a little more helpful. Thanks for all the links & info you've brought too. When it's coming for you like Fay did this year here, it's a huge help having everyone else dig up the info.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39088
804. Miami
15:06 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
This is a weather site...please keep your political views outside of the blog.
Quoting stillwaiting:



One day I WILL be working in/flying one of those!!!!
I've been thinking more and more about joining the AF or coast guard and want to get into there weather program...now that we have a commander and chief that I would have no problem working under....
803. stillwaiting
15:02 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Into the Fray again for 303 Skyepony.

Looks like 08 Swan Song Cane.

Thanks for the reports and recon this season.









One day I WILL be working in/flying one of those!!!!
I've been thinking more and more about joining the AF or coast guard and want to get into there weather program...now that we have a commander and chief that I would have no problem working under....
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
802. Bonedog
15:02 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Cayman....

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
801. Bonedog
14:58 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
anyone know whats up with the Navy site? Hasn't updated in a while
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
800. CaymanGirlSailR
14:56 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Greetings from Grand Cayman :( Does anyone know when we can expect next update? Roads are already flooded (due to ave rainfall saturated most land over the past four days). We are prepared. Water Authority is shutting the system down at 11AM EST. (Now 10AM here)
799. Skyepony (Mod)
14:55 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Wave forecast is actually slightly down from yesterday with the worst being 8-9 meters.

This one is even lower topping out around 12-14ft.

I can't really see surge being a huge factor between the deep waters that surround those islands & Paloma hasn't been a raging majors for days.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39088
798. CaicosRetiredSailor
14:55 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING GRAND CAYMAN...

...
AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...390
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
797. Patrap
14:55 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
No doubt if Grand Cayman or Brac gets the right front Quad,its going to be a Wild Ride as Paloma is a Tight well Stacked and well structured cane with a Downward trend in pressure.
All bad for those in that path.

Path and forward speed all critical with this one .
Then Cuba is going to get bit,too.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
796. Bonedog
14:53 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
thats wierd.....

Cayman Retreat, George Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (PWS)
Updated: 9:52 AM EST on November 07, 2008
74.9 °F
Rain
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 72 °F

Wind: 13.8 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 13.8 mph


Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)


Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
795. Patrap
14:52 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Frontal Squall Line just Blasted thru here..was Gusty and Heavy rains with it.


NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
794. TampaSpin
14:51 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
This is a nice loop to look at the big pic of the trough and Paloma.....That trough needs to speed up or Paloma needs to slow down some...WV LOOP Link
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
792. Patrap
14:50 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Into the Fray again for 303 Skyepony.

Looks like 08 Swan Song Cane.

Thanks for the reports and recon this season.






Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
791. XL
14:47 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Seems to be getting worse by the minute here. Sea is now very rough (Not quite as bad as it was with Gustav - Pics on my page). Rain is relentless and the wind is really picking up.
Crossing everythig I can cross
Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
790. TampaSpin
14:47 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
The Trough has moved maybe 200 miles in 6 hours
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789. Skyepony (Mod)
14:46 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Recon AF303 just turned on. Should be taking off soon.

Best of luck to those in Grand Cayman. Be safe. Expect lots of rain.
12hr raintotals
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788. Patrap
14:43 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Hurricane Paloma Link
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
787. Bonedog
14:41 GMT le 07 novembre 2008


Looks like the eyewall is poping tops again and the protoeye is peeking out again
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
786. stormpetrol
14:41 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting IKE:


12 hour forecast from the NHC has it going right over the island....

12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT



Coordinates for Grand Cayman listed on WU are....

19.2N
81.4W


One thing I must say Paloma doesn't appear to be carrying large waves or seas, its rough but not the surge with Gustav or even Ike, at least not here in South Sound anyways, other areas of the Island/s could be a whole different story. It appears for now rain and flooding are the major problems , hope it speeds up and passes soon.
Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
785. CybrTeddy
14:41 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
11 AM in, Paloma stronger now with 85 MPH winds and a pressure of 979 MB, equal that of a Category 2.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
784. stillwaiting
14:40 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
I would have to say it looks like paloma is headed more NNW for the moment,being drawn toward the trough....this TC will come closer to FL than forcast,though likely as a weaker TC maybe even just a reminent low if it goes to far north!!!!
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783. TampaSpin
14:40 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
782. Patrap
14:40 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Hurricane Paloma Short Visible Loop Link

NOAA Image Page
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
781. jambev
14:39 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Here in Kingston, it is amazing to report that the sky is clear and the sun out in all it's glory. This despite the presence of Paloma some 300 miles directly west of us.This, of course is likely to change and we expect some of the outer rain bands.
Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
780. Patrap
14:38 GMT le 07 novembre 2008


Hurricane Paloma 13:45 UTC

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779. fireflymom
14:38 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting gadester:
From Snug Harbour (just off and in the middle of West Bay Road)- Canal is rising and flowing fast! The pool is close to overflowing and the yard is beginning to flood. Rain, rain and more rain. Wind picking up....best wishes to everyone in GC and thanks to all for their kind thoughts and prayers.
Our thoughts will be with you as will our prayers for safe passage through the storm.
Member Since: 5 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
778. IKE
14:38 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
105 mph winds for Grand Cayman is what's forecast.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
777. IKE
14:37 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't look like Grand Cayman's going to get mercy from this one.


12 hour forecast from the NHC has it going right over the island....

12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT



Coordinates for Grand Cayman listed on WU are....

19.2N
81.4W
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
776. Skyepony (Mod)
14:34 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
It looks a tad west of south. Looking at this your islands weather station may have quit working.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39088
775. CybrTeddy
14:34 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it's aiming right at Grand Cayman.


Doesn't look like Grand Cayman's going to get mercy from this one.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
774. gadester
14:30 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
From Snug Harbour (just off and in the middle of West Bay Road)- Canal is rising and flowing fast! The pool is close to overflowing and the yard is beginning to flood. Rain, rain and more rain. Wind picking up....best wishes to everyone in GC and thanks to all for their kind thoughts and prayers.
773. Orcasystems
14:29 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting stormpetrol:
I hoping for a more eastward movement that would spare us the brunt, maybe wishful thinking on my part but the eye was SSW earlier, now it it appears to be directly South of Grand Cayman and basically no change in latitude which would point to a more eastward movement , anyone else notice this or just wishful thinking on my part.


NHC Official Track just shifted East.. good call



That being said.. if you throw in the late model Spaghetti runs.. they show it stalling soon.
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771. TampaSpin
14:27 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
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770. IKE
14:26 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Quoting stormpetrol:
I hoping for a more eastward movement that would spare us the brunt, maybe wishful thinking on my part but the eye was SSW earlier, now it it appears to be directly South of Grand Cayman and basically no change in latitude which would point to a more eastward movement , anyone else notice this or just wishful thinking on my part.


Looks like it's aiming right at Grand Cayman.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
769. Skyepony (Mod)
14:26 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
WV of the coming front. Dropped a little south in the night.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39088
768. stormpetrol
14:26 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
I'm thinking it will cross us here in Grand Cayman between 4-7 pm this evening, probably around 65 miles due south of us right now.
Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
767. stormpetrol
14:21 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
I hoping for a more eastward movement that would spare us the brunt, maybe wishful thinking on my part but the eye was SSW earlier, now it it appears to be directly South of Grand Cayman and basically no change in latitude which would point to a more eastward movement , anyone else notice this or just wishful thinking on my part.
Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
766. stormdude77
14:20 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
The NOGAPS model is completely out to sea with Paloma, it doesn't have a clue. Throw it out the window.
765. Bonedog
14:20 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
morning Tampa
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764. TampaSpin
14:19 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
Morning everyone....
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
762. Bonedog
14:16 GMT le 07 novembre 2008
looking at MIMIC Paloma is experiencing an EWRC

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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