Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:25 GMT le 15 novembre 2008

A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)

This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.

Southern California Fires (SBKaren)

Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.

Categories: Fire

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251. Drakoen 01:59 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting beell: Aw, come on STL, You champion your beliefs well. Your posts are consistent and well made. Same can be said for your weather posts. Asteroid Impacts, Earthquakes, Hurricanes. So many things we cannot control that can kill us all. Sometimes it can be hard to consider the things we can. off to see if i has been banned... You're #45 on his list. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

252. beell 02:00 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
yup! Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

253. Drakoen 02:01 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting beell: yup! Life without STL's blog will be so dark and lonely... LOL Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

254. pottery 02:01 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Surfmom. I Object. How come only men seals are grumpy old farts ?? I've known some gru.... well, never mind. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

255. sugarsand 02:02 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Pottery, it was wood burning up until three years ago when hurricane Ivan and then Dennis took their toll on the chimney and we had leaks and wood rot in the siding. (We live one block from the Gulf, so fireplaces are rare). We replaced the siding and capped the chimney and installed gas logs. Now, it's a nice heater for the lower level of the house and keeps the electric heat pump from running....which is more efficient??? Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

257. beell 02:04 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
I did visit his blog on a regular basis, Drak. It's an excellent weather blog for the Heartland. Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

258. Drakoen 02:05 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting beell: I did visit his blog Drak. It's an excellent weather blog for the Heartland. I don't live up north. Relevance is little. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

259. surfmom 02:05 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Look at all you guys checking the ocean/gulf out LOL. Today was Day three, only one spot on my key was going off good enough - My young buck and buddies found some good waves on Casey Key. I'm exhausted - the cold really drains me - even so it was lovely. Friday the gulf was 72, yesterday 70, today 68 Got to pull out the winter running gear (which I only used 3x last year)Just don't enjoy all these garments -- life should be flipflops, sun dresses, bikinis,t-shirts & shorts Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

260. theshepherd 02:06 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Ok mom Grumpy ol' farts it is ;>) And please don't call me "sea"shepherd. That's the group ran by the idiot using Steve Irwin's name to endanger the lives of his crew and others down in the Antartic. lol Member Since: 11 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8215

261. pottery 02:08 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Good thing Sugar. I am trying to save the World. Plant trees. Dont burn them. At the same time, your gas fired heater is providing me with an enhanced life style. (Trinidad supplies 70% of American LPG). So your warmth is of great comfort to me. Sounds kind of contradictory right ? Well, I'm working on that......... heheheheh Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

262. surfmom 02:09 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Tis true Pottery, I'm sure there's some witchy. whiskery old crone seal out there who deserves the fate... Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

263. sugarsand 02:10 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting surfmom: Look at all you guys checking the ocean/gulf out LOL. Today was Day three, only one spot on my key was going off good enough - My young buck and buddies found some good waves on Casey Key. I'm exhausted - the cold really drains me - even so it was lovely. Friday the gulf was 72, yesterday 70, today 68 Got to pull out the winter running gear (which I only used 3x last year)Just don't enjoy all these garments -- life should be flipflops, sun dresses, bikinis,t-shirts & shorts Life should be flipflops,sundresses,bikinis, t-shirts, and shorts, AMEN! Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

264. Bjanmama 02:10 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting pottery: Hi there, Bjanmama. Good to see you. I did notice that Surfmom left out the lime. But I figured, wont do her any lasting harm!!. As to the clove, I have not tried that along with the punch. But I will. You are right. Climate change is evident here. I think it is obvious that a small Island would react to the small changes in things like SST more than a continent. And yes, the drop in oil price is good news for most people. Especially now. I was talking to a guy from the Hilton chain in the Islands. They are worried. Low bookings. Etc. This will affect your tourism badly. Interesting times......... Oh yes, verrry intesting! I teach at UWI,one of those much maligned evil creatures that clearly do nothing but talk you know what) am a historian and teach Development and Environment stuff, watching these economic events since Viet-Nam, awhile-- very scary- yet at the same time, the idea of a G20, instead of the colonial powers, more recognition of the social issues, finally the demise of crazy economic neo-libealism- (and I didn't say it so there is no bigpolitical discussion) but virtually zero government where it should be in regulatory functions so that companies, corporations and CEO's etc. don't run amok in their crazy greediness- less the american/roman empire and more cooperation (which the american people overwhelmingly for YEARS have said they want- it's no fun being the big superpower!) and we may get more cooperation out of this and better international regulatory functions- no one country can control a TNC! Ask the rust-belt states in the US! let alone Dominica or Senegal and other small states. But for the Caribbean, and all small developing countries that depend on the world's biggest and most fickle industry,Tourism, these are going to be really rough times- but again the same nonsense occurred here-re "free" credit 100% mortgages- giant mansions and huge Ford trucks for our small roads - will finally come to an end- and maybe, just maybe, that old bajan conservatism and penchant for savings(god rest its soul) might just reappear- and just maybe, now that there is no longer one superpower- it is mortgaged to the Arabs and the chinese and the Japanese- we will HAVE to work things out or the Maya prophecy(? anyway their calendar said the end of the world was 2012) will come true. Don't believe it- but they were pretty smart mathematicians- of course maybe most people here wouldn't exactly subscribe to their religious tenets- nor I! So let's have a drink to cooperation, thriftiness and the most lacking ingredient in the world today- common sense!! AND PLEASE were drowning,isn't it flooding in T&T, can't we quit blessing the rain and do an anti-rain dance and pray for it to stop? Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

265. beell 02:13 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Re: 232. Ok, Pottery, I found it... Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

266. surfmom 02:14 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
If it's natural gas I believe that is the better source. My older son just finished working on a new pipe line that went from Alabama to Tampa for natural gas -- seems that the states are loaded with natural gas and it's a lot more cleaner, less hazardous to the environment -- I don't know much about it yet, but they spent a hell of a lot of money to lay the line because they feel there's a market. Also much cheaper to maintain then oil rigs Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

267. surfmom 02:15 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
OOOOOPS.... mea culpa Theshepherd - that was an oops Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

268. Tazmanian 02:16 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
[edit] Hurricane Omar Category 4 hurricane (SSHS) Duration October 13—October 18 Intensity 135 mph (215 km/h) (1-min), 958 mbar (hPa) Main article: Hurricane Omar (2008) A tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean Sea was in an area unfavorable for development in the second week of October. While drifting across the region, upper-level winds diminished enough for the tropical disturbance to strengthen and to develop into Tropical Depression Fifteen on October 13. It strengthened to Tropical Storm Omar the next day. Omar quickly strengthened into a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm that afternoon, and became a hurricane that night. It remained a hurricane through that night and it changed little in intensity through the next day, but that evening Omar intensified quickly and became a 115 mph Category 3 storm, and became a 125 mph (205 km/h) storm the next morning. In a discussion supplied by the National Hurricane Center, it stated that Omar may have peaked as a minimal Category 4 early that morning. This was later confirmed during November in their Running Best Track.[32] However, wind shear and dry air quickly weakened Omar to a minimal hurricane that afternoon as it raced towards the northeast at 26 mph (41 km/h). After dropping to tropical storm strength it became a hurricane again on October 17. It degenerated to a remnant low on October 18. Hurricane Omar winds 135mph Duration October 13—October 18 Intensity 135 mph (215 km/h) (1-min), 958 mbar (hPa) Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111357

269. sugarsand 02:17 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting surfmom: If it's natural gas I believe that is the better source. My older son just finished working on a new pipe line that went from Alabama to Tampa for natural gas -- seems that the states are loaded with natural gas and it's a lot more cleaner, less hazardous to the environment -- I don't know much about it yet, but they spent a hell of a lot of money to lay the line because they feel there's a market. Also much cheaper to maintain then oil rigs Absolutely! My Dad retired from SONAT (Southern Nat. Gas) and it is plentiful in the South. Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

270. Barefootontherocks 02:18 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Member Since: 29 avril 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16333

271. pottery 02:19 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Bjanmama. A drink to Good Sense is a Grand Idea. Cheers. May it make a difference. As to the rest of your post, good one. I will wait in anticipation, to see the responses to that. Hope there are several, as they will be interesting..... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

272. theshepherd 02:20 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
256 michaelstl Holy cow, man. Give it a rest. Everyone on this blog is well versed on global history. Member Since: 11 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8215

273. beell 02:22 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Be verwee careful bf! Off to run an errand. A good warm evening to ALL! Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

274. conchygirl 02:23 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
So loving the gorgeous weather.....doors open to let the nice cool, fresh air in....it is 47 outside! Surfmom, the feet go so much faster in this weather! Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

275. pottery 02:23 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Beel. post 265. Sad, very sad. But true. Very true. OhDear me. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

276. sugarsand 02:23 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting surfmom: OOOOOPS.... mea culpa Theshepherd - that was an oops Too much Pottery brew ;) !! Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

277. sugarsand 02:25 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting pottery: Beel. post 265. Sad, very sad. But true. Very true. OhDear me. Scary sad! Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

278. surfmom 02:26 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Interesting project laying the pipeline through the gulf. Post 264 - Perhaps we are awakening from our sheeple slumber. When the animals are too well fed they get very lazy and complacent. Now we are faced with realities we were able to avoid acknowledge by shopping. American children are hearing "NO, we can't afford that now" for the first time in many years..... this will be for our better good. The world will not end in 2012 -- it will shift to a better consciousness... I hope, But one should also look and study some of the ancient Hopi prophecies -- which look to the weather as a signal of what is ahead Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

279. pottery 02:30 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
I should explain. Trinidad supplies LPG to the US. That is Liquified Petroleum Gas. It is liquified by compressing it to liquid state. Loaded on ships that look like tankers with enormous rounded tanks topsides. The ship is a compression chamber. One cubic yard of the compressed gas, at atmospheric press., would fill a very large aircraft hanger with Gas. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

280. conchygirl 02:30 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting surfmom: Interesting project laying the pipeline through the gulf. Post 264 - Perhaps we are awakening from our sheeple slumber. When the animals are too well fed they get very lazy and complacent. Now we are faced with realities we were able to avoid acknowledge by shopping. American children are hearing "NO, we can't afford that now" for the first time in many years..... this will be for our better good. The world will not end in 2012 -- it will shift to a better consciousness... I hope, But one should also look and study some of the ancient Hopi prophecies -- which look to the weather as a signal of what is ahead touche' surfmom....I grew up hearing that we couldn't afford it and that was fine - you learn to appreciate thinks a lot more. Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

281. surfmom 02:30 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Conchy - yes it's true the running feet do go faster... perhaps to get back to the cozy slippers Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

282. sugarsand 02:31 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Surfmom Had that talk about "economics" with the 16 yr. old just tonight. Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

283. surfmom 02:33 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
bit confused - so what is propane? Cause that's what i use to cook -- could never get use to electric. Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

284. conchygirl 02:33 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting surfmom: Conchy - yes it's true the running feet do go faster... perhaps to get back to the cozy slippers naw, flipflops are what I have on now! (remember, I like the naked toes) LOL Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

285. sugarsand 02:34 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting pottery: I should explain. Trinidad supplies LPG to the US. That is Liquified Petroleum Gas. It is liquified by compressing it to liquid state. Loaded on ships that look like tankers with enormous rounded tanks topsides. The ship is a compression chamber. One cubic yard of the compressed gas, at atmospheric press., would fill a very large aircraft hanger with Gas. Pottery We use LPG in many things around here. Thanks!!! Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

286. GeoffreyWPB 02:34 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
slow night... Zager Evans In the Year 2525 Lyrics: In the year 2525 If man is still alive If woman can survive They may find In the year 3535 Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies Everything you think, do, and say Is in the pill you took today In the year 4545 Ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes You won't find a thing chew Nobody's gonna look at you In the year 5555 Your arms hang limp at your sides Your legs got not nothing to do Some machine is doing that for you In the year 6565 Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too From the bottom of a long glass tube In the year 7510 [ Find more Lyrics at www.mp3lyrics.org/bXq ] If God's a-comin' he ought to make it by then Maybe he'll look around himself and say Guess it's time for the Judgement day In the year 8510 God is gonna shake his mighty head He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been Or tear it down and start again In the year 9595 I'm kinda wondering if man is gonna be alive He's taken everything this old earth can give And he ain't put back nothing Now it's been 10,000 years Man has cried a billion tears For what he never knew Now man's reign is through But through the eternal night The twinkling of starlight So very far away Maybe it's only yesterday In the year 2525 If man is still alive If woman can survive They may find In the year 3535 Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies Everything you think, do or say Is in the pill you took today ....(fading...) Lyrics: In the Year 2525, Zager Evans [end] Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

287. surfmom 02:35 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting sugarsand: Surfmom Had that talk about "economics" with the 16 yr. old just tonight. They are all getting that talk and they're in a bit in shock... don't blame them, they've never known this situation...come to think of it not many adults either. Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

288. pottery 02:37 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Propane is LPG. If you shake the tank, you will feel the surge inside. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

289. sugarsand 02:38 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
286 Geoffrey I was having a pretty good time tonight then you posted that! Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

290. conchygirl 02:38 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: Always found this such an eerie song and more so now! Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

291. pottery 02:39 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
WPB. Thanks for that. Still pull that one out of the hat, from time to time. Music to think about.......... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

292. sugarsand 02:40 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
So..Conchygirl, you had a nice cruise? Looking forward to a week in Duck Key soon! Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

293. surfmom 02:41 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
286Geoffrey - giving your age away LOL -- I'm thinking that some young bright mind out there is going to come up with a way to provide clean free energy, this is what will uncouple the "hands that control and pull all the strings" Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

294. conchygirl 02:43 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting sugarsand: So..Conchygirl, you had a nice cruise? Looking forward to a week in Duck Key soon! Hi Sugarandsand - we had a WONDERFUL cruise - husbands first one and he had a blast. Diving in Costa Maya was rescheduled and too late for us so we went bike riding and kayaking. You'll have such a great time in Duck Key! Sure miss the Keys! Wet suits will be in order. Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

295. Bjanmama 02:43 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting pottery: Bjanmama. A drink to Good Sense is a Grand Idea. Cheers. May it make a difference. As to the rest of your post, good one. I will wait in anticipation, to see the responses to that. Hope there are several, as they will be interesting..... Well, this is a weather blog- and altho- i.e. witness the great cartoons- we do get sorta, maybe political, just a teeny tiny bit- but right now, I'm more concerned if you can use your Zen teaching to blow all the convection from here to Africa up to the North East Atlantic and AWAY! Re my post- anyone listening to the international news and on the internet- about a billion some people- notices the desire for change and the hope ( whether people (some) think its misguided or not-) that the economic, fiscal and political changes in america coupled with what has happened in the world- mean there is more good will ( some chortling, of course, over America's brought-on-itself-misfortune, but that's always natural jealousy and dislike of bullying tactics) since this election,even more than at the beginning of the Clinton years- don't know why Americans won't listen to what other people are saying about them, especially when they think good things are happening ( in this case in the middle of some pretty g.awful ones)and my heart goes out to So. Cal. I was in Stanford for surgery and recoverey for 6 months this year- and my mother and sisters were cut off from seeing me for a long time because of the fires in the Northern mountains. the drought there is unbelievable. California is burning up- some of the most gorgeous scenery in the world. Well no TV, will look for an old video- can't take marking student esssays this time of night. Good Night all- and POttery- please keep blessing the rain while visualising it going away! Merci Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

296. zoomiami 02:43 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Evening all - definitely the best weather of the year - can actually get out of some of the cold weather clothes. Down here these clothes could last you a lifetime, only get used a few days each year normally. Conchy - how far north of me are you? 47 is a bunch cooler than we are. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

297. surfmom 02:45 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Conchy LOL -- I have flipflop socks, warm & cozy -- but they're made to slip the flips on.... only wear them around the house -- my boys won't be seen near me with them on Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

298. sugarsand 02:46 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Yes, wet suits will be in order. Too bad about Costa Maya; that's the only negative with cruises, you have a one shot deal being in port one day. That's why we decided to do the Keys thing for a full week. We got canceled out of 2 dives last Christmas on a cruise. Sad faces on the rest of the cruise from the teens. Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

299. conchygirl 02:46 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
Quoting zoomiami: Evening all - definitely the best weather of the year - can actually get out of some of the cold weather clothes. Down here these clothes could last you a lifetime, only get used a few days each year normally. Conchy - how far north of me are you? 47 is a bunch cooler than we are. Hi Zoo - long time no talk to! We are about 180 miles North of you (Melbourne) Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

300. surfmom 02:46 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
That's true Zoo, but don't those clothes feel heavy? and wool urghhhhhh it's sooo Itchy. Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

301. GeoffreyWPB 02:52 GMT le 17 novembre 2008
not that old surfmom..just love old movies and music..(my parents stuff)...one of my favorite flicks (since it is that time of year) is Miracle on 34th Street. Also, the original 60's Rudolph. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

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