Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:25 GMT le 15 novembre 2008 +3
A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters
Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires
Categories: Fire
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351. WxLogic 11:55 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Hehe... got to head out as I need to get to work. I'll be lurking from time to time. Have a nice day.
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721
352. Bonedog 12:01 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
looking at the model runs looks like the Northeast and most of the EC will see winds and cold weather for the forecasted future. Seeing a Low develope and race north while a high is set up over the ohio valley, should make for a tight pressure gradiant so a cold north wind.
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
353. Thundercloud01221991 12:01 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Quoting WxLogic:
346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P


I am only expecting to get between 6 and 12 inches that is like a normal winter couple of days
Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693
354. Bonedog 12:21 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
CONUS in the freezer next two weeks.

Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
355. Bonedog 12:28 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Clear
Temp: 30°F
Humidity: 80%
Wind Speed: SW 5 MPH
Barometer: 30 in.
Dewpoint: 25°F
Wind Chill: 26°F

latest conditions by me.
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
356. stoormfury 12:32 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
possibly sub tropical storm Rene west of the Azores this week?
Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2320
357. MissNadia 12:33 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
338
Mr Da Hood...lot of hot air in that yard!...... Good morning to you!!!!!
Member Since: 27 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2698
358. Thundercloud01221991 12:35 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Light Snow/Fog

29°F
(-1°C)
Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: W 19 MPH
Barometer: 29.92" (1013.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 25°F (-4°C)
Wind Chill: 20°F (-7°C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi
Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693
359. pottery 12:41 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Morning all
Temp 82 F
Chance of rain, 30%
heheheh
Not in for long, just till I finish this cup.......
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866
361. stormwatcherCI 13:03 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
I take it you have not been in Grand Cayman too long. This is how cold fronts affect us. Some can and do just as much damage as a hurricane. Especially on the waterfront in George Town.
Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8063
362. Bonedog 13:13 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
from looking at the scientific data I am wondering if a tsunami was generated. The tensor data was a true thrust fault EQ.

-------
-------- ------
---------- P --------
------------ ----------
-----------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
----####################---------
#############################----
################################-
############### ###############
-############## T ##############-
--############ #############-
----########################---
-----###################-----
-------###########-------
---------------------
-----------------
-------


Reported shake map shows some folks reported violent shaking.

Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
363. TampaSpin 13:14 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Quoting leftovers:
good morning all another major earthqk over there in indo


7.5 and alot of 5 in the area.....while nothing big is happening along the East Pacific.....looks scary when pressure is released somewhere pressure is built......
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
364. TampaSpin 13:21 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
365. TampaSpin 13:23 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
366. Bonedog 13:23 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
new EQ at the North Pole

Magnitude 5.7
Date-Time Monday, November 17, 2008 at 12:55:23 UTC
Monday, November 17, 2008 at 04:55:23 AM at epicenter

Location 79.656°N, 116.072°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region ARCTIC OCEAN

Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
367. Bonedog 13:26 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
for the indo EQ

WEPA40 RJTD 161719
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY NWPTAC(JMA)
ISSUED AT 1717Z 16 NOV 2008
HYPOCENTRAL PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME:1703Z 16 NOV 2008
PRELIMINARY EPICENTER:LAT 1.2NORTH LON122.2EAST
MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
BORNEO - SULAWESI
MAG:7.6(MW)
BY PTWC

EVALUATION
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE REGIONAL TSUNAMI

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
CELEBES SEA

ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE AMPLITUDE
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
DAVAO 06.9N 125.7E 1807Z 16 NOV 0.5M
CELEBES SEA
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
ZAMBOANGA 06.9N 122.1E 1749Z 16 NOV 1M
TARAKAN 03.3N 117.6E 1745Z 16 NOV 0.5M
MANADO 01.6N 124.9E 1718Z 16 NOV 2M
TOLITOLI 01.1N 120.8E 1727Z 16 NOV 1M

AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST

HOWEVER AT SOME COASTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE EPICENTER, HIGHER
TSUNAMIS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN OUR ESTIMATION AT THE NEARBY
FORECAST POINTS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY

FURTHERMORE THE EVALUATION OF TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL AND ESTIMATED
ARRIVAL TIME OF TSUNAMIS MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM THOSE OF PTWC
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD USE THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIMES FOR
GREATEST SAFETY

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE
OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
368. TampaSpin 13:35 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
I just added a Tsunami Warning to my blog thats stays updated with a link..
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
369. aquak9 13:39 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
San Diego area, really closer to the Palomar Observatory, had a 4.1 recently as well.
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036
370. Bonedog 13:39 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
looking around the net no reports of a tsunami, alot of damage though and a few deaths and numerous injuries.
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
371. TampaSpin 13:40 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
17-NOV-2008 12:35:42 33.50 -116.86 4.1 8.4 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
372. Bonedog 13:49 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
MAP 5.3 2008/11/17 13:16:37 -16.546 172.277 85.2 VANUATU REGION
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
373. Bonedog 13:50 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
MAP 5.0 2008/11/17 11:31:53 -11.504 166.095 85.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
374. RTLSNK (Mod) 13:55 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Morning everyone, 33 F in Macon, Ga , good thing we covered the veggie garden last night, humidity is at 89%, yard was all frosty white this morning! Whats up with the earth shaking all over the world?
Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15774
375. Bonedog 13:56 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
alot of 5s going off this morning. Earth must be stretching a little
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
376. Bonedog 14:00 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
as I am watching the EQ map new EQs popping up all over the place LOL 3.3 just went off in Nevada
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
377. Bonedog 14:05 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
wierd.. looking at a recent EQ list seems like something is up at The Geysers, CA

a 1.8, 1.2, now a 2.5 also getting shallower to 3.1, 3.4, 1.2 respectively
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
378. TampaSpin 14:11 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Bonedog i have had my concern along the West coast for some time now from lack of activity. Where pressure is released in one place creates tension and pressure somewhere else......
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
379. MissNadia 14:21 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 27 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2698
380. RTLSNK (Mod) 14:25 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
We had friends that used to live in Laguna Beach, Ca and we went out there to visit one summer. We were sitting at the breakfast table one morning when all the dishes and glasses in the house started to make noise, my wife and I held on to the table while our friends got big grins on their faces and said "don't panic, its just a little trembler", it happens all the time! My wife looked at me at almost the same instant and we both said We are out of here!!!
Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15774
381. TampaSpin 15:04 GMT le 17 novembre 2008    
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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