Venice suffers its fourth-worst flood since 1872

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19:59 GMT le 03 décembre 2008

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Venice, Italy, suffered ocean flooding 1.56 meters (5.1 feet) above mean sea level on Monday, December 1, its fourth-worst flood since modern record keeping began in 1872. The flooding was triggered by a strong low pressure system that passed through Europe, dumping rains of 1-2 inches that helped fill the salt-water lagoon surrounding Venice with high levels of river run-off. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the low brought warm, southerly winds up the length of the Adriatic Sea, which piled up high levels of ocean water into the lagoon. Sustained winds reached 30 mph on the morning of December 1 in Venice. High tides submerged the city again yesterday, but only to a depth of 1.02 meters. As the low pulls away from Italy and river run-off gradually subsides, no further flooding of Venice should occur this week.


Figure 1.Flooding in Venice from the December 1, 2008 flood. Image credit: Venice Water Authority.

Sinking land, rising seas
When Venice was founded sixteen hundred years ago, sea level was about six feet lower than today. Sea level has risen over the centuries as a natural response to our continued emergence from the last Ice Age, thanks to melting of glaciers and ice caps. Global sea level rose eight inches during the 20th century (2 mm/year). The sea level rose by only about 4-5 inches in the Adriatic Sea near Venice during that time, though. However, the rate of global sea level rise has increased by 50% to 3 mm/year in recent decades and was 5 mm/year near Venice during the period 1993-2008. As the seas have risen, Venice has sunk. Since 1897, natural compression of the sediments Venice sit on has resulted in the city sinking about 1.5 inches. Additional sinking of three inches due to pumping of fresh water from an aquifer beneath the lagoon between the 1920s and early 1970s has left the city 4.5 inches lower than at the beginning of the century. In 1900, famed St. Marks Square flooded at high tide six times per year, on average. By 1999, that number had increased to 99 times per year, thanks to the combined effects of higher sea levels and the sinking of the city.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Venice. The city is on an island in a lagoon that opens to the ocean in three places. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jetties
Jetties built at the three entrances to Venice's lagoon help to hold back the sea, but have also acted as barriers to the natural inflow of fresh sand to replenish beaches within the lagoon. This sand now accumulates along the jetties. The jetties also act as barriers that disrupt ocean currents and contribute to coastal erosion.

Barrier island erosion
Venice's lagoon is protected by a number of barrier islands. These islands are steadily eroding, due to construction projects, summer beach crowds, and beach-going vehicles. Sea walls were built along many of these barrier islands in the 14th century, but high tides now regularly overtop these sea walls.

Salt marsh erosion
Additional flooding in Venice occurs because the protective salt marshes in the lagoon surrounding the city are steadily eroding. This is largely due to the fact that 600 years ago Venice diverted the courses of the four major rivers that flowed into the lagoon, forcing them to empty into the ocean directly. This was done so that sediments would not build up and allow attackers to approach the city via land. Without new sediments to replenish them, the marshes in the lagoon have been steadily eroding away. Water pollution has also contributed to erosion problems. The pollution kills eelgrass, the chief building block of the salt marshes.

Protecting Venice
The "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predicts a 0.6 - 1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100. However, they cautioned in their report that due to the lack of knowledge about how melting glaciers behave, the actual sea level rise might be higher. A paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science this September concluded that when considering these unknown glacier melting processes, the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (0.8 - 2.0 meters). These sea level rise possibilities make it imperative that Venice construct barriers to keep the sea out. In 2003, construction began on the MOSE Project, a $5.5 billion system of inflatable gates that will rise up out of the ocean bed to block incoming storm surges from the Adriatic Sea during storm situations. The barriers will block all three entrances to Venice's lagoon, but allow ship traffic to pass through using a lock system. The gates are scheduled to be completed in 2012. In theory, the gates will protect Venice up to a maximum sea level rise of two meters (6.6 feet), which should be adequate for the remainder of the century. However, some scientists have argued that the gates will only protect Venice up to a sea level rise of one foot, and will allow high levels of toxic pollution to build up in the lagoon without the cleansing action of the tides to disperse the pollutants. A 2005 paper warned that if sea level rises 0.5 meters (1.6 feet), the gates would still allow considerable flooding of Venice, and block or delay 2/3 of all shipping traffic trying to pass through the gates.


Figure 3. Schematic drawing of the MOSE gate in the inflated (closed) position. Normally, the gate lies flat on the ocean bottom. When a storm surge threatens, the hollow top of the gate will be filled with air, and the hinged gate will rise to the surface, blocking any incoming storm surges. Image credit: Venice Water Authority.

Resources
The Venice Water Authority has complete info on the MOSE construction project.
NOVA aired a 1-hour show in 2002 on the sinking of Venice, and has some nice interactive web features to look at.

Jeff Masters

St Marks Cathedral Venice (ARG)
St Marks Cathedral Venice
St Marks Cathedral Venice
sunrise Venice (donjuan)
Grand Canal elegence
sunrise Venice

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234. jride
22:14 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN:

NO TIME TO STAY ON THE BLOG... ALTHOUGH: THANKS TO THOSE OF YOU WHOM HAVE EDUCATED ME OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS.

I AM A CATASTROPHE (WIND) ADJUSTER LOOKING FOR INFORMATION ON SURVIVORS OF HURRICANE IKE. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION, PLEASE SEND AN EMAIL TO JASONCZERWINSKI@YAHOO.COM

I AM ATTEMPTING TO CLOSE FILES FOR THOSE CLAIMS DOWN ON THE SHORELINE AND AM MAKING A FINAL ATTEMPT WITH DIFFERENT AVENUES TO COLLECT AS MUCH INFORMATION I CAN TO HELP BOTH INSURED AND TWIA.

THANKS.

JASON
233. IKE
21:57 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
New blog folks......
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
232. Drakoen
21:14 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
Drak,
Either solution,sounds like it spells trouble for the northeast


The jet stream will steer it up the eastern seaboard as coastal system. It will be a problem on the backside of the low behind the 0C line at the surface and the negatives at 850mb the 540dm looks well inland perhaps not until the low moves up north into the Gulf of Maine will the residual moisture allow snowfall closer to the coast. The prospects look good for the inland areas as for a snowfall is concerned the ECMWF has a more degenerative process with the low moving out farther east, the CMC and GFS looks to have more aggressive solutions with the development of the frontogenesis and cyclogenesis when the low tracks up the eastern seaboard.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
21:09 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Subject: Deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

At 23:30 PM IST, The Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered near 8.5N 87.0E, about 900 km southeast of Chennai, India, 800 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam, India, and 600 km east of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts skirting north Sri Lanka coast during next 72 hours.

Based on the latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, the estimated future track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Current (23:30 PM IST)
8.5N 87.0E - 30 knots
24 HRS: 9.5N 84.0E - 35 knots
48 HRS: 10.0N 81.0E - 35 knots
72 HRS: 10.5N 78.0E - 25 knots
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
229. NEwxguy
21:01 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Drak,
Either solution,sounds like it spells trouble for the northeast
Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
226. Drakoen
20:40 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
The last two GFS runs look interesting conducting baroclinic cyclogenesis along the tail end of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. If the forecast hold true that would be some beneficial rains for the deep south. The ECMWF looks likes this solution but shows the development occurring a little later as some shortwave energy ejects around the base of a longwave trough over the ECONUS. The CMC has a more aggressive solution with the vertically titled low evolving deeply in the mid and upper levels lower the 500mb heights behind the surface low. Will be interesting to see which solution pans out.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
225. pottery
20:25 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
True, DDR.
How are you doing ?
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
224. DDR
20:22 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon.
Temp 79F
Wind, Calm.
It is raining. Nice, gentle, constant rain.
AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!

typical december rains my friend.
Member Since: 27 avril 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
223. pottery
20:17 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Good afternoon.
Temp 79F
Wind, Calm.
It is raining. Nice, gentle, constant rain.
AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
222. NEwxguy
19:56 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
NE I noticed that. The tuesday storm on these runs seems to be a ridge runner the late week system has the biggest potential right now.

I am still keeping my eye on the tuesday system for my area if it runs more offshore then the models (which just happened today actually) show then its a winter wonderland here. By you though would maybe see a changeover late at night to snow but mostly a rain event for you.

The late week storm has the distict possiblity of being the biggie for the I-95 though.

Still wishcasting for the tuesday one though =)

LET IT SNOW
LET IT SNOW
LET IT SNOW


LOL,neighbors must be getting tired of seeing you out there doing your snow dance,but in a very active pattern,so one of these is going to hit us,talking maybe upper 50's at some point for us Tuesday.
Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
221. Bonedog
19:27 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
NE I noticed that. The tuesday storm on these runs seems to be a ridge runner the late week system has the biggest potential right now.

I am still keeping my eye on the tuesday system for my area if it runs more offshore then the models (which just happened today actually) show then its a winter wonderland here. By you though would maybe see a changeover late at night to snow but mostly a rain event for you.

The late week storm has the distict possiblity of being the biggie for the I-95 though.

Still wishcasting for the tuesday one though =)

LET IT SNOW
LET IT SNOW
LET IT SNOW
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
220. NEwxguy
19:21 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Hey,Bone,looks like the Tuesday storm is going to be mostly wet for us,but a late week storm may be different
Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
219. Bonedog
19:14 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
MORE IMPORTANTLY...STRONG WINDS USHERING IN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
WINDS
(25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 40S MPH) LATE SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT...STRONG CAA AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BETWEEN BOMBING LOW OVER GEORGES BANK AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO TEENS/LOWER 20S AREAWIDE...WITH WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS CITY/COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO INTERIOR.

going to be a cold weekend folks!!
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
218. Bonedog
18:55 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
hey folks
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
217. Hurricane4Lex
18:14 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Here's an article (link) to read concerning Our (US) economy

not good at all

Link
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
216. WxLogic
17:49 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Good afternoon...
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
215. futuremet
17:45 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Back from School

It looks like tropical cyclone seven in the Indian Ocean remain relatively the same. Some strengthening is possible tomorrow, as shear decreases.

I JUST HOPE THE GFS MODEL IS WRONG ABOUT THIS FORECAST. It Has been forecasting a tropical cyclone to hit Bangladesh for the past 48 hours now.

GFS MODEL

SELECT THE FOLLOWING

Level: 925 MB and MSL

Domain: Southern Asia
Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
214. BtnTx
17:33 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
"The price of Brent crude oil slumped to 39.77 dollars a barrel in trading here on Friday -- the lowest point in almost four years -- on prospects of a severe drop in energy demand, traders said. "

From Breitbart.com.

I am not sure whether this is good or bad news. Maybe it is not news at all...
Member Since: 12 octobre 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 888
213. TampaSpin
16:45 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
One thing of note! The storm that is predicted next week seems to be looking stronger on models on the last runs......Go to my blog to look at the models....Next week looks like a major extreme weather week with a very strong NorEaster developing and severe weather in the South.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
212. TampaSpin
16:41 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Everyone have a good day......IM out till late evening.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
211. TampaSpin
16:40 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
The Jobless claims was almost Double what was expected in November.....get ready for a rough ride on Wall Street....no bottom yet!

Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
210. TampaSpin
15:58 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting 15hurricanes:
1851 to 1994 Atlantic hurricane seasons!

"WE JUST CAME OUT OF AN INACTIVE PERIOD (that ended in the mid-1990's)." he said.


Why aren't you in school....Isn't grade school in session today......ROFLMAO
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
209. zoomiami
15:19 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


No way.. she fibs :)


lol
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
208. Orcasystems
15:02 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Latest message from surfmom, comment 333 in my blog. Keep the prayers and good thoughts flowing :)

Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
206. sporteguy03
14:18 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for that tragic update, I hope you have a great day!
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
205. Orcasystems
13:55 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting zoomiami:


Hmm - about the house trained part, would have to have your significant other weigh in on that one.


No way.. she fibs :)
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
203. zoomiami
13:42 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Everyone should have ORCA's. we make great pets, and we can be house trained :)


Hmm - about the house trained part, would have to have your significant other weigh in on that one.
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
202. Orcasystems
13:13 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning all from Coastal N.C.
50F
Calm wind
cloudy skies with good vis.
NO ORCAS HERE...yet!


Everyone should have ORCA's. we make great pets, and we can be house trained :)
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
201. Orcasystems
13:12 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Cancun, where I will be on Tuesday :)

60 °F
Partly cloudy

* Feels Like: -
* Wind: NW 4m/h

* Relative Humidity: 94%
* Pressure: 1,019.10 mb
* Visibility: 6.8 miles
* Ceiling: 30000 ft


Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
200. Orcasystems
13:10 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Good Morning all :)

Victoria BC

37°F

* Wind: NE 6m/h
* Sunrise: 7:50
* Sunset: 16:18

* Relative Humidity: 93%
* Pressure: 1,024.40 mb
* Visibility: 0.0 miles
* Ceiling: ft

Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
198. MissNadia
11:50 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Good Morning all from Coastal N.C.
50F
Calm wind
cloudy skies with good vis.
NO ORCAS HERE...yet!
Member Since: 27 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2868
197. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
09:33 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
darn and here the current temperature reads 3F (-16C)
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
196. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
09:31 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-F
21:00 PM FST December 5 2008
==========================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1006 hPa) located near 21.6S 167.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots. Position GOOD based on Multispectral Infrared/Enhanced Infrared Radar with animation and 0802z Quikscat Pass. Sea Surface Temperature is around 29C.

Gale-Force Winds
=================
expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours within 150 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

Mid-upper level convection remains sheared to the east and south of Tropical Depression TWO with low level circulation center exposed. "TWO" remains in a moderately sheared environment and is located to the east of a mid-level trough. Global models [UKGS/US/EC] are showing little deepening of Tropical Depression TWO in the next 24 hours and are moving it southwest.

POTENTIAL FOR Tropical Depression "TWO" TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
195. Bobbyweather
09:10 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Man, it's really cold here..-4C was the high. Tomorrow morning's forecast temperature is -12C (around 10F).
Member Since: 7 septembre 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2649
194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
08:22 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 05/0717 UTC 2008 UTC.
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1006 hPa) located near 21.6S 167.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
=================
expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours within 150 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TD02F.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
07:43 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIX
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
8:30 AM IST December 5 2008
======================================

Subject: Deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal: Pre-cyclone watch for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts

At 8:30 AM IST, The Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred near 7.5N 88.5E, or about 650 km southwest of Port Blair, India, 1100 km southeast of Chennai, India, and 800 km east-southeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka.

Additional Information
=======================
Satellite imagery indicates more organized convection during the past 12 hours. The system shows the curved band pattern with Dvorak Intensity of T2.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots and a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection observed over area between 5.5N to 10.0N and 83.0E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15-20 knots. Wind shear tendency shows no significant change during the past 24 hours. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 12.0 hence, the system lies in a favorable upper level divergence zone for intensification.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast during next 72 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current(0830 AM IST): 7.5N 88.5E - 30 knots
24 HRS: 8.5N 86.5E - 35-40 knots
48 HRS: 9.0N 84.5E - 40-45 knots
72 HRS: 9.5N 82.5E - 40-45 knots

--
I hope the IMD keep the bottom information, the future track and predicted intensity, for future cyclones as well.. a nice feature for them to bring to their bulletin/advisories.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
192. TampaSpin
07:13 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting 15hurricanes:
4 different places in Florida!

1) Northwest Florida: Tallahasee, Pensacola and Panama City!

2) North Florida: Gainesville, Ocala, St. Augustine and Jacksonville!

3) Central Florida: Tampa, Orlando, Venice, Sarasota, Cocoa and Melbourne!

4) South Florida: Naples, Sanibel Island, Miami, West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Key West and Hollywood!


Completely wrong......You need to stay up north and keep your brain frozen....maybe they will find a cure for you!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
191. TampaSpin
07:04 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Quoting 15hurricanes:
I really love my owned hurricane sites !!!!

I don't need TampaSpin's sites EVER !!!!!!!

I'm very very very very bored of TampaSpin EVER !!!!!!!! That's very very very very gross !!!!

Cool it !!!!!!!!!!




15hurricanes I really appreciate the kind words. Sorry if i bore you and gross you....WOW
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
05:19 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
GALE WARNING 002 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 05/0345 UTC 2008 UTC.
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1005 hPa) located near 22.0S 167.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
=================
expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours within 150 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TD02F.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
189. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
04:27 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
05:30 AM IST December 5 2008
=========================================

Subject: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

At 5:30 AM IST, The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and intensified into a deep depression. The Deep Depression lays centered near 7.5N 88.5E or about 650 kms southwest of Port Blair, India, 1100 kms southeast of Chennai, India, and 800 kms east-southeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka.

Additional Information
=======================
Satellite imagery indicates more organized convection during the past 12 hours. The system shows the curved band pattern with dvorak intensity of T2.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection observed between 5.5N to 10.0N and 83.0E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15-20 knots. Wind shear tendency shows no significant change during the past 24 hours. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge. which roughly runs along 12.0N hence, the system lies in favorable upper level divergence zone for intensification.

Considering all the above, The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
188. Stormchaser2007
03:25 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
Well after days of searching I finally found a Tropical Weather Outlook archive that goes back to 2000....Send me a WU mail and ill send you the link.

Thought this was kinda interesting....just goes to show you how big Wilma was.

550
ABNT20 KNHC 120840
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNUSUALLY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA... AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA... WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND THEN
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION
...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
187. GeoffreyWPB
03:23 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
futuremet...good video, tech. wise...but would not call it the "Best" of 2008. Many people died and sustained major damage that will change their lives forever... and I would not deem that a good title.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
186. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
03:14 GMT le 05 décembre 2008


Deep Depression (T2.0) from India Meteorological Department
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
185. GeoffreyWPB
03:10 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
remember surfmom...you always have friends...love Clarence
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
184. futuremet
03:03 GMT le 05 décembre 2008
TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 ANALYSIS

The tropical disturbance near Sri Lanka has gotten more defined today, thus, it is now upgraded to tropical cyclone number 7. According to the latest satellite imageries, thunderstorm activity has increased substantially, and it seems that the majority of the circulation is embedded within the primary convection mass. Environmental conditions are not as favorable as yesterday due to an increase in vertical wind shear levels. However, wind shear levels are expected to decrease again to about 5-10 knots, hastening tropical cyclogenesis. Furthermore, an adjacent anticyclone will help it distrubute its energy with greater efficacy, by reinforcing lower level convergence and upper level divergence. Despite the favorable conditions, this system is not expected to become a vigorous tropical cyclone, due to the lack of time it will be over water. The cyclone is expected to make landfall in Sri Lanka around Sunday morning, and will perhaps be a weak category cyclone or a 60-70 MPH storm. Regardless, it is still best that residents in this area prepare for this system, in case something unexpected happens.

An anticyclone to its north is the primary steering current for this system, thus, a general track towards the West-northwest is highly reasonable.


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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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