Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Is the globe cooling?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:48 GMT le 04 février 2009

Recently, one has been hearing statements in the media like, the "twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming" and the Earth has been cooling since 1998. Let's take a look at the validity of these statements. The warmest year on record, according to both NASA and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), was 2005. However, 1998 was virtually tied with 2005 for warmth, and the United Kingdom Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit data set (HadCRU) rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The three data sets use different methods, such as how they interpolate over missing data regions over the Arctic Ocean, and so they arrive at slightly different numbers for the the global average temperature. All three data sets are considered equally valid, so ignoring two of the three major data sets to claim that the globe has been cooling since 1998 is "cherry picking" the data to show the result you want.

Furthermore, 1997-1998 El Niño event was the second strongest of the past century. El Niño events directly warm a large part of the Pacific, and indirectly warm (via a large increase in water vapor), an even larger region. This extra warming--estimated to have boosted the global temperature an extra 0.1-0.2°C--made 1998's warmth spike sharply upwards from the globe's usual temperature. The climate is best measured by a multi-year average of global temperatures, in order to remove shorter-term oscillations in weather patterns like El Niño. It is not scientifically valid to base a cooling argument on a year that spiked sharply upwards from the norm because of one the largest El Niño events in recorded history. A valid way to measure whether the globe is warming or cooling is to use the average global temperature for the past ten years or longer. The 1999-2008 period was significantly warmer (by 0.18°C, according to NOAA) than the previous ten year period, despite the fact the record (or near-record) warmest year 1998 was part of this previous period. Thus, it is scientifically correct to say the globe has been warming since 1998, not cooling. This warming rate has been about 0.16°C per decade over the past thirty years. Note that even over time periods as long as eight years, the average global temperature is not always a good measure of the long-term global warming trend--particularly if a large volcanic eruption in the tropics occurs.

How often should we expect to see a new global temperature record?
The climate should warm at a rate of about 0.19°C (0.34°F) per decade, according to the computer climate models used to formulate the "official word" on climate, the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thus, we should expect to see frequent "warmest years on record". However, 2006, 2007, and 2008 were all cooler than 2005, and 2008 was merely the ninth warmest year on record. We know that the weather has a high degree of natural variability, with warmer than average years mixed in with cooler ones. How often, then, should we expect to set a new global temperature record if the climate is warming in accordance with global warming theory?

Figure 1. Predicted and observed global annual average temperatures between 1990-2008. The thin colored lines represent 55 individual runs of the twenty computer climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report. These runs were done for the A1B "business as usual" scenario, which most closely matches recent emissions. The thick black line is the multi-model mean, and the thick colored lines with symbols denote actual observations, as computed by the three major research groups that estimate annual global temperatures. The sharp down spike in 1991-1992 is due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which cooled the Earth for two years. You can make these type of plots yourself, using the publicly available PCMDI IPCC AR4 archive. Image credit: Dr. Gavin Schmidt, realclimate.org.

The twenty models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (Figure 1) all predict the climate will warm, but with a lot of year-to-year variability due to natural weather patterns such as El Niño. Some of the IPCC models forecast periods lasting many years (in the extreme case, twenty years) with no global warming, due to natural climate and weather oscillations. If one plots up the cumulative distribution of these IPCC model runs to see how often a global average temperature record should be broken (Figure 2), one sees that the models predict a 50% chance that we'll unambiguously break the record every six years. By an unambiguous record, I mean a record that exceeds the previous one by at least 0.1°C. We've now gone ten years without unambiguously breaking the global temperature record, which the models say should happen 25% of the time. There is a 5% chance we'll go eighteen years without unambiguously breaking the record, so it is quite possible for natural variability in the climate system to obscure the global warming signal for periods of nearly twenty years. If we still haven't had a new global temperature record by 2018, then it is time to question global warming theory. If the theory is correct, there is a good chance that we will break the global temperature record during the next year that has a moderate or stonger El Niño event (and no major volcanic eruption in the tropics, since such major eruptions can dramatically cool the climate). Since we have La Niña conditions to start 2009, it is unlikely this year will break the record.

Figure 2. Cumulative distribution of how long one would have to wait for a new global temperature record to be set between the years 1990 and 2030. Image is based on the twenty climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report, using the A1B "business as usual" scenario. The curves should be read as the percentage chance of seeing a new record (Y axis) if you waited the number of years on the X axis. The two curves are for a new record of any size (black) and for an unambiguous record (> 0.1°C above the previous record, red). The 95% confidence line is marked in gray. The main result is that 95% of the time, a new record will be seen within 8 years, but that for an unambiguous record, you need to wait for 18 years to have similar confidence. Image credit: Realclimate.org.

Is global warming slowing down?
The global average temperature has declined over the past three years (Figure 1) and global average sea surface temperature (SST) has not increased over the past seven years (Figure 3). Is global warming slowing down, then, and taking a break? That was the theory advanced by a group of German climate modelers (Keenlyside et al., 2008) in the journal Nature in 2008. Using a climate model that offered a unique way to handle the initial distribution of SSTs, they concluded that over the next ten years, natural variations in the climate may temporarily mask the global warming due to greenhouse gases. They stated: "North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming". However, they go on to state that greenhouse-gas driven global warming will resume full-force after the ten-year break is over. Other climate modelers disagree with this predicted "break" in global warming. Both theories are reasonable ones, and it is possible that the recent cool years portend the ten-year "break" from global warming hypothesized by Keenlyside et al. It is too early to tell, since the relative coolness of the past few years could easily be natural "noise" (weather) imposed on the long-term global warming trend. The fact that we've had a cold winter in eastern North America and in the UK--or any other anecdotal cold or snow-related record you may hear about--can't tell us whether global warming may be slowing down or not. The amount of global warming over the past century has only been about 1.3°F (0.74°C). Thus, it should not surprise us, for example, if temperatures during tonight's hard freeze in Florida bottom out at 25°F, instead of the 24°F it would have reached 100 years ago. The long-term ten and thirty year trends in global temperature are solidly upwards in accordance with global warming theory, and claims that the globe is cooling cannot be scientifically defended.

Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

References
Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008, "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector", Nature 453, No. 7191, pp. 84-88, May 1, 2008

Further reading
2008 temperature summaries and spin by Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org.

My next post will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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251. NEwxguy 14:21 GMT le 05 février 2009
So how are all the Floridians handling this cold?I need it warmed up for March 4th,heading down there. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

252. Orcasystems 11:41 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting charlottefl: This is bad (for you, not me)... not much difference Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

253. conchygirl 14:23 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: So how are all the Floridians handling this cold?I need it warmed up for March 4th,heading down there. NEwxguy: I am loving the cold weather and we all know it won't last long and we'll be back to sweltering in a few months so soak up that cold in preparation for the heat. March should be gorgeous for you! Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

254. TampaSpin 14:24 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: So how are all the Floridians handling this cold?I need it warmed up for March 4th,heading down there. As cold as it was not a stitch of frost on the ground or on cars.....the air was just that dry...... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

255. Orcasystems 14:24 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: I'm having an ice cold beer. Fosters? Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

256. NEwxguy 14:25 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting conchygirl: NEwxguy: I am loving the cold weather and we all know it won't last long and we'll be back to sweltering in a few months so soak up that cold in preparation for the heat. March should be gorgeous for you! Hope so conchy,its been so cold up here just about all winter,even if it was in the 60's it would fell wonderful,I expect by March,should be seeing 70's. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

257. stillwaiting 14:25 GMT le 05 février 2009
I live in Sarasota,FL right on the beach you can't live any closer to the GOM,and this morning the temp made it down BELOW 32 degree's,the temp was 31.5!!!!!!I'm sure glad I brought in my container plants!!!!...it'll be 70 by sat. afternoon though,gotta love Florida!!!!and its alot better than 5 degrees as a low(which was the low last night in SECT where I grew up).... Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

258. TampaSpin 14:26 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: This is bad (for you, not me)... not much difference Orca.....your system is working well......but i want about a 40mph wind reading to go along with that 34.3deg temp your having.....so im starting a wind dance for you....LOL Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

259. conchygirl 14:26 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: As cold as it was not a stitch of frost on the ground or on cars.....the air was just that dry...... Tampa: that surprised me too as it was 28 at my house and no frost like the last front that came through. Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

260. NEwxguy 14:27 GMT le 05 février 2009
I'm flying into Tampa March 4th,at least I hope so,now the boss doesnt want me to go that time. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

261. TampaSpin 14:28 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting NEwxguy: I'm flying into Tampa March 4th,at least I hope so,now the boss doesnt want me to go that time. Your coming down to observe all the spring breakers.....we know.........LOL....How's POP's doing.. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

263. NEwxguy 14:29 GMT le 05 février 2009
yep Quoting stillwaiting: I live in Sarasota,FL right on the beach you can't live any closer to the GOM,and this morning the temp made it down BELOW 32 degree's,the temp was 31.5!!!!!!I'm sure glad I brought in my container plants!!!!...it'll be 70 by sat. afternoon though,gotta love Florida!!!!and its alot better than 5 degrees as a low(which was the low last night in SECT where I grew up).... yep 4 deg this morning for me just west of boston,not expected to get out of the teens today Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

264. Orcasystems 14:30 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Orca.....your system is working well......but i want about a 40mph wind reading to go along with that 34.3deg temp your having.....so im starting a wind dance for you....LOL Now thats just mean... We live down in a little valley here and get very little in the way of wind. If I went up another 100-150 feet the wind would probably be about 0-5 knots. That being said, when we do freeze, we stay colder longer because the moister warm air off the water takes a little longer to trickle down here. Sort of our own small inversion layer. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

265. NEwxguy 14:30 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Your coming down to observe all the spring breakers.....we know.........LOL....How's POP's doing.. He's having a tough time in the nursing home,thats why I;m going down,to see him and meet with the people at the nursing home. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

266. captainhunter 14:37 GMT le 05 février 2009
Morning all. Panama City Beach came in at 28.8 but stayed there for a while. My huge philodendron that is too big to cover in the back yard bit the dust. I have lived here for five years now and this winter has seen the most freezes of any winter so far and last night's is the first time my big philodendron has succumbed. The mildest winter was the winter of 2004/2005. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

267. conchygirl 14:40 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting captainhunter: Morning all. Panama City Beach came in at 28.8 but stayed there for a while. My huge philodendron that is too big to cover in the back yard bit the dust. I have lived here for five years now and this winter has seen the most freezes of any winter so far and last night's is the first time my big philodendron has succumbed. The mildest winter was the winter of 2004/2005. 2004/2005 - interesting as those were big hurricane years for us - correlation? Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

268. AussieStorm 14:40 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: Fosters? Cant buy Fosters here in OZ anymore. It's an export beer. I'm drinking Cascade Tasmanian made beer,,,,,, its going down very nicely. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13357

269. TampaSpin 14:41 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting captainhunter: Morning all. Panama City Beach came in at 28.8 but stayed there for a while. My huge philodendron that is too big to cover in the back yard bit the dust. I have lived here for five years now and this winter has seen the most freezes of any winter so far and last night's is the first time my big philodendron has succumbed. The mildest winter was the winter of 2004/2005. Hey Captain i have lived in Florida over 20yrs and i just can't remember a winter with these links of cold outbreaks that we are getting....That big High out West is killing us this year..... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

270. stillwaiting 14:44 GMT le 05 février 2009
yea I grew up in Ledyard,CT where the foxwood indian casino is!!!...w/less wind tonight I think it'll get colder quiker vs last night,when at 11pm the winds were 10-15mph and ,my local temp was 41,a stronger wind makes for less radiational cooling....but if the winds do start to come more out of the NE it may not get AS COLD tonight,but get it should get COLDER QUICKER tonight!!!!! Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

271. Skyepony (Mod) 14:46 GMT le 05 février 2009
The NOAA N Prime launch (our newest weather toy that can get exact temps even through clouds & measure CO2 concentrations around the world) that was scheduled for Thursday, February 05, 2009 is morning was scrubbed. There was a Freon leak from the refrigerant unit providing cooling air to the fairing prior to tower rollback. There is a management meeting at noon PST on Thursday, February 05, at VAFB. The MEPED purge will be reestablished and samples from the fairing will be taken. The white room will be reestablished. TS~ I don't understand what GW has to do with Loop eddy currents. Loop eddy currents are fairly well studied & have everything to do with hurricane forecasting not GW. Your saying they are caused by underwater volcanos that aren't there. My point about the blob of warmth off FL is ~ That is from the gulf stream. you can pretty much watch it break off in the link I left you & it is very comparable in size, temp & depth of the 2 in the eastern atlantic that you procaimed, after 2 minutes of me pointing them out to you the other night, that they were caused by volcanos & you have nothing to back that up with. I thought we atleast tried to be accurate here & not spread abunch of opinions with no fact to back them up.. I was just calling you on what I saw as a bunch of bull. Not trying to sit high on a pony..all this vain crap ya'll are dishin~ It's pretty vain to to think your crap don't stink & it ain't pollutin my air. Choose your source they all pretty much say it's raising death rates considerably.. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29355

272. stillwaiting 14:50 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting captainhunter: Morning all. Panama City Beach came in at 28.8 but stayed there for a while. My huge philodendron that is too big to cover in the back yard bit the dust. I have lived here for five years now and this winter has seen the most freezes of any winter so far and last night's is the first time my big philodendron has succumbed. The mildest winter was the winter of 2004/2005. RIP,sorry to here about your loss,lol.....wait another month a plant another one in its memory...I do love gardening as well and I brought in almost all my containers,except my mint,strawberrys and radish....this morning would have definately damaged my others and I'll be keeping them inside until tomorrow afternoon.... Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

273. captainhunter 14:52 GMT le 05 février 2009
267. conchygirl I've wondered about that myself Conchy. Maybe one of our fellow bloggers could draw a connection? Tampa, my wife complains we didn't move far enough south in Florida but no where in the state seems safe this year. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

274. TampaSpin 14:52 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting Skyepony: The NOAA N Prime launch (our newest weather toy that can get exact temps even through clouds & measure CO2 concentrations around the world) that was scheduled for Thursday, February 05, 2009 is morning was scrubbed. There was a Freon leak from the refrigerant unit providing cooling air to the fairing prior to tower rollback. There is a management meeting at noon PST on Thursday, February 05, at VAFB. The MEPED purge will be reestablished and samples from the fairing will be taken. The white room will be reestablished. TS~ I don't understand what GW has to do with Loop eddy currents. Loop eddy currents are fairly well studied & have everything to do with hurricane forecasting not GW. Your saying they are caused by underwater volcanos that aren't there. My point about the blob of warmth off FL is ~ That is from the gulf stream. you can pretty much watch it break off in the link I left you & it is very comparable in size, temp & depth of the 2 in the eastern atlantic that you procaimed, after 2 minutes of me pointing them out to you the other night, that they were caused by volcanos & you have nothing to back that up with. I thought we atleast tried to be accurate here & not spread abunch of opinions with no fact to back them up.. I was just calling you on what I saw as a bunch of bull. Not trying to sit high on a pony..all this vain crap ya'll are dishin~ It's pretty vain to to think your crap don't stink & it ain't pollutin my air. Choose your source they all pretty much say it's raising death rates considerably.. YOu sure your not MichaelStL or maybe his sister.......ROFLMAO Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

276. TampaSpin 14:56 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting vortfix: I guess for those that are not Florida natives this winter would seem like an extremely cold one so far. It has been cold by FL standards...that is true. To me, this winter is part of the normal cycles we see in this state over the decades. Most likely the La Nina factor is largely responsible. I'm sure it is La Nina related....but, many would say it is GW or Climate Change......LOL Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

277. Orcasystems 14:56 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: Cant buy Fosters here in OZ anymore. It's an export beer. I'm drinking Cascade Tasmanian made beer,,,,,, its going down very nicely. I am going to have to find some of my pictures, to see what we were drinking down there.. I know in the surrounding areas (Fiji, Hong Kong)we drank Tiger beer, but in Aus I think we were drinking some brand that was in a green can I think? Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

278. TampaSpin 14:59 GMT le 05 février 2009
Do you all remember what the National Weather Service stated as a long range forecast for winter back in November.....they said the SouthEast would be above average temps and moisture than normal.......LOL...I think they missed that forecast..... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

279. captainhunter 15:00 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting vortfix: I guess for those that are not Florida natives this winter would seem like an extremely cold one so far. It has been cold by FL standards...that is true. To me, this winter is part of the normal cycles we see in this state over the decades. Most likely the La Nina factor is largely responsible. I guess if you've been here all your life this winter isn't that out of the ordinary. The La Nina explanation means we should also be looking forward to an earlier and warmer than normal Spring correct? Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

280. AussieStorm 15:00 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: I am going to have to find some of my pictures, to see what we were drinking down there.. I know in the surrounding areas (Fiji, Hong Kong)we drank Tiger beer, but in Aus I think we were drinking some brand that was in a green can I think? VB or Victoria Bitter Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13357

281. charlottefl 15:04 GMT le 05 février 2009
Something about this is not right...LOL.. I don't even think we're gonna reach our forecast high today Quoting Orcasystems: This is bad (for you, not me)... not much difference Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

282. TampaSpin 15:08 GMT le 05 février 2009
Everyone read this especially you SKY..... It's not Global Warming, it's Ocean Warming Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

283. captainhunter 15:13 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Everyone read this especially you SKY..... It's not Global Warming, it's Ocean Warming Interesting. I guess you could heat the Superdome with a few candles if they burned long enough. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

284. tkeith 15:16 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting captainhunter: Interesting. I guess you could heat the Superdome with a few candles if they burned long enough. You could heat it up real good if we had a decent DEFENSE... Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

286. surferjoe5899 15:19 GMT le 05 février 2009
i dont think research over the last century is enough to speak for global change on an earth that is billions of years old. its like watching my actions for 2 minutes then reporting what i do in a day. 34 degrees in south florida this morning. i think al gore needs to fly his private jet more because im freezing Member Since: 20 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

287. hydrus 15:27 GMT le 05 février 2009
TAMPA SPIN-I read a segment about the deccan plateau years ago,it was many eruptions happening simultaneously around the same time the asteroid impact on the Yucatan Penisula.Going back to the subject of marine volcanoes,we all know that the earth is covered with about 70% water.Not only is there a tremendous amount of volcanism,but vast regions of smokers that produce copious amounts of heat and gases.I believe this not only effects the ocean but the atmosphere also. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

288. captainhunter 15:28 GMT le 05 février 2009
Link I got a pamphlet in the mail yesterday and it outlined a much more pressing scientific debate raging and than mere climate change. Yes, I'm talking about geocentricity. If you want to laugh your ss off check this out. Member Since:* 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

289. surferjoe5899 15:32 GMT le 05 février 2009
it's called the sun. wait til 2012 and everyone will stop talking about the heat and start on the cold...the earth was 6 degrees warmer 1000 years ago when the vikings went to greenland. no one cried then about the polar bears and ice caps. it was actually the little ice age in 1300 that made them retreat and started the plagues throughout the land. Member Since: 20 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

290. atmoaggie 15:35 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: As cold as it was not a stitch of frost on the ground or on cars.....the air was just that dry...... We had a touch of it on autos in SE LA. Not the usual kind that covers the windshield, though. Dew points were not the limiting factor on the low temps...which is why they were as low as they were. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

291. TampaSpin 15:37 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting captainhunter: Link I got a pamphlet in the mail yesterday and it outlined a much more pressing scientific debate raging and than mere climate change. Yes, I'm talking about geocentricity. If you want to laugh your ss off check this out. ROFLMAO........if 97% of 10 scientist are convinced then it must be true.....correct...LOL Member Since:* 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

292. atmoaggie 15:37 GMT le 05 février 2009
But alas it is not I who betray reason and prudent action - it is you with your hurry up and do something, anything, RIGHT NOW!@!!!! Not calling anyone in particular a name here, but the turn of phrase "fools rush in" comes to mind... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

293. surferjoe5899 15:43 GMT le 05 février 2009
i think jeff forgot to mention the 27,000 scientist, 9,000 with phd's, that there is no evidence that humans are responsible for global warming, or as i like to call it, a natural cycle. if al gore really believed in it he would stop flying his private jet around. his hypocrisy reveals the truth. problem is scientist have to lie about it so they can get government money to do research to stop the "crisis". no crises = no money for research. tell you what, my toes really wish global warming wasn't a lie right now. its a cold morning in south florida. Member Since: 20 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

294. surferjoe5899 15:44 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting captainhunter: 267. conchygirl I've wondered about that myself Conchy. Maybe one of our fellow bloggers could draw a connection? Tampa, my wife complains we didn't move far enough south in Florida but no where in the state seems safe this year. not unless you go to key west! Member Since: 20 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

295. barryweather 15:44 GMT le 05 février 2009
Popping in... Our weather station here in Milton, NW Fl, Mid Santa Rosa County recorded a 18.3 F temperature. There was more ice on the pond during our coldest spell last year though.

296. conchygirl 15:46 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting surferjoe5899: not unless you go to key west! Not even, it was nippy there too - this front (I believe) went down through Cuba. Back to work now! Member Since: 11 juin 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

297. atmoaggie 15:47 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting surferjoe5899: i dont think research over the last century is enough to speak for global change on an earth that is billions of years old. its like watching my actions for 2 minutes then reporting what i do in a day. Another analogy: I was on I-10 east of NOLA this morning...looks like there must be nasty traffic on the same road in Jacksonville and Houston as there sure was around NOLA. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

298. captainhunter 15:47 GMT le 05 février 2009
291. TampaSpin ROFLMAO........if 97% of 10 scientist are convinced then it must be true.....correct...LOL Is that not hysterical! It just goes to show you can argue any point and if you aren't open to opposing views your belief becomes your reality. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

300. surferjoe5899 15:50 GMT le 05 février 2009
its one thing to say we are polluting and destroying. that is obvious. but to say that we are so powerful we change the climate. come on now.im all for green technology and not using what we dont need. however, i dont want to be forced to do it because of a lie, a made up crises that people will laugh about in 50 years. this generation is going to look like those witch hunters when we end up in the history books Member Since: 20 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

301. atmoaggie 15:51 GMT le 05 février 2009
Quoting barryweather: Popping in... Our weather station here in Milton, NW Fl, Mid Santa Rosa County recorded a 18.3 F temperature. There was more ice on the pond during our coldest spell last year though. Dang. That is rather chilly for FL. We bottomed out at 25. Below freezing for a total 12 hours...not too bad. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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