An early season Atlantic named storm looking less likely
The possibility of a May subtropical storm forming near Florida next week now appear dim, according to the latest suite of runs by the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models. Yesterday's runs indicated that a small area of low shear air might develop over Florida next week, between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south. However, the latest set of runs are showing a much reduced area of low shear, too small for a subtropical storm to form. Perhaps a better chance for a subtropical storm to form is in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as Subtropical Storm Ana. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
I'll have an update over the weekend if the models indicate a renewed tropical threat; otherwise, have a great weekend, and I'll be back on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Even though I have great respect for Dr. Masters, I must agree with CaneAddict here. Just because one model run set may back off on a possible system (remember at 06Z, the model run set Dr. Master's based his conclusion on, that only three models run - GFS, NOGAPS, and NAM) doesn't mean that we jump aboard with it. In forecasting, one must always look for consistency and support before making conclusions. Just my opinion.
Plus the 00Z ECMWF still showed development.
Is that what the 12Z GFS shows? Can you link me the correct chart to find that?
EDIT in: And naturally this time would be the exception.
Now this is interesting
Sorry, hit post too quick-that was in response to post 39
something to think about and wait and watch for at least
AS IS THIS
Link
and this
If those are right then that low would be sitting over the loop eddy... its not hot enough for rapid intensification but could still possibly develop something... jmho
This does not look to friendly.
here in the blue corner we have the still undefeated doc masters with a perfect record so far...he's lost a few rounds...received a draw two season ago but is still the undisputed middleweight hurricane champ...
and here in the red corner we have the new comers..the challengers..they are a young bunch....with yet a proven record and some are whispering the label "wishcaster"...but they are not without brashness and vim and vigor and are calling the champ out....saying he's past his prime...sight is dimmed from years of hurricane hunter jostling..and they feel he's ready for the big fall and they're lined up to steal his belt...
more to follow sports fans...
ROFLMAO!!!!!
12Z GFS @ 180 hours....
I'm glad I packed the padding for everyone to use that are jumping off the first storm bandwagon with my hurricane season supplies!
Cheers AussieStorm
Watch out big-easy! Where's stormtop?
now you've done it!!
;)
Helpful Online Resources
SJ's has a pretty good list.
Link
thanks
Thanks
Have they rebuilt?
Good suggestion! I'll get them added.
Drak...are you getting those shear charts from here?
Yes.
Probably still in his moms basement/advanced weathercenter 5000. I hear Dell makes some good computers for model runs.
Not to tick you off and yes, the CMC is w-a-y too aggressive a majority of the time, but, how do you know it's not happening?
That hour 132 sure looks interesting...
With the exception of a couple runs, at least it's being consistent.
I would not rule out some development in the GOM, the middle to the end of next week.
And it's also got model support.
gfs shows it also.. different path and strength. ROFL, going to NOLA, go figure
what do you mean? the other models are hedging there bets ....
GFS says,"see I was right!"
CMC says, "given infinite answers of course you are, *rolls eyes* "
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