Still watching for a potential early-season Atlantic subtropical storm
The latest 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to indicate the possibility of an early season subtropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico 3 - 7 days from now. A modest area of low shear air is expected to open up between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south, between Cuba and the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models have not been consistent with the timing or the size of this low shear area, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them back off again from this forecast with Sunday's set of runs. Nevertheless, I'll call once again for a 10% chance of development of a subtropical depression in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, 4 - 7 days from now. There isn't much of a disturbance at present to look at--there are some scattered showers between Cuba and Jamaica, but they are under a hefty 30 knots of wind shear. These showers should gradually increase in intensity and areal coverage over the next two days, and phase space diagrams from Florida State University indicate that an extratropical low may form near the western tip of Cuba 2 - 3 days from now. The storm may then gradually transition to a subtropical or tropical system later in the week, if the shear is low enough. Even if the shear is high and the storm remains extratropical, it could be a substantial rain-maker where it comes ashore. The models target the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle as the most likely landfall location, but it is too early to place any confidence in this track.
There is also about a 10% chance a subtropical storm may form in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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All the heavy weather off to the East of Grand Cayman
Latest SAL image- Link
SREF Ensemble
Updated: 30 min 28 sec ago
Light Thunderstorms and Rain
79 °F
Light Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 30 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.89 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
I say yes.
NAM 84hours:
Looking more and more interesting all the time. If shear eases off another 15 mph in the NW Caribbean I think we would see convection really build and hold. Right now the shear is cutting across from the W and keeping the convection off to the E of where the axis seems to be establishing itself.
I'm thinking more along the lines of the 18z runs since the system is being instigated further south and east than the previous runs. It should move north as the prefrontal trough advects southward. This should allow the system to come over or adjacent to South Florida before entering the GOM. Intensification here is questionable as the system becomes better stacked with a large-scale 500mb low and a negatively tilted upper trough axis. Either way we're looking at totals between 3-5 inches.
We'll probably see some better consolidation tomorrow as shear decreases some more according to the latest GFS run.
Doing great and hope the same is true for you.
Looks like an early season test for the models on tap
Model Cycle: 2009051618
U.S. East Coast (last 4 cycles, lat/lon)
back later
Dang that's sound good. I'll be there in about 30 minutes.
how do you like them cook???
GFS 84 hour
hope that goes a tiny bit south.. for it's own good tampa needs to put that shield down.
ok JFV
yeah all of FL except tampa bay. we got next to nothing from fay!
Hopefully, tomorrow we will have some substantial visible support for the models on the area moving towards the gulf. L8R
Link
..Just do yer Best, In everything you can..
Thats most likely due to the fact that this remains mainly a mid-level system at the moment. Once it gains some surface reflection tomorrow, we should see the wind speeds increase.
Did he leave you a Cold one as he passed hhanna..?
Well here in Rivewview Florida we have had nothing but rain since Tuesday :) and looks like more to come all this week
No, had to grab an Abita Strawberry myself (luckily the fridge is only 5 feet away!)
yea I know
Why thank you. I never start Hurricane season without it!
And then we watch it mill around onshore-waiting to get picked up by the next trough over the CONUS. And the rain-inducing interaction with its attendant cold-front.
Viewing: 601 - 651
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